黄石市降水量年际变化分析及趋势预测

Interannual Variation Analysis and Trend Prediction of Precipitation in Huangshi City

本文对黄石市19站点1956年至2022年67年的年降水资料系列进行分析研究,Mann-Kendall趋势检验和P-III曲线法分析年际未呈现显著性变化,年降水量均值为1435 mm,整体随时间呈现小幅度增多。滑动平均值法、K-means聚类法分析黄石市年降水量大约7年为一个变化周期,而模比系数法分析在历年样本数据周期内更容易发生连续偏枯,频率为12.1%远高于偏丰频率的3.0%,旱情发生的频率需要加以重视。R/S分析未来年降水量整体仍为小幅增加,预测2023年~2025年黄石市降水量多年平均值在1450 mm左右,多种分析方法的数据与黄石市的水资源调度管理现行政策较为吻合,未来仍需防汛抗旱并举。

The Mann-Kendall trend test and P-III curve analysis are used to analyze the annual precipitation data series at 19 precipitation stations in Huangshi City from 1956 to 2022 (67 years). The results show that there is no significant change in the interannual variation pattern, and the average annual precipitation is 1435 mm. The overall annual precipitation shows a slight increase. Based on the moving average method and the K-means clustering method, the annual precipitation approaches 7 years as a change cycle, while the modulus coefficient method analysis indicates that continuous drought is more likely to occur in the sample data cycle, with a frequency of 12.1% being far higher than the flood frequency of 3.0%, so the frequency of drought needs to be paid attention. The predicted annual precipitation is 1450 mm from 2023 to 2025 by the R/S analysis method. The data from various analysis methods point out that this is more consistent with the current policy of water resources management, and flood control and drought relief are still needed in the future.