海河流域水资源脆弱性理论及评价

The Theories and Assessment of Vulnerability of Water Resource in Haihe River Basin

阐述水资源脆弱性的概念,总结国内外水资源脆弱性研究进展及水资源脆弱性评价的内容,包括指标体系的构建、权重系数的确定、以及综合评价方法的选取。以海河流域为研究区域,构建了水资源脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法,对海河流域1998年~2008年8个省(市)及全国的水资源脆弱性进行了综合评价和比较。并以1998年为例,从水资源系统、社会系统等方面分析了各主要因子对水资源脆弱性的影响。本文的综合评价结果能够为海河流域水资源的合理规划和利用提供一定的科学依据。

This paper explains the concept of water resources vulnerability. Research on the vulnerability as-sessment of water resources at home and abroad has been reviewed, including the establishment of an index system, determination of weight coeffients and selection of the method of comprehensive assessment. Finally, an assessment index system of nine indicators is built based on Haihe River Basin, and the principal compo-nent analysis method is applied in 8 provinces of the basin from 1998-2008. A comprehensive evaluation and comparison in the whole country is also given. The result suggests that the water resources of Haihe River Basin is more vulnerable, which is consistent with the practical cases. Take the year 1998 as an example, the impact on water vulnerability of the main components is shown in water system, social system and so on. Above all, the assessment result is satisfying, which can provide reference for the reasonable planning and use of the water resources in Haihe River Basin.