摘要
Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.
Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.
作者
Ramesh Allipour Birgani
Ali Kianirad
Sakineh Shab-Bidar
Abolghasem Djazayeri
Hamed Pouraram
Amirhossein Takian
Ramesh Allipour Birgani;Ali Kianirad;Sakineh Shab-Bidar;Abolghasem Djazayeri;Hamed Pouraram;Amirhossein Takian(Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutritional Sciences and Dietetics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Researches Institute, Tehran, Iran;Department of Global Health & Public Policy, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Department Health Management, Policy & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran;Health Equity Research Center (HERC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran)
