我国大气污染与居民肺癌发病与死亡的灰色关联度分析——基于我国肿瘤登记地区的数据

Grey Relational Analysis on Association Between Air Pollution and Lung Cancer in China: Based on Data of China Cancer Registries

基于2004—2012年中国肿瘤登记地区的数据,采用灰色关联分析方法,计算了大气污染物与肺癌发病及死亡率的关联度,并对大气污染物致肺癌死亡的潜伏期作了定量分析.研究结果表明:(1)二氧化硫是我国男性肺癌发病和死亡最主要影响因素;(2)烟(粉)尘是我国女性肺癌发病的最主要影响因素,但二氧化硫是我国女性肺癌死亡的最主要影响因素;(3)二氧化硫对男性肺癌死亡及发病的影响都要比女性大,氮氧化物和烟(粉)尘对女性肺癌发病的影响都要比男性大,但氮氧化物和烟(粉)尘对男性肺癌死亡的影响都要比女性大;(4)二氧化硫、氮氧化物及烟(粉)尘致男性肺癌的潜伏期分别为5年、3年、5年,致女性肺癌的潜伏期分别为5年、4年、5年.

Based on data of China Cancer Registries during 2004—2012 , the grey correlation analysis method was applied to calculate correlation degree between the morbidity, mortality of lung cancer and air pollution. And the latent period of lung cancer induced by air pollution was quantitatively analyzed. The results show:①the most seri-ous pollution factor affecting male lung cancer incidence and mortality was SO2;②the most serious pollution factor affecting female lung cancer incidence was smoke dust, but the most serious pollution factor affecting female lung cancer mortality was SO2;③grey relational analysis of SO2 and incidence, mortality of male lung cancer was larger than female, and grey relational analysis of NOx ,smoke dust and incidence of female lung cancer were larger than male, but grey relational analysis of NOx , smoke dust and mortality of male lung cancer were larger than female;④the male lung cancer latent periods of SO2 ,NOx and smoke dust were 5 years, 3 years and 5 years respectively, and the female lung cancer latent periods were 5 years, 4 years and 5 years respectively.