基于地理探测器的黄河源区SPEI影响因子研究

Research on the Impact Factors of SPEI in the Source Region of the Yellow River Based on Geo-Detector

由于全球变暖加剧,干旱在世界范围内盛行,严重影响了水资源的管理和利用。为了研究黄河源区SPEI变化及其影响因子,本文根据源区2000~2015年SPEI序列,利用Mann-Kendall检验法和空间分布分析简单说明了黄河源区域2000~2015年的干旱分布情况。并利用地理探测器来研究黄河源区SPEI与各种因子的互馈关系。结果表明:1) 在时间上,黄河源区在2000~2015年期间,SPEI序列呈现不显著上升趋势。在空间上,黄河源区中部地区和东南部地区的干旱情况较为严重,而西部地区只有轻微的干旱情况。整个源区的干旱情况由东部到西部有所缓和。2) 单因子探测中,对SPEI变化影响程度最大的因素为NDVI和土壤湿度,最小的因素为土地利用类型。其中2004年、2005年、2006年以及2009年对SPEI影响程度最大及最小的因素发生了变化。3) 交互作用探测中,双因子间的交互作用均为增强,这说明两因子共同作用时比单因子作用的解释力要强。4) 生态探测中,大多数因子之间是有显著差异的。这说明黄河源区对SPEI变化起主导作用的因子具有独特的作用机理。研究结果可为水资源管理提供有价值的参考和依据。

Due to the aggravation of global warming, drought prevails all over the world, which seriously affects the management and utilization of water resources. In order to study the changes of SPEI and its influencing factors in the source region of the Yellow River, the drought distribution in the source region of the Yellow River during 2000~2015 was simply explained by using the Mann-Kendall test method and spatial distribution analysis based on the SPEI series of the source region during 2000~2015. The mutual feed-back relationship between SPEI and various factors in the source region of the Yellow River was studied by using Geo-detector. The results show that: 1) In terms of time, the SPEI sequence of the source region of the Yellow River showed an insignificant upward trend during 2000~2015. Spatially, the drought in the central and southeastern parts of the source region of the Yellow River is severe, while the drought in the western region is slight. The drought situation in the whole source region eased from the east to the west. 2) In the single factor detection, NDVI and soil moisture were the most influential factors on SPEI change, while land use type was the least influential factor. In 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2009, the factors that affected SPEI most and least changed. 3) In the detection of interaction, the interaction between the two factors was enhanced, which indicated that the interaction between the two factors was stronger than that between the single factor. 4) In ecological exploration, there are significant differences among most factors. These results indicate that the factors leading to the change of SPEI in the source region of the Yellow River have a unique mechanism. The research results may provide a valuable reference and basis for water resources management.