利用双权重算法对观测增量(卫星观测亮度温度与用辐射传输模式模拟的背景场亮度温度之差)进行质量控制,模式背景场采用的是NCEP再分析资料,观测算子使用的是RTTOV(9.3v)(the fast radiative transfer for(A)TOVS model)。质量控制分两...利用双权重算法对观测增量(卫星观测亮度温度与用辐射传输模式模拟的背景场亮度温度之差)进行质量控制,模式背景场采用的是NCEP再分析资料,观测算子使用的是RTTOV(9.3v)(the fast radiative transfer for(A)TOVS model)。质量控制分两步进行:粗检验和离群值检验,目的是剔除受地表发射率或云影响的离群资料。结果表明:质量控制后观测增量标准差显著减小,偏差接近无偏正态分布,FY-3卫星微波温度探测器辐射率数据的质量得到很大的改善,为FY-3微波温度计观测亮温资料在数值预报资料同化系统中的应用奠定基础。展开更多
利用中尺度非静力WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化系统,对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程进行多普勒雷达径向速度资料的三维变分同化试验,重点考察雷达资料的不同稀疏化方式对同化结果以及对暴雨数值模...利用中尺度非静力WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化系统,对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程进行多普勒雷达径向速度资料的三维变分同化试验,重点考察雷达资料的不同稀疏化方式对同化结果以及对暴雨数值模拟的影响。结果表明:同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料使得模式初始风场包含了更丰富的中尺度特征信息,有效调整了初始场的环流结构,能够改善模式对暴雨过程的模拟效果;以不同的稀疏化处理方式同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料对分析场会产生不同的影响,进而影响模式的降水预报效果,本次试验中当极坐标网格径向分辨率取10 km的时候降水过程的预报效果最好。展开更多
The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produ...The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produced by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the WRF model with a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system and the WRF model with an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF) data assimilation system.In addition,the present study analyzes a Meiyu front heavy rainfall process that occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from July 4 to July 5,2003,through numerical simulation.The results show the following.(1) The assimilation of the radar radial velocity data can increase the perturbations in the low-altitude atmosphere over the heavy rainfall region,enhance the convective activities and reduce excessive simulated precipitation.(2) The 3DVAR assimilation method significantly adjusts the horizontal wind field.The assimilation of the reflectivity data improves the microphysical quantities and dynamic fields in the model.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can better adjust the wind fields and improve the intensity and location of the simulated radar echo bands.(3) The EnSRF assimilation method can assimilate more small-scale wind field information into the model.The assimilation of the reflectivity data alone can relatively accurately forecast the rainfall centers.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the location of the simulated radar echo bands.(4) The use of the 3DVAR and EnSRF assimilation methods to assimilate the radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the forecast of precipitation,rain-band areal coverage and the center location and intensity of precipitation.展开更多
In this article,the Multi-Fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(MF-DFA)method is adopted to study the temperature,i.e.,the maximum temperature(Tmax),mean temperature(Tavg)and minimum(Tmin)air temperature,multifractal...In this article,the Multi-Fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(MF-DFA)method is adopted to study the temperature,i.e.,the maximum temperature(Tmax),mean temperature(Tavg)and minimum(Tmin)air temperature,multifractal characteristics and their formation mechanism,in the typical temperature zones in the coastal regions in Guangdong,Jiangsu and Liaoning Provinces.Following are some terms and concepts used in the present study.Multifractality is defined as a term that characterizes the complexity and self-similarity of objects,and fractal characteristics depict the distribution of probability over the whole set caused by different local conditions or different levels in the process of evolution.Fractality strength denotes the fluctuation range of the data set,and long-range correlation(LRC)measures the stability of the climate system and the trend of climate change in the future.In this research,it is found that the internal stability and feedback mechanism of climate systems in different regions show regional differences.Furthermore,the research also proves that the Tavg,Tmaxand Tminof the above three provinces are highly multifractal.The temperature series multifractality of each province decreases in the order of temperature series multifractality of Liaoning>temperature series multifractality of Guangdong>temperature series multifractality of Jiangsu,and the corresponding long-range correlations follow the same order.It reveals that the most stable temperature series is that of Liaoning,followed by the temperature series of Guangdong,and the most unstable one is that of Jiangsu.Liaoning has the most stable climate system,and it will thus be less responsive to the future climate warming.The stability of the climate system in Jiangsu is the weakest,and its temperature fluctuation will continue to increase in the future,which will probably result in the meteorological disasters of high temperature and heat wave there.Guangdong possesses the strongest degree of multifractal strength,which indicates that its internal temperature series fluctuation is the largest among the three regions.The Tmaxmultifractal strength of Jiangsu is stronger than that of Liaoning,while the Tavgand Tminmultifractal strength of Jiangsu is weaker than that of Liaoning,showing that Jiangsu has a larger internal Tmaxfluctuation than Liaoning does,while it has a smaller fluctuation of Tavgand Tminthan Liaoning does.Guangdong and Liaoning both show the strongest Tminmultifractal strength,followed by Tavgmultifractal strength,and the weakest Tmax multifractal strength.However,Jiangsu has the strongest Tmax,followed by Tavg,and the weakest Tmin.The research findings show that these phenomena are closely related to solar radiation,monsoon strength,topography and some other factors.In addition,the multifractality of the temperature time series results from the negative power-law distribution and long-range correlation,in which the long-range correlation influence of temperature series itself plays the dominant role.With the backdrop of global climate change,this research can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of the spatial-temporal air temperature variation in the eastern coastal areas of China and help us understand its characteristics and causes,and thus the present study will be significant for the environmental protection of coastal areas.展开更多
文摘利用双权重算法对观测增量(卫星观测亮度温度与用辐射传输模式模拟的背景场亮度温度之差)进行质量控制,模式背景场采用的是NCEP再分析资料,观测算子使用的是RTTOV(9.3v)(the fast radiative transfer for(A)TOVS model)。质量控制分两步进行:粗检验和离群值检验,目的是剔除受地表发射率或云影响的离群资料。结果表明:质量控制后观测增量标准差显著减小,偏差接近无偏正态分布,FY-3卫星微波温度探测器辐射率数据的质量得到很大的改善,为FY-3微波温度计观测亮温资料在数值预报资料同化系统中的应用奠定基础。
文摘利用中尺度非静力WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式及其三维变分同化系统,对2007年7月淮河流域的一次强降雨过程进行多普勒雷达径向速度资料的三维变分同化试验,重点考察雷达资料的不同稀疏化方式对同化结果以及对暴雨数值模拟的影响。结果表明:同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料使得模式初始风场包含了更丰富的中尺度特征信息,有效调整了初始场的环流结构,能够改善模式对暴雨过程的模拟效果;以不同的稀疏化处理方式同化多普勒雷达径向速度资料对分析场会产生不同的影响,进而影响模式的降水预报效果,本次试验中当极坐标网格径向分辨率取10 km的时候降水过程的预报效果最好。
基金Beijige Fund of Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences(BJG201512)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20161074,BK20130990)+1 种基金Key Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(KZ201605)Young Meteorological Research of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(Q201611)
文摘The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produced by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the WRF model with a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system and the WRF model with an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF) data assimilation system.In addition,the present study analyzes a Meiyu front heavy rainfall process that occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from July 4 to July 5,2003,through numerical simulation.The results show the following.(1) The assimilation of the radar radial velocity data can increase the perturbations in the low-altitude atmosphere over the heavy rainfall region,enhance the convective activities and reduce excessive simulated precipitation.(2) The 3DVAR assimilation method significantly adjusts the horizontal wind field.The assimilation of the reflectivity data improves the microphysical quantities and dynamic fields in the model.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can better adjust the wind fields and improve the intensity and location of the simulated radar echo bands.(3) The EnSRF assimilation method can assimilate more small-scale wind field information into the model.The assimilation of the reflectivity data alone can relatively accurately forecast the rainfall centers.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the location of the simulated radar echo bands.(4) The use of the 3DVAR and EnSRF assimilation methods to assimilate the radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the forecast of precipitation,rain-band areal coverage and the center location and intensity of precipitation.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1506900,2018YFC1506904)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875027,41911530242)+1 种基金Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(SCSF201804,419QN330)Research Program of Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province(Z201603Z)。
文摘In this article,the Multi-Fractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(MF-DFA)method is adopted to study the temperature,i.e.,the maximum temperature(Tmax),mean temperature(Tavg)and minimum(Tmin)air temperature,multifractal characteristics and their formation mechanism,in the typical temperature zones in the coastal regions in Guangdong,Jiangsu and Liaoning Provinces.Following are some terms and concepts used in the present study.Multifractality is defined as a term that characterizes the complexity and self-similarity of objects,and fractal characteristics depict the distribution of probability over the whole set caused by different local conditions or different levels in the process of evolution.Fractality strength denotes the fluctuation range of the data set,and long-range correlation(LRC)measures the stability of the climate system and the trend of climate change in the future.In this research,it is found that the internal stability and feedback mechanism of climate systems in different regions show regional differences.Furthermore,the research also proves that the Tavg,Tmaxand Tminof the above three provinces are highly multifractal.The temperature series multifractality of each province decreases in the order of temperature series multifractality of Liaoning>temperature series multifractality of Guangdong>temperature series multifractality of Jiangsu,and the corresponding long-range correlations follow the same order.It reveals that the most stable temperature series is that of Liaoning,followed by the temperature series of Guangdong,and the most unstable one is that of Jiangsu.Liaoning has the most stable climate system,and it will thus be less responsive to the future climate warming.The stability of the climate system in Jiangsu is the weakest,and its temperature fluctuation will continue to increase in the future,which will probably result in the meteorological disasters of high temperature and heat wave there.Guangdong possesses the strongest degree of multifractal strength,which indicates that its internal temperature series fluctuation is the largest among the three regions.The Tmaxmultifractal strength of Jiangsu is stronger than that of Liaoning,while the Tavgand Tminmultifractal strength of Jiangsu is weaker than that of Liaoning,showing that Jiangsu has a larger internal Tmaxfluctuation than Liaoning does,while it has a smaller fluctuation of Tavgand Tminthan Liaoning does.Guangdong and Liaoning both show the strongest Tminmultifractal strength,followed by Tavgmultifractal strength,and the weakest Tmax multifractal strength.However,Jiangsu has the strongest Tmax,followed by Tavg,and the weakest Tmin.The research findings show that these phenomena are closely related to solar radiation,monsoon strength,topography and some other factors.In addition,the multifractality of the temperature time series results from the negative power-law distribution and long-range correlation,in which the long-range correlation influence of temperature series itself plays the dominant role.With the backdrop of global climate change,this research can provide a theoretical basis for the prediction of the spatial-temporal air temperature variation in the eastern coastal areas of China and help us understand its characteristics and causes,and thus the present study will be significant for the environmental protection of coastal areas.
