摘要
Assessment of drought vulnerability and occurrence zones in North Central Nigeria was carried out in this study using standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 12 months’ time scale was computed from long-term rainfall data between 1960 and 2015 obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. The SPI results were further subjected to Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope analysis for trend detection. To assess the vulnerability of drought and occurrence zones, the SPI and other geo-spatial techniques were employed to generate drought vulnerability maps for three epochs: 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 respectively. The SPI values were interpolated using Inverse Weighted (IDW) techniques in ArcGIS10.5 to generate the vulnerability maps for the selected model years. The outcome of drought trend and vulnerability maps reveals increasing drought trend dominated by near normal and moderate conditions in Abuja, Ilorin and Lokoja while moderate and severe droughts were observed in Minna and Jos. The study therefore recommends holistic drought monitoring and management strategies in order to mitigate its adverse impact on water resources and rainfall-dependent agriculture.
Assessment of drought vulnerability and occurrence zones in North Central Nigeria was carried out in this study using standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 12 months’ time scale was computed from long-term rainfall data between 1960 and 2015 obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. The SPI results were further subjected to Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope analysis for trend detection. To assess the vulnerability of drought and occurrence zones, the SPI and other geo-spatial techniques were employed to generate drought vulnerability maps for three epochs: 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 respectively. The SPI values were interpolated using Inverse Weighted (IDW) techniques in ArcGIS10.5 to generate the vulnerability maps for the selected model years. The outcome of drought trend and vulnerability maps reveals increasing drought trend dominated by near normal and moderate conditions in Abuja, Ilorin and Lokoja while moderate and severe droughts were observed in Minna and Jos. The study therefore recommends holistic drought monitoring and management strategies in order to mitigate its adverse impact on water resources and rainfall-dependent agriculture.
