Predicting short-term thromboembolic risk following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass using supervised machine learning

BACKGROUND Roux-en-Y gastric bypass(RYGB)is a widely recognized bariatric procedure that is particularly beneficial for patients with class III obesity.It aids in significant weight loss and improves obesity-related medical conditions.Despite its effectiveness,postoperative care still has challenges.Clinical evidence shows that venous thromboembolism(VTE)is a leading cause of 30-d morbidity and mortality after RYGB.Therefore,a clear unmet need exists for a tailored risk assessment tool for VTE in RYGB candidates.AIM To develop and internally validate a scoring system determining the individualized risk of 30-d VTE in patients undergoing RYGB.METHODS Using the 2016–2021 Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation Quality Improvement Program,data from 6526 patients(body mass index≥40 kg/m^(2))who underwent RYGB were analyzed.A backward elimination multivariate analysis identified predictors of VTE characterized by pulmonary embolism and/or deep venous thrombosis within 30 d of RYGB.The resultant risk scores were derived from the coefficients of statistically significant variables.The performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating curves through 5-fold cross-validation.RESULTS Of the 26 initial variables,six predictors were identified.These included a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with a regression coefficient(Coef)of 2.54(P<0.001),length of stay(Coef 0.08,P<0.001),prior deep venous thrombosis(Coef 1.61,P<0.001),hemoglobin A1c>7%(Coef 1.19,P<0.001),venous stasis history(Coef 1.43,P<0.001),and preoperative anticoagulation use(Coef 1.24,P<0.001).These variables were weighted according to their regression coefficients in an algorithm that was generated for the model predicting 30-d VTE risk post-RYGB.The risk model's area under the curve(AUC)was 0.79[95%confidence interval(CI):0.63-0.81],showing good discriminatory power,achieving a sensitivity of 0.60 and a specificity of 0.91.Without training,the same model performed satisfactorily in patients with laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy with an AUC of 0.63(95%CI:0.62-0.64)and endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty with an AUC of 0.76(95%CI:0.75-0.78).CONCLUSION This simple risk model uses only six variables to assist clinicians in the preoperative risk stratification of RYGB patients,offering insights into factors that heighten the risk of VTE events.

Gender disparities and woman-specific trends in Barrett’s esophagus in the United States:An 11-year nationwide populationbased study

BACKGROUND Barrett's esophagus(BE)is a known premalignant precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma(EAC).The prevalence rates continue to rise in the United States,but many patients who are at risk of EAC are not screened.Current practice guidelines include male gender as a predisposing factor for BE and EAC.The population-based clinical evidence regarding female gender remains limited.AIM To study comparative trends of gender disparities in patients with BE in the United States.METHODS A nationwide retrospective study was conducted using the 2009-2019 National Inpatient Sample(NIS)database.Patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis code of BE were identified.The major outcome of interest was determining the gender disparities in patients with BE.Trend analysis for respective outcomes for females was also reported to ascertain any time-based shifts.RESULTS We identified 1204190 patients with BE for the study period.Among the included patients,717439(59.6%)were men and 486751(40.4%)were women.The mean age was higher in women than in men(67.1±0.4 vs 66.6±0.3 years,P<0.001).The rate of BE per 100000 total NIS hospitalizations for males increased from 144.6 in 2009 to 213.4 in 2019(P<0.001).The rate for females increased from 96.8 in 2009 to 148.7 in 2019(P<0.001).There was a higher frequency of obesity among women compared to men(17.4%vs 12.6%,P<0.001).Obesity prevalence among females increased from 12.3%in 2009 to 21.9%in 2019(P<0.001).A lower prevalence of smoking was noted in women than in men(20.8%vs 35.7%,P<0.001).However,trend analysis showed an increasing prevalence of smoking among women,from 12.9%in 2009 to 30.7%in 2019(P<0.001).Additionally,there was a lower prevalence of alcohol abuse,Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori),and diabetes mellitus among females than males(P<0.001).Trend analysis showed an increasing prevalence of alcohol use disorder and a decreasing prevalence of H.pylori and diabetes mellitus among women(P<0.001).CONCLUSION The prevalence of BE among women has steadily increased from 2009 to 2019.The existing knowledge concerning BE development has historically focused on men,but our findings show that the risk in women is not insignificant.

Impact of COVID-19 on liver transplant recipients: A nationwide cohort study evaluating hospitalization, transplant rejection, and inpatient mortality

BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has posed a major public health concern worldwide.Patients with comorbid conditions are at risk of adverse outcomes following COVID-19.Solid organ transplant recipients with concurrent immunosuppression and comorbidities are more susceptible to a severe COVID-19 infection.It could lead to higher rates of inpatient complications and mortality in this patient population.However,studies on COVID-19 outcomes in liver transplant(LT)recipients have yielded inconsistent findings.AIM To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital-related outcomes among LT recipients in the United States.METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the 2019–2020 National Inpatient Sample database.Patients with primary LT hospitalizations and a secondary COVID-19 diagnosis were identified using the International Classi-fication of Diseases,Tenth Revision coding system.The primary outcomes included trends in LT hospitalizations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Secondary outcomes included comparative trends in inpatient mortality and transplant rejection in LT recipients.RESULTS A total of 15720 hospitalized LT recipients were included.Approximately 0.8% of patients had a secondary diagnosis of COVID-19 infection.In both cohorts,the median admission age was 57 years.The linear trends for LT hospitalizations did not differ significantly before and during the pandemic(P=0.84).The frequency of in-hospital mortality for LT recipients increased from 1.7% to 4.4% between January 2019 and December 2020.Compared to the pre-pandemic period,a higher association was noted between LT recipients and in-hospital mortality during the pandemic,with an odds ratio(OR)of 1.69[95% confidence interval(CI):1.55-1.84),P<0.001].The frequency of transplant rejections among hospitalized LT recipients increased from 0.2%to 3.6% between January 2019 and December 2020.LT hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic had a higher association with transplant rejection than before the pandemic[OR:1.53(95%CI:1.26-1.85),P<0.001].CONCLUSION The hospitalization rates for LT recipients were comparable before and during the pandemic.Inpatient mortality and transplant rejection rates for hospitalized LT recipients were increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statins decrease the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease:A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease(MASLD)is a leading cause of chronic liver disease with a significant risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Recent clinical evidence indicates the potential benefits of statins in cancer chemoprevention and therapeutics.However,it is still unclear if these drugs can lower the specific risk of HCC among patients with MASLD.AIM To investigate the impact of statin use on the risk of HCC development in patients with MASLD.METHODS A systematic review and meta-analysis of all the studies was performed that measured the effect of statin use on HCC occurrence in patients with MASLD.The difference in HCC risk between statin users and non-users was calculated among MASLD patients.We also evaluated the risk difference between lipophilic versus hydrophilic statins and the effect of cumulative dose on HCC risk reduction.RESULTS A total of four studies consisting of 291684 patients were included.MASLD patients on statin therapy had a 60%lower pooled risk of developing HCC compared to the non-statin group[relative risk(RR)=0.40,95%CI:0.31-0.53,I2=16.5%].Patients taking lipophilic statins had a reduced risk of HCC(RR=0.42,95%CI:0.28-0.64),whereas those on hydrophilic statins had not shown the risk reduction(RR=0.57,95%CI:0.27-1.20).The higher(>600)cumulative defined daily doses(cDDD)had a 70%reduced risk of HCC(RR=0.30,95%CI:0.21-0.43).There was a 29%(RR=0.71,95%CI:0.55-0.91)and 43%(RR=0.57,95%CI:0.40-0.82)decreased risk in patients receiving 300-599 cDDD and 30-299 cDDD,respectively.CONCLUSION Statin use lowers the risk of HCC in patients with MASLD.The higher cDDD and lipophilicity of statins correlate with the HCC risk reduction.

Early versus delayed necrosectomy in pancreatic necrosis:A population-based cohort study on readmission,healthcare utilization,and in-hospital mortality

BACKGROUND Acute necrotizing pancreatitis is a severe and life-threatening condition.It poses a considerable challenge for clinicians due to its complex nature and the high risk of complications.Several minimally invasive and open necrosectomy procedures have been developed.Despite advancements in treatment modalities,the optimal timing to perform necrosectomy lacks consensus.AIM To evaluate the impact of necrosectomy timing on patients with pancreatic necrosis in the United States.METHODS A national retrospective cohort study was conducted using the 2016-2019 Nationwide Readmissions Database.Patients with non-elective admissions for pancreatic necrosis were identified.The participants were divided into two groups based on the necrosectomy timing:The early group received intervention within 48 hours,whereas the delayed group underwent the procedure after 48 hours.The various intervention techniques included endoscopic,percutaneous,or surgical necrosectomy.The major outcomes of interest were 30-day readmission rates,healthcare utilization,and inpatient mortality.RESULTS A total of 1309 patients with pancreatic necrosis were included.After propensity score matching,349 cases treated with early necrosectomy were matched to 375 controls who received delayed intervention.The early cohort had a 30-day readmission rate of 8.6% compared to 4.8%in the delayed cohort(P=0.040).Early necrosectomy had lower rates of mechanical ventilation(2.9%vs 10.9%,P<0.001),septic shock(8%vs 19.5%,P<0.001),and in-hospital mortality(1.1%vs 4.3%,P=0.01).Patients in the early intervention group incurred lower healthcare costs,with median total charges of $52202 compared to$147418 in the delayed group.Participants in the early cohort also had a relatively shorter median length of stay(6 vs 16 days,P<0.001).The timing of necrosectomy did not significantly influence the risk of 30-day readmission,with a hazard ratio of 0.56(95%confidence interval:0.31-1.02,P=0.06).CONCLUSION Our findings show that early necrosectomy is associated with better clinical outcomes and lower healthcare costs.Delayed intervention does not significantly alter the risk of 30-day readmission.

Association between acute peripancreatic fluid collections and early readmission in acute pancreatitis:A propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND Patients with acute pancreatitis(AP)frequently experience hospital readmissions,posing a significant burden to healthcare systems.Acute peripancreatic fluid collection(APFC)may negatively impact the clinical course of AP.It could worsen symptoms and potentially lead to additional complications.However,clinical evidence regarding the specific association between APFC and early readmission in AP remains scarce.Understanding the link between APFC and readmission may help improve clinical care for AP patients and reduce healthcare costs.AIM To evaluate the association between APFC and 30-day readmission in patients with AP.METHODS This retrospective cohort study is based on the Nationwide Readmission Database for 2016-2019.Patients with a primary diagnosis of AP were identified.Participants were categorized into those with and without APFC.A 1:1 propensity score matching for age,gender,and Elixhauser comorbidities was performed.The primary outcome was early readmission rates.Secondary outcomes included the incidence of inpatient complications and healthcare utilization.Unadjusted analyses used Mann-Whitney U andχ2 tests,while Cox regression models assessed 30-day readmission risks and reported them as adjusted hazard ratios(aHR).Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests verified readmission risks.RESULTS A total of 673059 patients with the principal diagnosis of AP were included.Of these,5.1%had APFC on initial admission.After propensity score matching,each cohort consisted of 33914 patients.Those with APFC showed a higher incidence of inpatient complications,including septic shock(3.1%vs 1.3%,P<0.001),portal venous thrombosis(4.4%vs 0.8%,P<0.001),and mechanical ventilation(1.8%vs 0.9%,P<0.001).The length of stay(LOS)was longer for APFC patients[4(3-7)vs 3(2-5)days,P<0.001],as were hospital charges($29451 vs$24418,P<0.001).For 30-day readmissions,APFC patients had a higher rate(15.7%vs 6.5%,P<0.001)and a longer median readmission LOS(4 vs 3 days,P<0.001).The APFC group also had higher readmission charges($28282 vs$22865,P<0.001).The presence of APFC increased the risk of readmission twofold(aHR 2.52,95%confidence interval:2.40-2.65,P<0.001).The independent risk factors for 30-day readmission included female gender,Elixhauser Comorbidity Index≥3,chronic pulmonary diseases,chronic renal disease,protein-calorie malnutrition,substance use disorder,depression,portal and splenic venous thrombosis,and certain endoscopic procedures.CONCLUSION Developing APFC during index hospitalization for AP is linked to higher readmission rates,more inpatient complications,longer LOS,and increased healthcare costs.Knowing predictors of readmission can help target high-risk patients,reducing healthcare burdens.

Association between alcohol-associated cirrhosis and inpatient complications among COVID-19 patients:A propensity-matched analysis from the United

BACKGROUND Alcohol-associated cirrhosis(AC)contributes to significant liver-related mortality in the United States.It is known to cause immune dysfunction and coagulation abnormalities.Patients with comorbid conditions like AC are at risk of worse clinical outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).The specific association between AC and COVID-19 mortality remains inconclusive,given the lack of robust clinical evi-dence from prior studies.AIM To study the predictors of mortality and the outcomes of AC in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States.METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample(NIS)database 2020.Patients were identified with primary COVID-19 hospitalizations based on an underlying diagnosis of AC.A matched comparison cohort of COVID-19 patients without AC was identified after 1:N propensity score matching based on baseline sociodemographic characteristics and Elixhauser comorbidities.Primary outcomes included median length of stay,median inpatient charges,and in-hospital mortality.Secondary outcomes included a prevalence of systemic complications.RESULTS A total of 1325 COVID-19 patients with AC were matched to 1135 patients without AC.There was no difference in median length of stay and hospital charges in COVID-19 patients with AC compared to non-AC(P>0.05).There was an increased prevalence of septic shock(5.7%vs 4.1%),ventricular fibrillation/ventricular flutter(0.4%vs 0%),atrial fibrillation(13.2%vs 8.8%),atrial flutter(8.7%vs 4.4%),first-degree atrioventricular nodal block(0.8%vs 0%),upper extremity venous thromboembolism(1.5%vs 0%),and variceal bleeding(3.8%vs 0%)in the AC cohort compared to the non-AC cohort(P<0.05).There was no difference in inpatient mortality in COVID-19 patients with non-AC compared to AC,with an odds ratio of 0.97(95%confidence interval:0.78-1.22,P=0.85).Predictors of mortality included advanced age,cardiac arrhythmias,coagulopathy,protein-calorie malnutrition,fluid and electrolyte disorders,septic shock,and upper extremity venous thromboembolism.CONCLUSION AC does not increase mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.There is an increased association between inpatient complications among COVID-19 patients with AC compared to non-AC.