京津冀面临着PM2.5、CO2减排的双重挑战,研究该地区CO2与PM2.5的协同控制效应及其排放量与经济发展的耦合关系,对经济绿色可持续发展与环境改善具有重要指导意义。但现有协同减排效应及相关耦合研究在空间分辨率和行业精细化程度上尚难...京津冀面临着PM2.5、CO2减排的双重挑战,研究该地区CO2与PM2.5的协同控制效应及其排放量与经济发展的耦合关系,对经济绿色可持续发展与环境改善具有重要指导意义。但现有协同减排效应及相关耦合研究在空间分辨率和行业精细化程度上尚难以满足应用需求。文章采用高分辨率PM2.5、CO2和GDP分行业排放量(10 × 10 km)数据,利用协同控制效应坐标系法、耦合协调模型以及双变量自相关分析,评估该地区工业生产、运输、能源、农业和建筑五个行业CO2和PM2.5排放量的协同控制效应以及与GDP的耦合协调度,揭示京津冀地区减污降碳现状及其演变特征。结果显示:1) CO2和PM2.5协同控制效应呈现先上升–下降–上升的波动变化趋势,2010年时协同效应最优,PM2.5和CO2共同减排,2014年、2015年协同效应最差,PM2.5和CO2共同增排。2) 2000~2020年CO2排放与GDP增长的解耦状态多为弱解耦(20.5%)、隐性解耦(39.4%)和隐性耦合(38.5%),呈现弱解耦状态主要集中于北部地区,中部地区大部分呈现隐性解耦,隐性耦合多分布于冀南地区;2000~2020年PM2.5排放和GDP强解耦状态逐渐从弱负解耦转变为强解耦。2000年,14.8%的地区强解耦,75.3%弱负解耦,到2020年,31.5%地区弱负解耦,63.8%强解耦。3) 2010~2020年建筑业碳排放和经济的耦合协调指标小于0.4处于严重失调状态,对京津冀碳排放和经济的耦合协调影响显著。4) PM2.5和CO2排放热点由京津冀中部和南部地区逐步集中到中部地区,且高排放和高GDP区域逐步转变为低排放和高GDP区域,主要贡献行业为运输业,主要集中在京津冀中部和环渤海等地区。本研究以期能够为京津冀未来行业结构优化方向、京津冀差异化协同减排发展路径,为我国不同发展阶段的各地区实现GDP与PM2.5、CO2排放的解耦和协同减排目标提供理论依据和科学支撑。Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is facing the double challenge of PM2.5 and CO2 emission reduction, and the study of the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 in the region and the coupling relationship between their emissions and economic development is of great significance in guiding the green and sustainable development of the economy and environmental improvement. However, the existing synergistic emission reduction effect and related coupling studies are still difficult to meet the application requirements in terms of spatial resolution and industry refinement. In this paper, we use high-resolution PM2.5, CO2 and GDP emissions by industry (10 × 10 km) data, and utilize the synergistic control effect coordinate system method, the coupling coordination model, and bivariate autocorrelation analysis to assess the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 emissions from five industries in the region, namely, industrial production, transportation, energy, agriculture, and construction, and the degree of coordination of the coupling with the GDP, and to reveal The current situation of pollution and carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its evolution characteristics. The results show that: 1) CO2 and PM2.5 synergistic control effects show a fluctuating change trend of first rising-declining-rising, with the optimal synergistic effect in 2010, when PM2.5 and CO2 were jointly reduced, and the worst synergistic effect in 2014 and 2015, when PM2.5 and CO2 were jointly increased. 2) The decoupling state of CO2 emission and GDP growth from 2000 to 2020 is mostly weak decoupling (20.5%), implicit decoupling (39.4%) and implicit coupling (38.5%), presenting a weak decoupling state mainly concentrated in the northern region, most of the central region presenting an implicit decoupling, and an implicit coupling mostly distributed in the Ji’nan region;from 2000 to 2020 the PM2.5 emission and GDP strong decoupling state gradually changed from weak negative decoupling to strong decoupling. in 2000, 14.8% of the region was strongly decoupled, 75.3% weakly negatively decoupled, and by 2020, 31.5% of the region was weakly negatively decoupled, 63.8% strongly decoupled. 3) The coupling and coordination index of carbon emissions and economy of the construction industry from 2010 to 2020 is less than 0.4 is in a serious dysfunctional state, which has a significant impact on the coupling and coordination of carbon emissions and economy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. 4) The hotspots of PM2.5 and CO2 emissions are gradually concentrated from the central and southern regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to the central region, and the high-emission and high-GDP region is gradually transformed into a low-emission and high-GDP region, with the main contributing industry being the transportation industry, which is concentrated in the central part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Bohai Rim and other regions. This study aims to provide theoretical basis and scientific support for the optimization direction of the future industry structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the development path of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei differentiated synergistic emission reduction, and the realization of decoupling and synergistic emission reduction targets of GDP and PM2.5 and CO2 emissions in regions at different stages of development in China.展开更多
文摘京津冀面临着PM2.5、CO2减排的双重挑战,研究该地区CO2与PM2.5的协同控制效应及其排放量与经济发展的耦合关系,对经济绿色可持续发展与环境改善具有重要指导意义。但现有协同减排效应及相关耦合研究在空间分辨率和行业精细化程度上尚难以满足应用需求。文章采用高分辨率PM2.5、CO2和GDP分行业排放量(10 × 10 km)数据,利用协同控制效应坐标系法、耦合协调模型以及双变量自相关分析,评估该地区工业生产、运输、能源、农业和建筑五个行业CO2和PM2.5排放量的协同控制效应以及与GDP的耦合协调度,揭示京津冀地区减污降碳现状及其演变特征。结果显示:1) CO2和PM2.5协同控制效应呈现先上升–下降–上升的波动变化趋势,2010年时协同效应最优,PM2.5和CO2共同减排,2014年、2015年协同效应最差,PM2.5和CO2共同增排。2) 2000~2020年CO2排放与GDP增长的解耦状态多为弱解耦(20.5%)、隐性解耦(39.4%)和隐性耦合(38.5%),呈现弱解耦状态主要集中于北部地区,中部地区大部分呈现隐性解耦,隐性耦合多分布于冀南地区;2000~2020年PM2.5排放和GDP强解耦状态逐渐从弱负解耦转变为强解耦。2000年,14.8%的地区强解耦,75.3%弱负解耦,到2020年,31.5%地区弱负解耦,63.8%强解耦。3) 2010~2020年建筑业碳排放和经济的耦合协调指标小于0.4处于严重失调状态,对京津冀碳排放和经济的耦合协调影响显著。4) PM2.5和CO2排放热点由京津冀中部和南部地区逐步集中到中部地区,且高排放和高GDP区域逐步转变为低排放和高GDP区域,主要贡献行业为运输业,主要集中在京津冀中部和环渤海等地区。本研究以期能够为京津冀未来行业结构优化方向、京津冀差异化协同减排发展路径,为我国不同发展阶段的各地区实现GDP与PM2.5、CO2排放的解耦和协同减排目标提供理论依据和科学支撑。Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is facing the double challenge of PM2.5 and CO2 emission reduction, and the study of the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 in the region and the coupling relationship between their emissions and economic development is of great significance in guiding the green and sustainable development of the economy and environmental improvement. However, the existing synergistic emission reduction effect and related coupling studies are still difficult to meet the application requirements in terms of spatial resolution and industry refinement. In this paper, we use high-resolution PM2.5, CO2 and GDP emissions by industry (10 × 10 km) data, and utilize the synergistic control effect coordinate system method, the coupling coordination model, and bivariate autocorrelation analysis to assess the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 emissions from five industries in the region, namely, industrial production, transportation, energy, agriculture, and construction, and the degree of coordination of the coupling with the GDP, and to reveal The current situation of pollution and carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its evolution characteristics. The results show that: 1) CO2 and PM2.5 synergistic control effects show a fluctuating change trend of first rising-declining-rising, with the optimal synergistic effect in 2010, when PM2.5 and CO2 were jointly reduced, and the worst synergistic effect in 2014 and 2015, when PM2.5 and CO2 were jointly increased. 2) The decoupling state of CO2 emission and GDP growth from 2000 to 2020 is mostly weak decoupling (20.5%), implicit decoupling (39.4%) and implicit coupling (38.5%), presenting a weak decoupling state mainly concentrated in the northern region, most of the central region presenting an implicit decoupling, and an implicit coupling mostly distributed in the Ji’nan region;from 2000 to 2020 the PM2.5 emission and GDP strong decoupling state gradually changed from weak negative decoupling to strong decoupling. in 2000, 14.8% of the region was strongly decoupled, 75.3% weakly negatively decoupled, and by 2020, 31.5% of the region was weakly negatively decoupled, 63.8% strongly decoupled. 3) The coupling and coordination index of carbon emissions and economy of the construction industry from 2010 to 2020 is less than 0.4 is in a serious dysfunctional state, which has a significant impact on the coupling and coordination of carbon emissions and economy of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. 4) The hotspots of PM2.5 and CO2 emissions are gradually concentrated from the central and southern regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to the central region, and the high-emission and high-GDP region is gradually transformed into a low-emission and high-GDP region, with the main contributing industry being the transportation industry, which is concentrated in the central part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Bohai Rim and other regions. This study aims to provide theoretical basis and scientific support for the optimization direction of the future industry structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the development path of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei differentiated synergistic emission reduction, and the realization of decoupling and synergistic emission reduction targets of GDP and PM2.5 and CO2 emissions in regions at different stages of development in China.
