水库的修建改变了天然河道径流特征,给径流模拟造成一定困难。为提高径流模拟效果,基于SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)分布式水文模型,针对其水库模块的局限性,采用水库调度函数进行改进,提出了水库调度函数模块的SWAT模型,并以...水库的修建改变了天然河道径流特征,给径流模拟造成一定困难。为提高径流模拟效果,基于SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)分布式水文模型,针对其水库模块的局限性,采用水库调度函数进行改进,提出了水库调度函数模块的SWAT模型,并以金沙江流域为研究流域,进行考虑水库调蓄的径流模拟应用分析。结果表明:在水库影响期以前,SWAT模型对径流过程、均值和极大值模拟效果较好,对径流极小值模拟效果一般;在水库影响期内,调度函数拟合出库与实际出库一致性较好,且水库调度函数模块的SWAT模型可以显著提高径流模拟效果,为考虑水库调蓄的径流模拟提供了新的途径。展开更多
The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes.How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot s...The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes.How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot and frontier issue in the field of hydrology and water resources.In this research,the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model was established for the Jinsha River Basin,and the method of scenarios simulation was used to study the runoff response to climate change and LULC change.Furthermore,the climate variables exported from 7 typical General Circulation Models(GCMs)under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were bias corrected and input into the SWAT model to predict runoff in 2017-2050.Results showed that:(1)During the past 57 years,the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increased significantly while the rising trend of runoff was far from obvious.(2)Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin,the LULC change was very small.(3)During the historical period,the LULC change had little effect on the hydrological processes in the basin,and climate change was one of the main factors affecting runoff.(4)In the context of global climate change,the precipitation,temperature and runoff in the Jinsha River Basin will rise in 2017-2050 compared with the historical period.This study provides significant references to the planning and management of large-scale hydroelectric bases at the source of the Yangtze River.展开更多
文摘水库的修建改变了天然河道径流特征,给径流模拟造成一定困难。为提高径流模拟效果,基于SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)分布式水文模型,针对其水库模块的局限性,采用水库调度函数进行改进,提出了水库调度函数模块的SWAT模型,并以金沙江流域为研究流域,进行考虑水库调蓄的径流模拟应用分析。结果表明:在水库影响期以前,SWAT模型对径流过程、均值和极大值模拟效果较好,对径流极小值模拟效果一般;在水库影响期内,调度函数拟合出库与实际出库一致性较好,且水库调度函数模块的SWAT模型可以显著提高径流模拟效果,为考虑水库调蓄的径流模拟提供了新的途径。
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,N.2017YFA0603702National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.51539009,No.51339004。
文摘The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes.How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot and frontier issue in the field of hydrology and water resources.In this research,the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model was established for the Jinsha River Basin,and the method of scenarios simulation was used to study the runoff response to climate change and LULC change.Furthermore,the climate variables exported from 7 typical General Circulation Models(GCMs)under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were bias corrected and input into the SWAT model to predict runoff in 2017-2050.Results showed that:(1)During the past 57 years,the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increased significantly while the rising trend of runoff was far from obvious.(2)Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin,the LULC change was very small.(3)During the historical period,the LULC change had little effect on the hydrological processes in the basin,and climate change was one of the main factors affecting runoff.(4)In the context of global climate change,the precipitation,temperature and runoff in the Jinsha River Basin will rise in 2017-2050 compared with the historical period.This study provides significant references to the planning and management of large-scale hydroelectric bases at the source of the Yangtze River.
