The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els fai...The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM),and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China,but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE).The simula-tions produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area,although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general.One typical regional phe-nomenon,a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer,was completely missed by most models.The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated,and the ob-served geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models.Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Ex-treme Values) distributions.The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions,but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions.These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models.Nonetheless,models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.展开更多
Costa Rica地震学项目（CRISP）是为了了解板块消减带上大地震发生和岩层破裂过程而设立的。CRISP选择的科学钻探井位处在板块会聚边缘的侵蚀末端附近,这里沿走向起伏的消减板块,具有低沉积物供给、快速的会聚速率、地震多发、消减侵蚀...Costa Rica地震学项目（CRISP）是为了了解板块消减带上大地震发生和岩层破裂过程而设立的。CRISP选择的科学钻探井位处在板块会聚边缘的侵蚀末端附近,这里沿走向起伏的消减板块,具有低沉积物供给、快速的会聚速率、地震多发、消减侵蚀显著的特征,对于认识地震成因和传播提供了极好的机会,展开更多
A brand new expert system for earthquake prediction, called ESEP3.0, was successfully developed recently, in which the fuzzy technology and neural network conception were incorporated and the steering inference mechan...A brand new expert system for earthquake prediction, called ESEP3.0, was successfully developed recently, in which the fuzzy technology and neural network conception were incorporated and the steering inference mechanism was introduced. In addition to the functions of symbol inference and explanation of the first generation of the expert system and the knowledge learning of the second generation, ESEP3.0 has stronger human-machine interaction function. It consists of knowledge edition, machine learning, steering fuzzy inference engine and synchronous explanation subsystems. In this paper, the components and the general description of the system are introduced.展开更多
2008年2月26日，加利福尼亚大学代表美国10所大学加入SCOAP3联盟，这些大学是：加州大学伯克利分校（UC Berkeley）、加州大学戴维斯分校（UC Davis）、加州大学尔湾分校（UC Irvine）、加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLosAngeles）、加州大学...2008年2月26日，加利福尼亚大学代表美国10所大学加入SCOAP3联盟，这些大学是：加州大学伯克利分校（UC Berkeley）、加州大学戴维斯分校（UC Davis）、加州大学尔湾分校（UC Irvine）、加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLosAngeles）、加州大学美嘉德分校（UC Merced）、加州大学河滨分校（UC Riverside）、加州大学圣地亚哥分校（UC San Diego）、加州大学旧金山分校（UC San Francisco）、加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校（UC Santa Barbara）、加州大学圣克鲁兹分校（UC Santa Cruz）。这些学校也是首批加入SCOAP3的美国机构。展开更多
新生代印度—欧亚板块持续碰撞导致了青藏高原的隆升及陆内大型边界断裂的形成(Yin and Harrison,2000).阿尔金断裂系是地球上规模最大的走滑断裂系统之一(Molnar and Dayem,2010),长1600 km,由NEE走向的阿尔金左旋断裂和北侧的北阿尔...新生代印度—欧亚板块持续碰撞导致了青藏高原的隆升及陆内大型边界断裂的形成(Yin and Harrison,2000).阿尔金断裂系是地球上规模最大的走滑断裂系统之一(Molnar and Dayem,2010),长1600 km,由NEE走向的阿尔金左旋断裂和北侧的北阿尔金断裂以及两断裂之间夹持的菱形阿尔金山脉组成(Cowgill et al.,2003).作为青藏高原北缘主控边界,阿尔金断裂系统在印度—欧亚板块碰撞过程中对高原地壳变形起到了重要的调节作用.一种观点认为阿尔金断裂表现为左旋走滑运动,而北阿尔金断裂表现为逆性质为主,左旋走滑量有限,小于30 km(Yue and Liou,1999;Yue et al.,2004).另一种观点认为,阿尔金断裂与北阿尔金断裂均为左旋走滑断裂,且北阿尔金断裂的左旋位移量超过120 km(Cowgill et al.,2000,2003;Yin et al.,2002).近年更有研究认为北阿尔金断裂在中新世中期由左旋走滑转变为逆冲断裂(Gao et al.,2022).展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401/2006CB400503the Chinese Meteorological Administration ProgramGYHY200706001
文摘The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were evaluated,with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century.Most mod-els failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM),and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China,but provided reasonable results in Southwest (SW) and Northeast China (NE).The simula-tions produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai (YH) Basin area,although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general.One typical regional phe-nomenon,a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer,was completely missed by most models.The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated,and the ob-served geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models.Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV (Generalized Ex-treme Values) distributions.The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions,but reasonable values were calculated for the North China (NC) and NE regions.These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models.Nonetheless,models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.
文摘A brand new expert system for earthquake prediction, called ESEP3.0, was successfully developed recently, in which the fuzzy technology and neural network conception were incorporated and the steering inference mechanism was introduced. In addition to the functions of symbol inference and explanation of the first generation of the expert system and the knowledge learning of the second generation, ESEP3.0 has stronger human-machine interaction function. It consists of knowledge edition, machine learning, steering fuzzy inference engine and synchronous explanation subsystems. In this paper, the components and the general description of the system are introduced.
文摘2008年2月26日，加利福尼亚大学代表美国10所大学加入SCOAP3联盟，这些大学是：加州大学伯克利分校（UC Berkeley）、加州大学戴维斯分校（UC Davis）、加州大学尔湾分校（UC Irvine）、加州大学洛杉矶分校（UCLosAngeles）、加州大学美嘉德分校（UC Merced）、加州大学河滨分校（UC Riverside）、加州大学圣地亚哥分校（UC San Diego）、加州大学旧金山分校（UC San Francisco）、加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校（UC Santa Barbara）、加州大学圣克鲁兹分校（UC Santa Cruz）。这些学校也是首批加入SCOAP3的美国机构。
文摘新生代印度—欧亚板块持续碰撞导致了青藏高原的隆升及陆内大型边界断裂的形成(Yin and Harrison,2000).阿尔金断裂系是地球上规模最大的走滑断裂系统之一(Molnar and Dayem,2010),长1600 km,由NEE走向的阿尔金左旋断裂和北侧的北阿尔金断裂以及两断裂之间夹持的菱形阿尔金山脉组成(Cowgill et al.,2003).作为青藏高原北缘主控边界,阿尔金断裂系统在印度—欧亚板块碰撞过程中对高原地壳变形起到了重要的调节作用.一种观点认为阿尔金断裂表现为左旋走滑运动,而北阿尔金断裂表现为逆性质为主,左旋走滑量有限,小于30 km(Yue and Liou,1999;Yue et al.,2004).另一种观点认为,阿尔金断裂与北阿尔金断裂均为左旋走滑断裂,且北阿尔金断裂的左旋位移量超过120 km(Cowgill et al.,2000,2003;Yin et al.,2002).近年更有研究认为北阿尔金断裂在中新世中期由左旋走滑转变为逆冲断裂(Gao et al.,2022).
