摘要
The striking differences and similarities between the “Spanish-flu” of 1918 and the Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) are analyzed. Progress in medicine and technology and in particular the availability of vaccines has decreased the death probability from about 2% for the Spanish-flu, to about 10<sup>-4</sup> in the UK and 10<sup>-3</sup> in Italy, USA, Canada, San Marino and other countries for COVID-19. The logistic map reproduces most features of the disease and may be of guidance for predictions and future steps to be taken in order to contrast the virus. We estimate 6.4 × 10<sup>7</sup> deceases worldwide without the vaccines, this value decreases to 1.6 × 10<sup>7</sup> with the current vaccination rate. In November 2021, the number of deceased worldwide was 5.1 × 10<sup>6</sup>. To reduce the fatalities further, it is imperative to increase the vaccination rate worldwide to at least 120 millions/day and the AstraZeneca vaccine due to its efficacity and cost is a possible route to accomplish this.
The striking differences and similarities between the “Spanish-flu” of 1918 and the Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) are analyzed. Progress in medicine and technology and in particular the availability of vaccines has decreased the death probability from about 2% for the Spanish-flu, to about 10<sup>-4</sup> in the UK and 10<sup>-3</sup> in Italy, USA, Canada, San Marino and other countries for COVID-19. The logistic map reproduces most features of the disease and may be of guidance for predictions and future steps to be taken in order to contrast the virus. We estimate 6.4 × 10<sup>7</sup> deceases worldwide without the vaccines, this value decreases to 1.6 × 10<sup>7</sup> with the current vaccination rate. In November 2021, the number of deceased worldwide was 5.1 × 10<sup>6</sup>. To reduce the fatalities further, it is imperative to increase the vaccination rate worldwide to at least 120 millions/day and the AstraZeneca vaccine due to its efficacity and cost is a possible route to accomplish this.
作者
Hua Zheng
Aldo Bonasera
Hua Zheng;Aldo Bonasera(School of Physics and Information Technology, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an, China;Cyclotron Institute, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA;Laboratori Nazionali del Sud, INFN, Catania, Italy)
