西北地区耦合融雪径流的洪水预报模型及方法研究

Flood Forecasting Model and Method Coupled with Snowmelt Runoff in Northwest China

本文以黑河流域为例,将传统的新安江模型进行改进,加入融雪径流模块,将流域分为低山丘陵带和高山积雪带,分别对其产汇流的机制进行研究。利用SCE-UA算法对模型的参数进行率定,采用确定性系数和纳什效率系数对模型效果进行评价,将传统新安江模型的模拟结果和耦合融雪的新安江模型的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:利用耦合融雪的新安江模型在札马什克和莺落峡两个站的确定性系数分别在0.7和0.8左右,纳什效率系数也均在0.6以上,并且能够较好的模拟出各场次的洪峰流量及洪水过程,说明本文构建的耦合融雪的新安江模型能够适用于黑河流域的洪水预报,研究成果进而对我国西部地区其他以融雪为主的流域洪水预报预警提供一定的技术参考。

This paper improves the Xin’anjiang model by adding the snowmelt runoff module (XAJ-SRM) and dividing the watershed into a low mountain and hilly belt and an alpine snow belt, and studies the mechanism of their flow generation and confluence respectively. The SCE-UA algorithm was used to calibrate the param-eters of the model, and the determination coefficient and Nash efficiency coefficient were used to evaluate the model performance. Taking the Heihe River basin as a case study, the proposed XAJ-SRM model was compared with the Xin’anjiang model. The results show that the determination coefficients of the XAJ-SRM model are around 0.7 and 0.8 at Zamashke and Yingluoxia stations, respectively, and the Nash efficiency coefficients are also above 0.6, indicating that the peak flow and flood process can be well simulated, and also showing that the XAJ-SRM model constructed in this paper can be applied to the flood forecasting of the Heihe River Basin. The research results can provide certain technical references for flood forecasting and early warning of other snowmelt-dominated river basins in northwestern China.