基于SWAT模型的城市水源地对未来气候变化的水文响应

Water Resources Responses to Climate Changes in Xi’an Heihe River Basin Based on SWAT Model

西安黑河流域的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响,将直接关系到西安市约800万人的饮水问题。因此分析研究西安黑河流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点,可为地面调水、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护城市水源地的水资源提供科学依据。本研究以分布式水循环模型为基础,利用西安黑河流域2005~2011年过去7年的水文站实测数据,对2020s^2050s未来40年西安黑河金盆水库入口陈河水文站汛期、非汛期的年径流过程进行了模拟和预测。研究结果表明:西安黑河流域未来水资源量在未来40年内呈现先减少后增加的趋势,其平均径流量将比基准年均有所增减,变幅分别为:?11.0%、?6.4%、7.2%、190%;尤其是在50s汛期平均径流量达到最大值,西安黑河中下游地区防洪形势严峻。

Future Climate changes and its influences on waterresources in Xi’an Heihe River concern the drinking water problems of 8 millionpeople in Xi’an City. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the characteristicsof water resource in response to climate changes for providing scientificfoundation to ground water diversion, dealing with adverse effect of climatechanges and protecting the water sources areas in Xi’an Heihe River. Years 2005-2011were set as the base period, and monthly runoffs were simulated using SWAT inthe base period in Xi’an Heihe Basin. Based on the accurate runoff simulationof the base period, each possible water resource situation under climatechanges scenarios according to the most possible climate change predictions wassimulated in Xi’an Heihe Basin. The result shows that in the future, Xi’an HeiheRiver Basin water resources quantity in the next 40 years showed a trend ofincrease after the first reduce, the average annual runoff growth isrespectively: ?11.0%, ?6.4%, 7.2%, 190% than benchmark;Especially averageflood season runoff reach maximum in the 50s, and the flood control situation isserious in the middle and lower reaches of Heihe region.