从几则成语谚语认识一个重要的统计学理论

Understanding an Important Statistic Idea from Some Idioms and Proverbs

“概率论与数理统计”学习中有一个重要的统计学理论:极大似然原理,它是极大似然估计法的理论基础。极大似然原理符合人类的思考方式,即在进行随机试验的时候,如果实际中的一次观测,样本值就出现了,那么有理由认为它实际出现的可能性是最大的。极大似然原理的直观例子和生活例子很多,本文则通过几则成语和谚语去重新认识这个原理,以帮助学生更好地理解和学习它。

There is an important statistical theory in the study of “Probability Theory and Mathematical statistics”: maximum likelihood principle, which is the theoretical basis of maximum likelihood estimation method. The maximum likelihood principle is consistent with the human way of thinking, that is, when conducting a randomized trial, if an actual observation, the sample value appears, then it is reasonable to assume that it is the most likely to actually appear. There are many direct examples and life examples of maximum likelihood principle, this article through several idioms and proverbs to reunderstand this principle, in order to help students better understand and learn it.