我国第三产业发展对城乡收入差距影响的实证分析

Empirical Study of the Impact of Chinese Tertiary Industry Development on the Urben-rural Income Gap

基于1978-2015的相关数据,把数据以2008为界分成两个部分,利用VECM模型分析我国第三产业的发展对城乡收入差距的影响。研究表明,我国第三产业的发展与城乡收入差距存在一种长期均衡关系,并且我国第三产业的发展是城乡收入差距的格兰杰原因,2008年以前我国第三产业的发展扩大了城乡收入差距,2008以后反而开始缩小城乡收入差距,究其原因主要是教育的大力发展和城乡二元结构的淡化。城乡收入差距这种先扩大再缩小变化过程符合库兹涅茨的倒U型理论,也验证了我国推行的"大力发展第三产业,增加第三产业就业人数,扩大中产阶级比重,减少贫富差距"政策的有效性。

Based on the relevant data of 1978-2015, this paper divided the data into two parts taking 2008 as the boundary, using VECM model to analyze the influence of the development of tertiary industry on the income gap between urban and rural areas in China. Research shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the development of tertiary industry of our country and the income gap between urban and rural area in China.The development of tertiary industry of our country is the Granger cause of the urban-rural income gap. Before 2008 the development of tertiary industry of our country expanded the income gap between urban and rural areas,but after 2008 it began to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, the reasons of the above phenomenon are mainly the rapid development of education and the desalination of the urban-rural dual structure.The process of which income gap between urban and rural areas enlarged firstly and then narrowed accorded with the Kuznets inverted U-type theory and also verified the China's implementing policy of "vigorously developing tertiary industry,increasing the number of employment in tertiary industry,expanding the proportion of middle class,reducing the gap between the rich and the poor" is effective.