摘要
The verification analysis is applied to medium-range forecast products of T639, ECMWF, Japan model, NCEP ensemble forecast and NMC multi-model integration in late October 2012. The results show that ECMWF model has obvious advantage over other models in terms of height field and precipitation forecast;the westerly-wind index, geostrophic U wind and 850 hPa temperature prediction products can reflect the adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the activity of cold air, which have a good reference for the medium-range temperature forecast in the eastern China;the prediction of ECMWF height field and wind field can well grasp the main weather processes within 192 h, but beyond 192 h the model forecast ability decreases significantly;different models have large deviations in the medium-range forecast of typhoon track and the intensity and range of typhoon precipitation.
The verification analysis is applied to medium-range forecast products of T639, ECMWF, Japan model, NCEP ensemble forecast and NMC multi-model integration in late October 2012. The results show that ECMWF model has obvious advantage over other models in terms of height field and precipitation forecast;the westerly-wind index, geostrophic U wind and 850 hPa temperature prediction products can reflect the adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the activity of cold air, which have a good reference for the medium-range temperature forecast in the eastern China;the prediction of ECMWF height field and wind field can well grasp the main weather processes within 192 h, but beyond 192 h the model forecast ability decreases significantly;different models have large deviations in the medium-range forecast of typhoon track and the intensity and range of typhoon precipitation.
