A Simple Geospatial Nutrient Budget Model for Assessing Forest Harvest Sustainability across Nova Scotia, Canada

A geospatial GIS-linked spreadsheet model (Nutrient Budget Model—Nova Scotia: NBM-NS) was developed for Nova Scotia to assess the long-term sustainability of forest harvest scenarios as constrained by primary nutrient inputs and outputs due to atmospheric deposition, soil weathering, and leaching. Harvest scenarios refer to user-defined stand-specific removal rates of bole wood, bark, branches, and foliage, based on current or projected forest inventories. These scenarios are evaluated within the context of existing data layers for current climate (mean annual precipitation and air temperatures), atmospheric deposition (N, S, Ca, Mg, K), and soil/substrate types, supplemented by species-specific look-up tables containing expected biomass fractions and nutrient concentrations. This article introduces this model to assess relative site quality and limiting nutrients for red spruce and sugar maple across Nova Scotia. This is followed by an output comparison involving 25 spruce plantations whereby NBM-NS determinations derived using “default” soil survey data are compared with those derived using plantation-specific soil data. Model output shows that (i) Ca and N are the main growth-limiting nutrients across Nova Scotia, (ii) currently projected plantation yields are generally not sustainable on sites underlain by slowly weathering soils, (iii) current soil base cation contents are generally lower than what is reported in historic soil survey reports, and (iv) model results are expected to vary within the context of changing climate, acid deposition levels, and data accuracy.