The Propagation of Disturbances Excited by Low-Frequency Oscillations in the Tropics

The propagation of disturbances excited by low-frequency oscillations in the tropics is investigated by applying the theory of wave packet dynamics. For simplicity, a linearized barotropic model is adopted and the zonal circulation is taken as basic current. Suppose that the disturbances or waves are superimposed on jet-like westerly basic cur-rent and excited by the forcing in the tropics. We have (1) only the eastward propagating (m>0, n>0 and σ>0) low-frequency disturbances and the stationary (σ = 0) waves can propagate into the middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; the others, such as the westward propagating low-frequency wave (m>0, n<0, σ<0) and the high-frequency waves, are restricted only in the vicinity of source region; (2) a stationary wave (σ = 0) reaches a given latitude even more quickly than some low-frequency ones (σ>0) due to the fact that the group velocity of stationary wave is larger; (3) there is a whole wave train excited by the forcing in the tropics and extended into the middle and high latitudes, if the amplitude of the source is independent on time, especially, the low-frequency wave (σ > 0) is of travelling type propagating along the ray; (4) if the source lasts only for an interval of time, namely, its amplitude also has the character of low-frequency oscillation, the excited wave train is not always a whole one, but is restricted in the vicinity of source region in the beginning, extended from the source region to the middle and high latitudes in its saturated stage, after that it gradually becomes weaker and weaker and is detectable only in some area at high latitude, and eventually disappears. Undoubtedly, case (4) is closer to the reality, even though case (3) gives a more impressive wavy pattern.

Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon and the Slowly Varying Disturbances

The evolution of Asian summer monsoon is analyzed by means of decomposition of the atmospheric circulationinto basic current and slowly varying monsoon disturbances. It is seen that the major slowly varying disturbances aretwo vortical couples, one located in the indian Ocean and indian Peninsula, and another in the Northern Hemisphericwestern Pacific Ocean and the East Asia. This indicates that the Asian summer monsoon consists of two branches, theIndian monsoon and the East Asian monsoon. Moreover, the analysis shows that the evolutionary processes of thesetwo vortical couples are rather independent each other, and they all can be qualitatively interpreted by the dynamicaltheory of wave packet. The different stages of summer monsoon can be very well characterized by the location and in-tensity of the two vortical couples. Besides, in particular years there exists also some quasistationary wave train andits characteristics should be further analyzed.

A Note on Some Methods Suitable for Verifying and Correcting the Prediction of Climatic Anomaly

The weighted correlation coefficient of the predicted and observed anomalies and the ratio of the weighted norm of predicted anomaly to the observed one, both together, are suggested to be suitable for the estimating of the correctness of climate prediction. The former shows the similarity of the two patterns, and the later indicates the correctness of the predicted intensity of the anomaly. The weighting function can be different for different emphasis, for example, a constant weight means that the correlation coefficient is the conventional one, but some non-uniform weight leads to the ratio of correct sign of the anomaly, the stepwise weight leads to the formulation of correctness of prediction represented by grades of the anomaly, and so on. Three methods for making correction to the prediction are given in this paper. After subtracting the mean error of the prediction, one method is developed for maximizing the similarity between the predicted and observed patterns, based on the transformation of the spatial coordinates. Another method is to minimize the mean difference between the two fields. This method can also be simplified as similar to the 'optimum interpolation' in the objective analysis of weather chart. The third method is based on the expansion of the anomaly into series of EOF, where the coefficients are the predicted but the EOFs are taken as the 'observed' calculated from historical samples.

Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms

A semi-operational real time short-term climate prediction system has been developed in the Center of Climate and Environment Prediction Research (CCEPRE), Institute of Atmospheric Physics/Chinese Academy of Sciences. The system consists of the following components: the AGCM and OGCM and their coupling, initial conditions and initialization, practical schemes of anomaly prediction, ensemble prediction and its standard deviation, correction of GCM output, and verification of prediction. The experiences of semi-operational real-time prediction by using this system for six years (1989-1994) and of hindcasting for 1980-1989 are reported. It is shown that in most cases large positive and negative anomalies of summer precipitation resulting in disastrous climate events such as severe flood or drought over East Asia can be well predicted for two seasons in advance, although the quantitatively statistical skill scores are only satisfactory due to the difficulty in correctly predicting the signs of small anomalies. Some methods for removing the systematic errors and introducing corrections to the GCM output are suggested. The sensitivity of prediction to the initial conditions and the problem of ensemble prediction are also discussed in the paper.

Simplified Dynamic Models of Grass Field Ecosystem

Some simplified dynamic models of grass field ecosystem are developed and investigated. The maximum simplified one consists of two variables, living grass biomass and soil wetness. The analyses of such models show that there exists only desert regime without grasses if the precipitation p is less than a critical value pc; the grass biomass continuously depends on p if the interaction between grass biomass and the soil wetness is weak, but the strong interaction results in the bifurcation of grass biomass in the vicinity of pc: the grass biomass is rich as p > pc, but it becomes desertification as p<pc. Periodic solutions also exist in the model, if the seasonal cycle of model's parameters is introduced. An improved model consists of three variables, i.e. the living grass biomass x, the nonliving grass biomass accumulated on the ground surface y and the soil wetness z. The behaviours of such three variables model are more complicated. The initial values of y and z play a very important role.

最简化的两变量草原生态动力学模式

本文建立了一个简化的草原生态动力学模式,它由单位面积上单一草种的草生物量和土壤湿度这两个变量组成,能够描述它们的相互作用,而其他因子,诸如土壤物理、化学特性、降水量、灌溉量、光照、温度以及消耗率(放牧和鼠、虫害等),则以参数形式出现在这组常微分方程中。定性分析表明:在已知的常定的(即无季节变化的)情况下,草生物量由稳定的平衡态所决定;对于只与土墒有弱相互作用的草种,草量连续依赖于隆水量;而对于与土墒有强相互作用的草种,则存在着临界降水量,大于临界值时有丰富草量,小于临界值时为荒漠。模式中还可给出在降水量一定情况下草原能承受的最大消耗率(放牧率),小于此值者草原可以恢复,大于此值则草原退化为荒漠。

Maximum Simplified Dynamic Model of Grass Field Ecosystem With Two Variables

Based on general consideration and analysis, a maximum simplified dynamic model of grass field ecosystem with a single species is developed. The model consists of two variables: grass biomass of grass field per unit area and soil wetness, and is suitable for describing their mutual interaction. Other factors such as physical-chemical characteristics of soil, precipitation, irrigation, sunlight, temperature and consumers, are taken into account as parameters in the dynamical system. Qualitative analysis of the model shows that grass biomass of a possible ecological regime is determined by the stable equilibrium state of the dynamical system. For the grass species interacting weakly with soil wetness the grass biomass continuously depends on the precipitation. While, for a species interacting strongly with soil wetness, grass biomass is abundant if precipitation is larger than some critical value; otherwise, it becomes a desertification regime with very little or even zero grass biomass. The model also shows that there exists a critical (maximum) consuming value, the grass field with abundant biomass can be restored if the consuming is less than the critical value; otherwise, it becomes desertification.