人民币汇率市场化改革路径选择

The Path Choice of Marketization Reform of RMB Exchange Rate

利率和汇率是市场经济条件下宏观调控的两个重要政策工具。人民币汇率市场化改革作为当下中国经济稳定发展的重要一环。本文首先回顾了历年来汇率制度改革及人民币兑美元走势、重点分析了2018年以来人民币汇率变化特点;然后阐述了汇率波动的相关理论,深刻分析了人民币汇率波动的主要原因,提出人民币汇率政策演变需以市场化为方向的观点;随后对当前实现汇率市场化的外汇形势变化进行了分析;最后提出人民币汇率市场化改革的路径选择建议及配套的监管要求,为人民币汇率市场化改革提供参考。

Interest rate and exchange rate are two important policy tools for macro-control under market economy condition.The market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate is an important part of the stable development of China’s economy.Firstly,this article reviews the reform of exchange rate regime over the years and the trend of RMB to US dollar,and focuses on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate since 2018.Then it elaborates the relevant theory of exchange rate fluctuation,deeply analyses the main reasons for the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,and puts forward the view that the evolution of RMB exchange rate policy should be oriented towards marketization.The changes of foreign exchange situation to realize marketization of exchange rate are analyzed.Finally,suggestions on the path selection of market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate and related regulatory requirements are put forward to provide reference for market-oriented reform of RMB exchange rate.