摘要
In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.
In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.
作者
Diop Amadou
Barro Diakarya
Diop Amadou;Barro Diakarya(Université de Ségou, République du Mali, Région de Ségou;Université Thomas Sankara, Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou)
