建设创新型经济的宏观税负适度目标区间研究——基于非线性门限面板模型的检验

Study on China’s Appropriate Target of Macro Tax Burden for the Construction of Innovative economy

论述创新驱动经济战略中适度宏观税负研究的重要意义.根据我国1994-2012年省际数据,结合财政支出门限变量,利用门限面板模型分析宏观税负与全要素生产率的非线性关系,并运用GMM方法进行稳健性检验.实证检验得出创新驱动经济增长下我国宏观税负的最优调控区间为14.89％-19.37％.在该区间内宏观税负对全要素生产率的抑制作用最小.最后根据实证结果得出目前我国宏观税负偏高,提出降低宏观税负和优化财政支出结构的政策建议.

From the theoretical analysis to the optimal macro tax burden in the framework of endogenous economic growth, this paper discussed the importance of study the problem of optimal macro tax burden for sustained economic growth.According to the 1994—2012 data of our country from the provinces, cities, autonomous regions, we analyzed the relationship between macro tax burden, fiscal expenditure and total factor productivity using the panel threshold model. The result is that the control interval for sustained economic growth of China’s optimal macro tax burden is 14.89%—19.37%. In the optimum range of macro tax burden, Inhibitory effect of macro tax burden on the total factor productivity is minimum.Finally, according to the empirical analysis results,at present our tax burden is too high, put forward policy recommendations to reduce the tax burden and optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure.