摘要
There were many developed urban areas have been established without well studied from the hazards perspective. However, Mokattam Plateau is one of the most vulnerable areas of frequent landslides and rock-falls disasters (Moustafa et al., 1991). So, an integrated analysis method is highly needed. Spatial analysis of Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) provided an assessment of the hazards’ factors (i.e. faults, joints, lithology, slope, old wadies/surface drainage, and quarries) at Mokattam area. The data have been analyzed by the MCE, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)/Ordered Weighted Average (OWA)/Weighted Linear Combination (WLC). The research found that the geological factors (faults, joints, and lithology) were the highest contributors by about 65% of the hazardous driving forces, while the geomorphological processes (slope and old wadies/surface drainage) were contributed by about 30%. In addition, the impact of the human activities such as random urbanization, excess use of irrigation water and the transportation are critical hidden drivers that affect the land instability and accelerates the landslides and rock-falls (Amasha, 2009). Therefore, the decision makers and urban planners have to consider the four scenarios of low risk-high tradeoff (MIDAND), and high risk-some tradeoff (MIDOR) in their disaster risk management plans. While the risk-taking (OR) option is highly recommended for the new urban development projects to ensure the sustainability and risk resilience. While the risk-averse (AND) scenario is not recommended.
There were many developed urban areas have been established without well studied from the hazards perspective. However, Mokattam Plateau is one of the most vulnerable areas of frequent landslides and rock-falls disasters (Moustafa et al., 1991). So, an integrated analysis method is highly needed. Spatial analysis of Multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) provided an assessment of the hazards’ factors (i.e. faults, joints, lithology, slope, old wadies/surface drainage, and quarries) at Mokattam area. The data have been analyzed by the MCE, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)/Ordered Weighted Average (OWA)/Weighted Linear Combination (WLC). The research found that the geological factors (faults, joints, and lithology) were the highest contributors by about 65% of the hazardous driving forces, while the geomorphological processes (slope and old wadies/surface drainage) were contributed by about 30%. In addition, the impact of the human activities such as random urbanization, excess use of irrigation water and the transportation are critical hidden drivers that affect the land instability and accelerates the landslides and rock-falls (Amasha, 2009). Therefore, the decision makers and urban planners have to consider the four scenarios of low risk-high tradeoff (MIDAND), and high risk-some tradeoff (MIDOR) in their disaster risk management plans. While the risk-taking (OR) option is highly recommended for the new urban development projects to ensure the sustainability and risk resilience. While the risk-averse (AND) scenario is not recommended.
