城市经济密度与人口密度:房价的中介效应

Urban Economic Density and Population Density: The Mesomeric Effect of Housing Prices

本文建立在分析城市经济密度、人口密度、房价之间的内在机理之上,以我国35个大中城市2012~2021年的面板数据进行实证,结果表明:在研究样本内,城市经济与人口一致性情况存在空间异质性;城市房价在城市经济密度与人口密度之间起部分中介作用,即城市经济密度的变化会引起房价的变化,进而间接影响城市人口密度,其中房价的中介效应占城市经济密度对人口密度总效应的比例为12.23%。因此,面对我国地区之间经济差距大和一些地区高房价抑制人口流入的突出问题,政府一方面应积极以政策为导向以推进区域间的协调发展;另一方面应采用积极的人才引进政策,吸引优质人才的流入。

Based on the analysis of the internal mechanism among urban economic density, population density and housing price, this paper empirically uses Panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2012 to 2021. The results show that there is spatial heterogeneity in the consistency between urban economy and population in the research sample;urban housing prices play a partial intermediary role between urban economic density and population density, that is, changes in urban economic density will cause changes in housing prices, which indirectly affect urban density. The mesomeric effect of housing prices accounts for 12.23% of the total effect of urban economic density on population density. Therefore, in the face of the significant economic gap between regions in China and the prominent problem of high housing prices in some regions suppressing population inflows, the government should actively take policy as a guide to promote coordinated development between regions;on the other hand, active talent introduction policies should be adopted to attract the influx of high-quality talents.