中国汽车产业产销空间分离时空格局及影响因素

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Influencing Factors of Spatial Separation of Production and Sales in China’s Automobile Industry

文章基于2002~2021年省际汽车产销量及相关统计数据,采用ESDA方法和空间面板数据杜宾模型分析了2002年以来我国省际汽车产业产销空间分离的时空演变特征及影响因素。研究表明:2002年以来我国汽车产销规模均快速增长,增速呈现不断放缓趋势并在2018年开始出现负增长;越来越多城市实施限购政策、汽车生产空间格局逐渐固化及部分汽车产地远离消费市场是汽车市场出现产销空间分离的重要原因;输出型市场(产量大于销量)在空间上逐渐固化,输入型市场主要分布于东部地区且呈现出向中西部转移趋势;汽车产量对销量的直接效应不显著而间接效应显著为正,表明汽车产业确实存在产销空间分离现象;GDP、金融业增加值、公路货运量、实施汽车消费激励政策等因素显著提高汽车销量,而城镇化水平、汽车保有量、实施限牌限购政策、COVID-19疫情等因素显著抑制汽车销量。

Based on provincial automobile sales data and related statistical data from 2002 to 2021 and using some methods including ESDA and Dubin model of spatial panel data, this paper analyzes spatiotemporal evolution characteristics for spatial separation of production and sales and influencing factors of automobile industry in China since 2002. The results show that: The scale of China’s automobile market and production has grown rapidly and the growth rate has shown a trend of slowing down and has begun to show negative growth in 2018. More and more cities implement purchase restriction policies, spatial pattern of automobile production is gradually solidified, and some auto-producing provinces are far away from consumer market and other factors are important reasons for the separation of production and sales in the automobile market. The export-oriented market is gradually solidified in space, and imported markets are mainly distributed in the eastern region and show a trend of shifting to the central and western regions. The direct effect of car production on sales is not significant but the indirect effect is significant, which indicates that there is a phenomenon of separation of production and sales in China’s automobile industry. Factors such as GDP, financial added value, road freight volume, and implementation of automobile consumption incentive policies have significantly increased car sales, while factors such as the level of urbanization, car ownership, the policy of restricting purchases and purchases and COVID-19 pandemic have significantly inhibited car sales.