文章利用中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据资料,以及NCEP/NCAR大气再分析数据,分析了盛季(7~9月份)、后季(10~11月份)西北太平洋(WNP)TC累积气旋能量(ACE)与ENSO事件相关性的年代际变化。发现WNP TC盛季ACE与ENSO的相关性在198...文章利用中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据资料,以及NCEP/NCAR大气再分析数据,分析了盛季(7~9月份)、后季(10~11月份)西北太平洋(WNP)TC累积气旋能量(ACE)与ENSO事件相关性的年代际变化。发现WNP TC盛季ACE与ENSO的相关性在1980年发生了年代际的突变,二者相关性由不显著变为显著的正相关。TC后季ACE与ENSO的相关性在1990年前后发生了年代际的突变,相关性由不相关变为显著的正相关。盛季、后季二者相关性年代际转变发生的事件不同,影响机制也不同。盛季ACE与ENSO相关性发生转变的主要原因是连续型ENSO在1980年之前发生频次较高,减弱了ENSO对ACE的影响。后季ACE与ENSO相关性发生转变的原因主要是1990年之前,El Niño多为东太平洋型,在WNP激发的环流异常为偶极子型分布,不能影响ACE的总量,1990年之后,El Niño发生时异常对流的位置偏西,WNP大部分区域被气旋式异常环流控制,有利于TC的生成和加强,因此TC ACE与ENSO有较好的相关性。This paper utilizes the best track data of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, along with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric data, to analyze the decadal shift in the relationship between the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Northwest Pacific (WNP) during the peak (July-September) and late (October-November) seasons and ENSO events. It was found that the correlation between WNP TC ACE during the peak season and ENSO underwent a decadal shift in 1980, changing from non-significant to a significant positive correlation. The correlation between late-season TC ACE and ENSO also experienced a decadal shift around 1990, changing from no correlation to a significant positive correlation. The decadal shifts in correlation during the peak and late seasons occurred at different times and were driven by different mechanisms. The shift in the correlation between peak season TC ACE and ENSO is primarily due to the high frequency of continuous-type ENSO events before 1980, which weakened the influence of ENSO on ACE. The reason for the shift in the correlation between late-season TC ACE and ENSO is mainly because before 1990, El Niño was predominantly of the Eastern Pacific type, and the circulation anomalies it triggered in the WNP were of a dipole distribution, which did not affect the total ACE. After 1990, the position of anomalous convection during El Niño events shifted westward, and most of the WNP was controlled by cyclonic anomaly circulation, which was conducive to the generation and strengthening of TCs, hence the better correlation between TC ACE and ENSO.展开更多
本文利用NOAA重建的海表面温度资料、JTWC的台风数据集,以及NCEP/NCAR发布的再分析资料,探讨了热带中太平洋海温年代际变化对西太平洋台风活动的影响。研究结果表明:1) 热带中太平洋的海温相较于1950~1979年的平均状况,在20世纪80年代...本文利用NOAA重建的海表面温度资料、JTWC的台风数据集,以及NCEP/NCAR发布的再分析资料,探讨了热带中太平洋海温年代际变化对西太平洋台风活动的影响。研究结果表明:1) 热带中太平洋的海温相较于1950~1979年的平均状况,在20世纪80年代中期经历了一次显著的年代际突变,突变后海温增暖;2) 在此突变后,西太平洋的台风及强台风生成频率有所增加,但强度变化并不显著;此外,台风生成区域在地理上呈现出向东向南的扩展趋势,而登陆区域则向西向北移动;3) 热带中太平洋海温的年代际变化通过调控一系列与台风生成和发展密切相关的大气环流、辐射通量等气象要素,对西太平洋台风活动的增强起到了积极的推动作用。这些研究为理解台风活动的动态变化提供了新的视角,并为未来的气候预测和台风预警提供了科学依据。This paper explores the influence of the interdecadal change of SST in the tropical central Pacific on the typhoon activity in the western Pacific Ocean using the reconstructed SST data from NOAA, the typhoon dataset from JTWC, and the reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR. The results show that: 1) the SST in the tropical central Pacific experienced a significant interdecadal abrupt change in the mid~1980s compared with the average condition from 1950 to 1979, and the SST warmed up after the abrupt change. 2) After this abrupt change, the frequency of typhoons and strong typhoons generated in the western Pacific Ocean increased, but the change in intensity was not significant;moreover, the typhoon generating region geographically showed an expansion trend from east to south, while the landfalling region moved from west to north. 3) Interdecadal variations of SST in the tropical central Pacific Ocean play a positive role in the enhancement of typhoon activities in the western Pacific Ocean by regulating a series of meteorological elements, such as atmospheric circulation and radiation fluxes, that are closely related to typhoon generation and development. These studies provide new perspectives for understanding the dynamics of typhoon activity and provide a scientific basis for future climate prediction and typhoon warning.展开更多
文摘文章利用中国气象局发布的热带气旋(TC)最佳路径数据资料,以及NCEP/NCAR大气再分析数据,分析了盛季(7~9月份)、后季(10~11月份)西北太平洋(WNP)TC累积气旋能量(ACE)与ENSO事件相关性的年代际变化。发现WNP TC盛季ACE与ENSO的相关性在1980年发生了年代际的突变,二者相关性由不显著变为显著的正相关。TC后季ACE与ENSO的相关性在1990年前后发生了年代际的突变,相关性由不相关变为显著的正相关。盛季、后季二者相关性年代际转变发生的事件不同,影响机制也不同。盛季ACE与ENSO相关性发生转变的主要原因是连续型ENSO在1980年之前发生频次较高,减弱了ENSO对ACE的影响。后季ACE与ENSO相关性发生转变的原因主要是1990年之前,El Niño多为东太平洋型,在WNP激发的环流异常为偶极子型分布,不能影响ACE的总量,1990年之后,El Niño发生时异常对流的位置偏西,WNP大部分区域被气旋式异常环流控制,有利于TC的生成和加强,因此TC ACE与ENSO有较好的相关性。This paper utilizes the best track data of tropical cyclones from the China Meteorological Administration, along with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric data, to analyze the decadal shift in the relationship between the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Northwest Pacific (WNP) during the peak (July-September) and late (October-November) seasons and ENSO events. It was found that the correlation between WNP TC ACE during the peak season and ENSO underwent a decadal shift in 1980, changing from non-significant to a significant positive correlation. The correlation between late-season TC ACE and ENSO also experienced a decadal shift around 1990, changing from no correlation to a significant positive correlation. The decadal shifts in correlation during the peak and late seasons occurred at different times and were driven by different mechanisms. The shift in the correlation between peak season TC ACE and ENSO is primarily due to the high frequency of continuous-type ENSO events before 1980, which weakened the influence of ENSO on ACE. The reason for the shift in the correlation between late-season TC ACE and ENSO is mainly because before 1990, El Niño was predominantly of the Eastern Pacific type, and the circulation anomalies it triggered in the WNP were of a dipole distribution, which did not affect the total ACE. After 1990, the position of anomalous convection during El Niño events shifted westward, and most of the WNP was controlled by cyclonic anomaly circulation, which was conducive to the generation and strengthening of TCs, hence the better correlation between TC ACE and ENSO.
文摘本文利用NOAA重建的海表面温度资料、JTWC的台风数据集,以及NCEP/NCAR发布的再分析资料,探讨了热带中太平洋海温年代际变化对西太平洋台风活动的影响。研究结果表明:1) 热带中太平洋的海温相较于1950~1979年的平均状况,在20世纪80年代中期经历了一次显著的年代际突变,突变后海温增暖;2) 在此突变后,西太平洋的台风及强台风生成频率有所增加,但强度变化并不显著;此外,台风生成区域在地理上呈现出向东向南的扩展趋势,而登陆区域则向西向北移动;3) 热带中太平洋海温的年代际变化通过调控一系列与台风生成和发展密切相关的大气环流、辐射通量等气象要素,对西太平洋台风活动的增强起到了积极的推动作用。这些研究为理解台风活动的动态变化提供了新的视角,并为未来的气候预测和台风预警提供了科学依据。This paper explores the influence of the interdecadal change of SST in the tropical central Pacific on the typhoon activity in the western Pacific Ocean using the reconstructed SST data from NOAA, the typhoon dataset from JTWC, and the reanalysis data released by NCEP/NCAR. The results show that: 1) the SST in the tropical central Pacific experienced a significant interdecadal abrupt change in the mid~1980s compared with the average condition from 1950 to 1979, and the SST warmed up after the abrupt change. 2) After this abrupt change, the frequency of typhoons and strong typhoons generated in the western Pacific Ocean increased, but the change in intensity was not significant;moreover, the typhoon generating region geographically showed an expansion trend from east to south, while the landfalling region moved from west to north. 3) Interdecadal variations of SST in the tropical central Pacific Ocean play a positive role in the enhancement of typhoon activities in the western Pacific Ocean by regulating a series of meteorological elements, such as atmospheric circulation and radiation fluxes, that are closely related to typhoon generation and development. These studies provide new perspectives for understanding the dynamics of typhoon activity and provide a scientific basis for future climate prediction and typhoon warning.
