宏观经济因素对我国石油行业股价的影响分析

Analysis of the Influence of Macroeconomic Factors on the Stock Price of Petroleum Industry in China

石油行业属于受经济周期影响较大的周期行业。随着经济周期的兴衰,其收益会有明显的周期波动,所以研究宏观经济因素对石油行业股价的影响具有重要意义。本文以石油行业板块指数为研究对象,选择了具有代表性的宏观经济变量,运用多元线性回归分析方法,探讨了这些变量对我国石油行业股价的影响,以提炼在我国经济发展中对石油行业股价带来显著影响的宏观经济主要因素。实证研究结果表明社会消费品总额对石油行业股价有正向影响,而国际贸易总额和利率对石油行业股价有负向影响。

The oil industry is a cyclical industry greatly affected by the economic cycle. The industry will rise and fall with the economic cycle, and its earnings will also have obvious cyclical fluctuations. There-fore, it is of great significance to study the influence of macroeconomic factors on the oil industry stock price. This paper takes the oil industry index as the research object, selects the representa-tive macroeconomic variables, uses the multiple linear regression analysis method, discusses the impact of these variables on the oil industry stock price in China, in order to extract the main mac-roeconomic factors that have a significant impact on the oil industry stock price in China’s economic development. The empirical results show that the total amount of consumer goods has a positive impact on the stock price of the oil industry, while the total amount of international trade and in-terest rate have a negative impact on the stock price of the oil industry.