During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the s...During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.展开更多
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in c...Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models.Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations.In this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse.Through a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s variability.The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC.The results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly.However,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.展开更多
Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preced...Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.展开更多
Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum ...Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum was 4.175 mill.km^(2), 0.794 mill.km^(2) less than the minimum in 2023. However, the ice extent had decreased by 0.432 mill.km^(2) compared with 2022. Nevertheless, the summer melting in 2023 was remarkably less than expected when considering the strong heat waves in the atmosphere and ocean, with record temperatures set around the world. In general, there is a high correlation between the long-term decrease in sea-ice extent and the increasing CO_(2) in the atmosphere, where the increase of CO_(2) in recent decades explains about 80% of the decrease in sea ice in September, while the remainder is caused by natural variability.展开更多
A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study em...A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.展开更多
The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)....The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.展开更多
El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation an...El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42088101]。
文摘During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis results.To elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget analysis.The findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern Pacific.This increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective instability.Such a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection anomalies.The observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFF0805202]the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China [grant number 42175045]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDB42000000]。
文摘Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models.Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations.In this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse.Through a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s variability.The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC.The results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly.However,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China [grant numbers 41991281 and 42005028]。
文摘Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.
文摘Arctic sea-ice extent reaches its minimum each year in September. On 11 September 2023 the minimum was 4.969 million square kilometers(mill.km^(2)). This was not a record low, which occurred in 2012, when the minimum was 4.175 mill.km^(2), 0.794 mill.km^(2) less than the minimum in 2023. However, the ice extent had decreased by 0.432 mill.km^(2) compared with 2022. Nevertheless, the summer melting in 2023 was remarkably less than expected when considering the strong heat waves in the atmosphere and ocean, with record temperatures set around the world. In general, there is a high correlation between the long-term decrease in sea-ice extent and the increasing CO_(2) in the atmosphere, where the increase of CO_(2) in recent decades explains about 80% of the decrease in sea ice in September, while the remainder is caused by natural variability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42030605]the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2020YFA0608004]。
文摘A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers U2242205 and 41830969]the S&T Development Fund of CAMS [grant number 2023KJ036]the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS [grant number 2023Z018]。
文摘The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.
基金jointly supported by projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 42141017 and 41975112]。
文摘El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air interaction.Both the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further investigation.To investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 models.The results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the future.The higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in variability.Carbon flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through temperature.This occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.