资本移动性、定价行为与汇率制度抉择

Capital Mobility, Price-Setting Behavior and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime

本文以新开放总体经济学（New Open Economy Macroeconomics）作为理论基础，延伸Devereux及Engel（1998）的分析架构，探究资本移动性与定价行为在汇率制度抉择议题中扮演的角色。经由理论推导与模拟结果，本文发现浮动汇率制度且按消费者货币定价（PTM模型）之消费波动程度最小，但固定汇率制度（FER模型）与浮动汇率制度并按生产者货币定价（PCP模型）之消费波动程度则应视资本移动程度以及国家规模的大小而定；固定汇率制度下的期望消费高於浮动汇率制度；若考虑资本不完全移动性，浮动汇率制度且按消费者货币定价（PTM模型）之福利水准会高於固定汇率制度（FER模型），而固定汇率制度（FER模型）的福利水准又会比浮动汇率制度并按生产者货币定价（PCP模型）来的高。

Based on the framework of New Open Economy Macroeconomics, we extend the model setup of Devereux and Engel (1998) to investigate how capital mobility and price setting behavior affect the question of the choice of exchange rate regime. According to theoretical analysis and simulation results, the following conclusions were made. Firstly, the variance of domestic consumption is the lowest under floating exchange rate with pricing to market (PTM), but the variance of domestic consumption with fixed exchange rate (FER) and floating exchange rate with producer-currency pricing (PCP) can be different depending upon the degree of capital mobility and the country size. Secondly, the fixed exchange rate will dominate floating exchange rate in terms of the expected level of consumption. Finally, from the perspective of welfare performance, floating exchange rate with pricing to market (PTM) is preferable to fixed exchange rate (FER), and fixed exchange rate (FER) is better than floating exchange rate with producer-currency pricing (PCP) under imperfect capital mobility.