摘要
This study aims to develop a statistical modelling framework of urban water consumption forecast for the city of Aquidauana, Brazil from year 2005 to 2014, monthly data, using multiple linear regression, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis. These forecasts were based on historical data collected through SANESUL System (Water Systems of South Mato Grosso). The meteorological data were provided by the Water Resources Monitoring Center of South Mato Grosso—CEMTEC. The statistical model developed explains 71.5% of the variance with three factors: number of consumers (19.3%), seasonality (37.8%), and climate regression (14.3%). The model was further validated using an independent set of data from January 2005 to November 2014, with an R2 of 86% and error of 1.7%. The results indicated no intervention of climate variables in the phenomenon. This tool, combined with the perception of the potential and limitations of managers of water resources and public policy makers, can be used in the regulation of per capita consumption, and thereby achieve the optimization of available resources and also contribute to the sustainable perspective of water resources.
This study aims to develop a statistical modelling framework of urban water consumption forecast for the city of Aquidauana, Brazil from year 2005 to 2014, monthly data, using multiple linear regression, cluster analysis, and principal component analysis. These forecasts were based on historical data collected through SANESUL System (Water Systems of South Mato Grosso). The meteorological data were provided by the Water Resources Monitoring Center of South Mato Grosso—CEMTEC. The statistical model developed explains 71.5% of the variance with three factors: number of consumers (19.3%), seasonality (37.8%), and climate regression (14.3%). The model was further validated using an independent set of data from January 2005 to November 2014, with an R2 of 86% and error of 1.7%. The results indicated no intervention of climate variables in the phenomenon. This tool, combined with the perception of the potential and limitations of managers of water resources and public policy makers, can be used in the regulation of per capita consumption, and thereby achieve the optimization of available resources and also contribute to the sustainable perspective of water resources.
