中国医药产品出口潜力探究——基于贸易引力模型

Research on the Export Potential of China’s Trade in Medicines—Based on the Trade Gravity Model

新冠疫情的全球蔓延对我国贸易带来了很大的挑战,但这同时也是我国与全球各国共同抗击疫情进而发展医药产品出口贸易的一大机遇。本文首先在明确我国医药产品的分类后,发现总体医药产品贸易保持持续增长态势。之后提出我国医药产品贸易中存在着我国医疗企业规模小、人才招募不足、国外医疗市场准入条件严和中西方文化差异大的问题。为此,本文通过加入政治、经济、文化等角度的相关解释变量,建立了拓展引力模型来测算我国与所选的60国或地区开展医药产品贸易的潜力。之后从实证分析中发现我国GDP水平越高、进口国人均医疗卫生支出比我国越大、65岁及以上人口占比越高时,医药产品贸易额越大;文化距离越大时,医药产品贸易额反而越小。最后在潜力测算中发现我国与瑞典、瑞士、新加坡和阿联酋这四国在医药产品贸易上有很大的发展空间。基于潜力分析提出以下建议:一是要鼓励医药企业并购重组,加强国际合作,二是要加大医疗研发投入并引进人才,三是要提高我国医药产品知识产权保护意识,四是加强对医药产品监管。

The global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic has brought great challenges to China’s trade, but it is also a great opportunity for China to fight the epidemic with other countries and develop the export trade of medicines. First of all, after clarifying China’s medicines, this article found that the overall trade of medicines maintained a sustained growth trend. After that, it is pointed out that there are some problems in the trade of medicines, such as small scale of medical enterprises in China, insufficient recruitment of talents, strict access conditions for foreign medical markets and large cultural differences between China and the West. For this reason, this article establishes an expanded gravity model to measure the potential of China’s trade in medicines with the 60 selected countries or regions by adding relevant explanatory variables from the political, economic and cultural perspectives. Then from the empirical analysis, it is found that the higher the GDP level of China, the larger the per capita medical and health expenditure of the importing country than China, and the higher the proportion of the population aged 65 and above, the greater the trade volume of medicines;the cultural distance variable has a negative impact on trade. Finally, in the potential measurement, it is found that China has greater development potential in the trade of medicines with Sweden, Switzerland, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. Based on the potential analysis, the following suggestions are put forward: first, we should encourage the merger and reorganization of medical enterprises and strengthen international cooperation;second, we should increase the investment in medical research and introduce talents;third, we should improve the awareness of intellectual property protection;fourth, we should strengthen the supervision of medicines.