上海地区“股经背离”现象实证分析

The empirical analysis of abnormal relation between stock market and economic growth in Shanghai

采用上证沪企指数来表示股市运行情况,采用上海市消费品零售总额、进出口总量、居民信心指数、通货膨胀指数、发电量、固定资产投资额,这六个变量来表示上海市宏观经济运行情况,运用协整方法与理论进行建模分析。研究发现,上海地区存在着明显的"股经背离"现象。指数运行与宏观经济反向关系显著,上证沪企指数无法作为上海地区经济的"晴雨表"。

The paper uses the stock index of Shanghai enterprises to symbolize the stock market and uses six variables to symbolize economic growth in Shanghai. These variables are total retail volume, import and export volume,cci, cpi, electricenergy production and fixed investments. Co-integration theory is used in the model. The results show that there is an obvious negative correlation between stock market and economic growth in Shanghai. There indeed exists a paradox between stock market and economic growth.