摘要
With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.
With the development of economy, meat gradually plays an important role in Chinese people’s dietary pattern. As the most direct reflection of agricultural system, food system has always been the main output of agricultural system, and pork has occupied an important position in Chinese food system. We attempts to find the systematical disorder of current agricultural system by analyzing the meat output of the agricultural system. H-P Filter and Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model was adopted to explore the inner rules between pork production and agricultural system in China. The results indicated that pork consumption ratio in Chinese urban residents’ dietary pattern constantly kept about 6%, the growth potential of grain yield is limited while the growth potential of pork yield is increased in China. By Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model, we predicted the pork yield would reach 59.07 Mt in 2020, 110.25 Mt in 2060, 205.78 Mt in 2100, the demand of feed would reach 177.22 Mt in 2020, 330.75 Mt in 2060, 617.34 Mt in 2100. In China, agricultural system is traditional “pork-grain” mode, feed has been one of the biggest section that consumed grain. The present “pork-grain” agricultural system cannot meet the huge demand of grain from feed, adjusting the agricultural structure is imperative. Reforming the current agricultural system into grassland agricultural system which takes the beef and mutton as predominates would be a good choice for China in the future.
