摘要
根据引洮工程受水区四个水文站的1956~2022年实测径流数据,运用趋势检验、小波分析、贝叶斯变点分析模型等方法分析径流年际变化,采用不均匀系数、集中度和集中期等表征径流年内分配情况并研究其变化趋势,结果表明:受水区年径流整体呈显著减小趋势,在年代际差异上存在较强跳跃性,最大概率突变年在1990年前后,此后减小趋势愈发显著;年径流大尺度主周期振幅在2005年以后显著减小,小尺度主周期振荡愈发剧烈,呈现更复杂的变化态势,预计未来2~3年内持续减小;汛期径流显著减小,径流年内分配不均匀程度和集中程度降低。整体来看,受水区径流显著减小,年内分配发生变化,周期振荡愈发复杂,水资源安全保障不确定性加大,亟需优化调控引洮工程供水与水资源配置。
Based on observed runoff data from four hydrological stations in the receiving water area of the Yintao project from 1956 to 2022, a comprehensive analysis of annual runoff inter-annual variability was con-ducted using methods such as trend analysis, wavelet analysis, and Bayesian change-point models. Addi-tionally, characteristics of intra-annual runoff distribution, including the uneven coefficient, concentration degree, and concentration period, were employed to analyze their temporal changes. The results are as follows: The annual runoff in the receiving water area exhibits a significant decreasing trend, with pro-nounced decadal variability in runoff changes. The highest probability of a change-point occurring was around 1990, after which the declining trend became more prominent. On a larger scale, the amplitude of the main periodic oscillations in annual runoff showed a significant reduction after 2005, while small-er-scale oscillations became more intense. Consequently, the annual runoff displayed a more intricate changing pattern, with a projected continuation of reduction in the next 2~3 years. There is a significant decrease in flood season runoff in the receiving area, accompanied by a decrease in the unevenness and concentration degree of intra-annual distribution. Overall, the runoff in the water receiving area signifi-cantly reduced, the intra-annual distribution changes, the cycle oscillation is more complex, the uncer-tainty of water resources security increases, there’s an urgent need to optimize the regulation of the water supply of Yintao project and water resources allocation.
出处
《水资源研究》
2023年第6期553-564,共12页
Journal of Water Resources Research
