民生支出、财政结构与经济发展——一项基于跨国数据的实证研究

Livelihoods Expenditure, Fiscal Structure and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Panel data of 98 Countries

财政支出的结构一直是公共经济学的重要研究问题.然而,已有的文献大多关注生产性支出对于经济增长的影响,对于民生支出与经济发展的关系却缺乏足够的研究.基于2006年至2016年共计98个国家的面板数据,民生支出占财政支出的比例与经济发展存在显著的“U”形关系.当一国的人均国内生产者总值低于临界点时,越低的发展水平使得民生支出占财政支出的比例反而会越高.而当超越临界点后,经济发展水平与民生支出存在显著的正相关关系.我们的发现对于政府制定合理的民生支出具有一定价值.

The structure of fiscal expenditure has always been an important topic in public economics. However, most of the existing literature focuses on the impact of productive expenditure on economic growth and but little attention has been put on the empirical research on the relationship between minsheng expenditure and economic development. Based on a panel data of 98 countries from 2006 to 2016, this paper attempts to explore the intrinsic relationship between minsheng expenditure, public finance structure, and economic development. A significant"U"-type relationship is identified in our paper between the proportion of minsheng expenditure to fiscal expenditure and economic development. In other words, when a country’s GDP per capita is below the threshold, lower level of development makes the ratio of minsheng expenditure reach higer. When the per capita GDP of a country exceeds the threshold, the higher the level of economic development is often accompanied by higher levels of minsheng expenditure. Our findings provide valuable empirical evidence for governments public-policy makings of minsheng expenditure.