德阳森林火险气象等级系统及预测应用

Forest Meteorological Fire Risk Prediction Model and Its Forecasting Applications in Deyang

为探究德阳森林火险分区,为德阳市构建完备的森林火险预报系统提供技术参考,本文对德阳森林火险概况进行了探讨,并基于最新国家森林火险气象等级标准,结合四川德阳的气候环境及地形特点,建立本地森林火险精细化监测预报模型,并在此模型基础上进行相关的业务系统开发。结果表明,基于智能网格预报制作森林火险气象风险等级预报,其可用性、准确性、产品精细度有明显的提升。选取2023年冬季1月1~20日期间德阳森林火险预报产品进行分析,系统对于11日绵竹市和12~13日中江县西部的森林火险等级预报为3级(中等风险),这与在某一项或多项气象要素超过同期平均水平时,可能出现较高火险的情况相吻合,研究结果将为德阳森林火险预报和防灾减灾提供一定的支持。

In order to explore the values of forest fire danger in Deyang City and provide a technical reference for Deyang to build a complete fire danger rating forecasting system, the gen-eral situation of forest fire danger in Deyang was analyzed, and national standards as well as the lo-cal climatic circumstances and geological features were used to establish forest fire prediction model and develop related system. The results showed that, fire danger rating was forecasted based on intelligent grid forecasting products, and its usability, accuracy and fineness were promoted clearly. The forecasting products from January 1st to 20th in Deyang showed that the results of Mi-anzhu on January 11th and Zhongjiang from January 12th to 13th were the third grade (medium firerisk), which corresponded with the condition that meteorological factors exceeding historical levels for the same period could lead to high fire danger. The research results can provide certain support for local forest fire prediction service and forest disaster prevention.