摘要
This paper discusses some methodological aspects for the production of susceptibility maps of slope instability developed within the CARG Project (Geological Cartography of Italy at 1:50,000 scale). It describes an example of a susceptibility map in the presence of low susceptibility, using database having zero or negligible cost, with the aim to test some methodologies that can be easily reproducible to get a first estimate of the landslide susceptibility on a wide area. Two statistical approaches have been applied: the non-parametric conditional analysis and the logistic analysis for rare events. The predictive ability obtained from the two methodologies, was evaluated by the success-prediction curves for the conditional analysis, and by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC), for the logistic model. The landslide susceptibility maps have been classified into four classes using both the Natural Breaks algorithm and the method proposed by Chung and Fabbri (2003). The paper considers the influence of these two classification methods on the quality of final results.
This paper discusses some methodological aspects for the production of susceptibility maps of slope instability developed within the CARG Project (Geological Cartography of Italy at 1:50,000 scale). It describes an example of a susceptibility map in the presence of low susceptibility, using database having zero or negligible cost, with the aim to test some methodologies that can be easily reproducible to get a first estimate of the landslide susceptibility on a wide area. Two statistical approaches have been applied: the non-parametric conditional analysis and the logistic analysis for rare events. The predictive ability obtained from the two methodologies, was evaluated by the success-prediction curves for the conditional analysis, and by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC), for the logistic model. The landslide susceptibility maps have been classified into four classes using both the Natural Breaks algorithm and the method proposed by Chung and Fabbri (2003). The paper considers the influence of these two classification methods on the quality of final results.
作者
Vittorio Chiessi
Simona Toti
Valerio Vitale
Vittorio Chiessi;Simona Toti;Valerio Vitale(Geological Survey of Italy, Department of Soil, Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy;Directorate for Methodology and Statistical Process Design, National Institute of Statistics, Rome, Italy;Directorate for Environmental and Territorial Statistics, National Institute of Statistics, Rome, Italy)
