China remains one of the most attractive destinations for foreign direct investment in the world.oOn the surface it looks like life is getting more difficult for foreign enterprises in China.Although China remains one...China remains one of the most attractive destinations for foreign direct investment in the world.oOn the surface it looks like life is getting more difficult for foreign enterprises in China.Although China remains one f the fastest growing economies in the world,double digit growth has been re-placed by 7.7 percent growth in 2013.展开更多
Financial reform has been a core dimension of the initial global policy response to the financial turmoil of 2007-08. At the first G-20 summit of heads of state and government in November
Currency is an iconic expression of a country's economic dominance. Even if the economic benefits of currency dominance are questionable,countries and their governments do seem to prize that status.
In the context of a transatlantic comparison,the first thing to be mentioned is the difference between the time sequence of financial reforms in the European Union and its equivalent in the United States.The financial...In the context of a transatlantic comparison,the first thing to be mentioned is the difference between the time sequence of financial reforms in the European Union and its equivalent in the United States.The financial crisis started simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic, with the initial disruption of some financial market segments in August 2007 and the major panic episode of September through October 2008.But they are not at the same stage of policy reaction and especially regulatory reform now.At least four reasons can be identified for this difference. The first major reason is the fact that beyond the first weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers,financial crisis management has been,on the whole,much simpler,展开更多
Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.The economic and fin...Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.The economic and financial problems in the euro area are clearly展开更多
China’s need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has increasingly turned Chinese investors towards Latin America.This demand has propelled China into third place among Latin American...China’s need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has increasingly turned Chinese investors towards Latin America.This demand has propelled China into third place among Latin American investors,directing over $15 billion (about展开更多
G iven the current global environment, China＇s growth ＂seems likely to slow significantly if it continues to relyon increasing exports to fuel its growth. External demand is muted and is likely to remain so for some...G iven the current global environment, China＇s growth ＂seems likely to slow significantly if it continues to relyon increasing exports to fuel its growth. External demand is muted and is likely to remain so for some time, given the slow pace of economic recovery from the global financial and economic crisis in the developed countries that have long been the major markets for China＇s exports.展开更多
Tax and budget reforms are needed to reduce the financial burden of sub-national governments,in particular heavily leveraged municipal and county governments.Little has changed three years after policymakers and China...Tax and budget reforms are needed to reduce the financial burden of sub-national governments,in particular heavily leveraged municipal and county governments.Little has changed three years after policymakers and China watch-展开更多
Over the past several years,few topics in international finance have captured the imagination of academics,pundits,and policymakers as has the prospect of a global renminbi(RMB)that could challenge the role of the dol...Over the past several years,few topics in international finance have captured the imagination of academics,pundits,and policymakers as has the prospect of a global renminbi(RMB)that could challenge the role of the dollar or the euro.Chinese policymakers for their part,have embraced the more limited goal of increasing international usage of the RMB,while not publicly advocating full reserve currency status and the free convertibility such status would require.YetPeterson Institute for International Economics)展开更多
The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations is on life support and there are intermittent and half-hearted efforts to resuscitate it. It would seem that the postwar framework for multilatera...The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations is on life support and there are intermittent and half-hearted efforts to resuscitate it. It would seem that the postwar framework for multilateral trade cooperation is under existential threat. It is, however, premature to draw that conclusion. Beginning in the 1990s, when it was becoming clear that China represented a huge market access opportunity, the United States and European Union launched efforts to reduce China’s trade barriers. This initiative was assisted by the fact that the Chinese lead-展开更多
Chinese economic growth for the past decade has been categorized by controls on resource and capital price increases,excessive levels of investment,and overcapacity in certain industrial sectors.Policymakers
Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA’s opinions on issuers’ relative prob...Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA’s opinions on issuers’ relative probability of default. The market for credit ratings is currently dominated in most western countries by three players:展开更多
This paper considers whether there is a ＂Thucydides trap ＂＇ in the world economy, referring to the inherent conflict between incumbent and challenger It assesses the impact of President Trump ~ alienation of tradit...This paper considers whether there is a ＂Thucydides trap ＂＇ in the world economy, referring to the inherent conflict between incumbent and challenger It assesses the impact of President Trump ~ alienation of traditional US allies, which threatens to splinter the ＂hegemonic coalition ＇＂ and even push China and Europe together, and his convergence toward some Chinese norms on trade and even polities. It outlines three possible systemic scenarios： a ＂GO＂ in which the US is no longer willing to lead but China is not yet able or willing, and whether such a （likely） regime will be stable or unstable; a new ＂G1, ＂＇ sooner or later, led by China; and a cooperative ＂G2 ＂＂ in which the US and China agree to share leadership. It traces the evolution of actual leadership initiatives of the two countries in recent years. It compares US and Chinese attitudes on key systemic issues and concludes with an appraisal of ＂＇an international economic order with Chinese characteristics, ＂＂ a worm in which the state plays a greater role relative to market economics, the rule of law defers increasingly to voluntary arrangements, and politics tilt toward central ~overnment control more than democracy.展开更多
Since peaking in 2016,Chinese outward investment,primarily to the US but also to the European Union(EU),has declined dramatically,especially in response to changes in China s domestic rules for capital outflow.Concern...Since peaking in 2016,Chinese outward investment,primarily to the US but also to the European Union(EU),has declined dramatically,especially in response to changes in China s domestic rules for capital outflow.Concern over growing Chinese influence in other economies,the ascendant role of a Communist Party-led government in Beijing and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-tech sector have put Chinese outward investment under international scrutiny.This paper analyzes the recent trends in Chinese investment in the US and the EU and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investment.It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm,Huawei.Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China,the US has cracked down far harder on the company than the EU.展开更多
China has started to deploy its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in the European Union(EU),and the EU in turn has regional and global interests that intersect with the BRI's scope.Subject to future adjustments of Chin...China has started to deploy its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in the European Union(EU),and the EU in turn has regional and global interests that intersect with the BRI's scope.Subject to future adjustments of China s BRI strategy,the initiative s potential contribution to the EU requirements for infrastructure development could be significant,even though its modalities in the EU are inevitably different from those in countries that are poorer or have more difficult financial market access.The EU's attitude to the BRI,however,has not yet fully coalesced.Despite superficial similarities in public discourses,the EU has a profoundly distinct perspective from that of the US on the BRI,and more generally on the rise of China and its growing global influence.For the EU,the BRI generates challenges but also potential benefits.The EU should improve its ability to welcome sensible BRI projects,including through the adoption of greater reform of screening frameworks for foreign direct investment.More generally,the EU should enhance its ability to define policies independent of the US on China and the challenges resulting from China’s rise.China should also make further efforts to foster a constructive relationship with the EU.展开更多
Donald Trump has sought to change US trading relationships by raising protection at home and taxing the offshore activities of US companies abroad. These measures, which both use and violate trade rules, have provoked...Donald Trump has sought to change US trading relationships by raising protection at home and taxing the offshore activities of US companies abroad. These measures, which both use and violate trade rules, have provoked retaliation from other countries. Such friction has restricted and distorted trade and investment, undermined the rules-based trading system and perhaps permanently damaged global value chains that depend on stable rules for market access. Trump has justified some of his measures as a response to China＇s alleged unfair practices and indeed, China has adopted industrial and technology policies that are formally neutral between domestic and foreign firms but in practice have led foreign firms to complain about discriminatory practices that favor Chinese firms. The US friction with China is unfortunate because instead of trying to bully China into submission in a tariff war, the US could have dealt with many of its concerns more effectively by cooperating with other countries and taking actions that are consistent with maintaining the rules-based system. While the US has undermined its leadership role, the overall damage to the trading system could still be limited if other countries, especially China, take actions that sustain and strengthen it.展开更多
For more than three decades the goal of becoming "the factory of the world" has been at the core of China s development strategy.This strategy,in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low ra...For more than three decades the goal of becoming "the factory of the world" has been at the core of China s development strategy.This strategy,in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption,has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world.But as its wages have risen,China's competitiveness in the most labor-intensive manufacturing industries has eroded.Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports,but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value-added production domestically.Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens'income has grown.Like Americans,Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods.All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China s production,reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing.This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China s long-term goal of achieving more inclusive growth.It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong.In fact,such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy,in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.展开更多
文摘China remains one of the most attractive destinations for foreign direct investment in the world.oOn the surface it looks like life is getting more difficult for foreign enterprises in China.Although China remains one f the fastest growing economies in the world,double digit growth has been re-placed by 7.7 percent growth in 2013.
文摘Financial reform has been a core dimension of the initial global policy response to the financial turmoil of 2007-08. At the first G-20 summit of heads of state and government in November
文摘Currency is an iconic expression of a country's economic dominance. Even if the economic benefits of currency dominance are questionable,countries and their governments do seem to prize that status.
文摘In the context of a transatlantic comparison,the first thing to be mentioned is the difference between the time sequence of financial reforms in the European Union and its equivalent in the United States.The financial crisis started simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic, with the initial disruption of some financial market segments in August 2007 and the major panic episode of September through October 2008.But they are not at the same stage of policy reaction and especially regulatory reform now.At least four reasons can be identified for this difference. The first major reason is the fact that beyond the first weeks following the collapse of Lehman Brothers,financial crisis management has been,on the whole,much simpler,
文摘Doom and gloom about the euro abounds. An increasing number of commentators and economists, including here at the Peterson Institute, have begun to question whether the common currency can survive.The economic and financial problems in the euro area are clearly
文摘China’s need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has increasingly turned Chinese investors towards Latin America.This demand has propelled China into third place among Latin American investors,directing over $15 billion (about
文摘G iven the current global environment, China＇s growth ＂seems likely to slow significantly if it continues to relyon increasing exports to fuel its growth. External demand is muted and is likely to remain so for some time, given the slow pace of economic recovery from the global financial and economic crisis in the developed countries that have long been the major markets for China＇s exports.
文摘Tax and budget reforms are needed to reduce the financial burden of sub-national governments,in particular heavily leveraged municipal and county governments.Little has changed three years after policymakers and China watch-
文摘Over the past several years,few topics in international finance have captured the imagination of academics,pundits,and policymakers as has the prospect of a global renminbi(RMB)that could challenge the role of the dollar or the euro.Chinese policymakers for their part,have embraced the more limited goal of increasing international usage of the RMB,while not publicly advocating full reserve currency status and the free convertibility such status would require.YetPeterson Institute for International Economics)
文摘The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations is on life support and there are intermittent and half-hearted efforts to resuscitate it. It would seem that the postwar framework for multilateral trade cooperation is under existential threat. It is, however, premature to draw that conclusion. Beginning in the 1990s, when it was becoming clear that China represented a huge market access opportunity, the United States and European Union launched efforts to reduce China’s trade barriers. This initiative was assisted by the fact that the Chinese lead-
文摘Chinese economic growth for the past decade has been categorized by controls on resource and capital price increases,excessive levels of investment,and overcapacity in certain industrial sectors.Policymakers
文摘Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA’s opinions on issuers’ relative probability of default. The market for credit ratings is currently dominated in most western countries by three players:
文摘This paper considers whether there is a ＂Thucydides trap ＂＇ in the world economy, referring to the inherent conflict between incumbent and challenger It assesses the impact of President Trump ~ alienation of traditional US allies, which threatens to splinter the ＂hegemonic coalition ＇＂ and even push China and Europe together, and his convergence toward some Chinese norms on trade and even polities. It outlines three possible systemic scenarios： a ＂GO＂ in which the US is no longer willing to lead but China is not yet able or willing, and whether such a （likely） regime will be stable or unstable; a new ＂G1, ＂＇ sooner or later, led by China; and a cooperative ＂G2 ＂＂ in which the US and China agree to share leadership. It traces the evolution of actual leadership initiatives of the two countries in recent years. It compares US and Chinese attitudes on key systemic issues and concludes with an appraisal of ＂＇an international economic order with Chinese characteristics, ＂＂ a worm in which the state plays a greater role relative to market economics, the rule of law defers increasingly to voluntary arrangements, and politics tilt toward central ~overnment control more than democracy.
文摘Since peaking in 2016,Chinese outward investment,primarily to the US but also to the European Union(EU),has declined dramatically,especially in response to changes in China s domestic rules for capital outflow.Concern over growing Chinese influence in other economies,the ascendant role of a Communist Party-led government in Beijing and the possible security implications of Chinese dominance in the high-tech sector have put Chinese outward investment under international scrutiny.This paper analyzes the recent trends in Chinese investment in the US and the EU and reviews recent political and regulatory changes both have adopted toward Chinese inward investment.It also explores the emerging transatlantic difference in the regulatory response to the Chinese information technology firm,Huawei.Concerned about national security and as part of the ongoing broader trade friction with China,the US has cracked down far harder on the company than the EU.
文摘China has started to deploy its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)in the European Union(EU),and the EU in turn has regional and global interests that intersect with the BRI's scope.Subject to future adjustments of China s BRI strategy,the initiative s potential contribution to the EU requirements for infrastructure development could be significant,even though its modalities in the EU are inevitably different from those in countries that are poorer or have more difficult financial market access.The EU's attitude to the BRI,however,has not yet fully coalesced.Despite superficial similarities in public discourses,the EU has a profoundly distinct perspective from that of the US on the BRI,and more generally on the rise of China and its growing global influence.For the EU,the BRI generates challenges but also potential benefits.The EU should improve its ability to welcome sensible BRI projects,including through the adoption of greater reform of screening frameworks for foreign direct investment.More generally,the EU should enhance its ability to define policies independent of the US on China and the challenges resulting from China’s rise.China should also make further efforts to foster a constructive relationship with the EU.
文摘Donald Trump has sought to change US trading relationships by raising protection at home and taxing the offshore activities of US companies abroad. These measures, which both use and violate trade rules, have provoked retaliation from other countries. Such friction has restricted and distorted trade and investment, undermined the rules-based trading system and perhaps permanently damaged global value chains that depend on stable rules for market access. Trump has justified some of his measures as a response to China＇s alleged unfair practices and indeed, China has adopted industrial and technology policies that are formally neutral between domestic and foreign firms but in practice have led foreign firms to complain about discriminatory practices that favor Chinese firms. The US friction with China is unfortunate because instead of trying to bully China into submission in a tariff war, the US could have dealt with many of its concerns more effectively by cooperating with other countries and taking actions that are consistent with maintaining the rules-based system. While the US has undermined its leadership role, the overall damage to the trading system could still be limited if other countries, especially China, take actions that sustain and strengthen it.
基金The author is grateful for support from the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growthresearch assistance from Galit Eisman.
文摘For more than three decades the goal of becoming "the factory of the world" has been at the core of China s development strategy.This strategy,in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption,has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world.But as its wages have risen,China's competitiveness in the most labor-intensive manufacturing industries has eroded.Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports,but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value-added production domestically.Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens'income has grown.Like Americans,Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods.All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China s production,reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing.This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China s long-term goal of achieving more inclusive growth.It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong.In fact,such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy,in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.
