摘要
Bangladesh is a flood prone country where precipitation amount is irregular but sometimes extreme. Among the climatic parameters, precipitation is assumed as one of the vital indicators of ongoing climate change scenarios and is equally important for tea production. In this study, 7 and 9 tea estates of Sylhet and Sreemangal were selected to analyze tea production in relation to extreme precipitation intensity. Precipitation patterns namely 90<sup>th</sup>, 95<sup>th</sup> and 99<sup>th</sup> percentile were analyzed to find out the contribution of extreme precipitation and tea production. To attain the objectives, 3 hourly, daily, monthly, and total precipitation data from 1971 to 2014 were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Agricultural Development Board. Tea production data were collected from Bangladesh Tea Board, Sylhet. To find out extreme level of precipitation 90<sup>th</sup>, 95<sup>th</sup>, 99<sup>th</sup> percentile precipitation days were identified and analyzed. The analyses show that 1974, 1976, 1977, 1993, 1988, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004 were extreme precipitation years. The average precipitation of Sylhet was higher in 2000 than in 1992 and 2014. In Sreemangal, extreme precipitation was higher in 2014 than in 1992 and 2000. For both the regions, tea production was higher in 2000 and lower in 1992 and 2014. The result shows that more extreme precipitation was responsible for higher amount of tea production. The results suggest that extreme precipitation intensity was one of the responsible factors for higher amount of tea production in Sylhet and Sreemangal.
Bangladesh is a flood prone country where precipitation amount is irregular but sometimes extreme. Among the climatic parameters, precipitation is assumed as one of the vital indicators of ongoing climate change scenarios and is equally important for tea production. In this study, 7 and 9 tea estates of Sylhet and Sreemangal were selected to analyze tea production in relation to extreme precipitation intensity. Precipitation patterns namely 90<sup>th</sup>, 95<sup>th</sup> and 99<sup>th</sup> percentile were analyzed to find out the contribution of extreme precipitation and tea production. To attain the objectives, 3 hourly, daily, monthly, and total precipitation data from 1971 to 2014 were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and Bangladesh Agricultural Development Board. Tea production data were collected from Bangladesh Tea Board, Sylhet. To find out extreme level of precipitation 90<sup>th</sup>, 95<sup>th</sup>, 99<sup>th</sup> percentile precipitation days were identified and analyzed. The analyses show that 1974, 1976, 1977, 1993, 1988, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004 were extreme precipitation years. The average precipitation of Sylhet was higher in 2000 than in 1992 and 2014. In Sreemangal, extreme precipitation was higher in 2014 than in 1992 and 2000. For both the regions, tea production was higher in 2000 and lower in 1992 and 2014. The result shows that more extreme precipitation was responsible for higher amount of tea production. The results suggest that extreme precipitation intensity was one of the responsible factors for higher amount of tea production in Sylhet and Sreemangal.
