泊松自回归模型假设到达过程为期望与方差相等的泊松分布,但事实上真正的数据生成过程中的到达过程的方差既可以高于期望也可以低于期望.本文提出了基于Katz到达过程(Katz arrivals)的计数数据自回归模型(INAR-Katz:integer valued auto...泊松自回归模型假设到达过程为期望与方差相等的泊松分布,但事实上真正的数据生成过程中的到达过程的方差既可以高于期望也可以低于期望.本文提出了基于Katz到达过程(Katz arrivals)的计数数据自回归模型(INAR-Katz:integer valued autoregressive process with Katz arrivals).并采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法(Monte Carlo simulations)比较了INAR-Katz模型在矩估计以及极大似然估计下的估计准确程度.最后采用INAR-Katz模型对患呼吸系统疾病的急诊就诊人数进行建模,结果显示INAR-Katz模型优于普通泊松模型、PAR模型,具有很好的应用前景.展开更多
Variance of parameter estimate in Cox’s proportional hazards model is based on asymptotic variance. When sample size is small, variance can be estimated by bootstrap method. However, if censoring rate in a survival d...Variance of parameter estimate in Cox’s proportional hazards model is based on asymptotic variance. When sample size is small, variance can be estimated by bootstrap method. However, if censoring rate in a survival data set is high, bootstrap method may fail to work properly. This is because bootstrap samples may be even more heavily censored due to repeated sampling of the censored observations. This paper proposes a random weighting method for variance estimation and confidence interval estimation for proportional hazards model. This method, unlike the bootstrap method, does not lead to more severe censoring than the original sample does. Its large sample properties are studied and the consistency and asymptotic normality are proved under mild conditions. Simulation studies show that the random weighting method is not as sensitive to heavy censoring as bootstrap method is and can produce good variance estimates or confidence intervals.展开更多
The multivariate extension of the Cox model proposed by Wei,Lin and Weissfeld in 1989 has been widely used for analyzing multivariate survival data.Under the model assumption,failure times from an individual are assum...The multivariate extension of the Cox model proposed by Wei,Lin and Weissfeld in 1989 has been widely used for analyzing multivariate survival data.Under the model assumption,failure times from an individual are assumed to marginally follow their respective proportional hazards regression relation,leaving the joint distribution completely unspecified.This paper presents a simple approach to efficiency improvement through segmentation of stochastic integrals in the marginal estimating equations and incorporation of the limiting covariance structure.It is shown that when partition of the time interval is done at a suitable rate,the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.Through the reproducing kernel Hilbert space arising from the covariance function of the limiting Gaussian process,it is also shown that the proposed estimator is asymptotically optimal within a reasonable class of estimators under marginal specification.Simulations are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.展开更多
When there is uncertainty in sibling relationship,the classical affected sib-pair(ASP) linkage tests may be severely biased.This can happen,for example,if some of the half sib-pairs are mixed with full sib-pairs.The g...When there is uncertainty in sibling relationship,the classical affected sib-pair(ASP) linkage tests may be severely biased.This can happen,for example,if some of the half sib-pairs are mixed with full sib-pairs.The genomic control method has been used in association analysis to adjust for population structures.We show that the same idea can be applied to ASP linkage analysis with uncertainty in sibling relationship.Assuming that,in addition to the candidate marker,null markers that are unlinked to the disease locus are also genotyped,we may use the information on these loci to estimate the proportion of half sib-pairs and to correct for the bias and variance distortion caused by the heterogeneity of sibling relationship.Unlike in association studies,the null loci are not required to be matched with the candidate marker in allele frequency for ASP linkage analysis.This makes our approach flexible in selecting null markers.In our simulations,using a number of 30 or more null loci can effectively remove the bias and variance distortion.It is also shown that,even the null loci are weakly linked to the disease locus,the proposed method can also provide satisfactory correction.展开更多
文摘泊松自回归模型假设到达过程为期望与方差相等的泊松分布,但事实上真正的数据生成过程中的到达过程的方差既可以高于期望也可以低于期望.本文提出了基于Katz到达过程(Katz arrivals)的计数数据自回归模型(INAR-Katz:integer valued autoregressive process with Katz arrivals).并采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法(Monte Carlo simulations)比较了INAR-Katz模型在矩估计以及极大似然估计下的估计准确程度.最后采用INAR-Katz模型对患呼吸系统疾病的急诊就诊人数进行建模,结果显示INAR-Katz模型优于普通泊松模型、PAR模型,具有很好的应用前景.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10471136, 10671189)PhD Program Foundation of Ministry of Education of China and Foundations from the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Variance of parameter estimate in Cox’s proportional hazards model is based on asymptotic variance. When sample size is small, variance can be estimated by bootstrap method. However, if censoring rate in a survival data set is high, bootstrap method may fail to work properly. This is because bootstrap samples may be even more heavily censored due to repeated sampling of the censored observations. This paper proposes a random weighting method for variance estimation and confidence interval estimation for proportional hazards model. This method, unlike the bootstrap method, does not lead to more severe censoring than the original sample does. Its large sample properties are studied and the consistency and asymptotic normality are proved under mild conditions. Simulation studies show that the random weighting method is not as sensitive to heavy censoring as bootstrap method is and can produce good variance estimates or confidence intervals.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10471136 and 10971210)the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KJCX3-SYW-S02)
文摘The multivariate extension of the Cox model proposed by Wei,Lin and Weissfeld in 1989 has been widely used for analyzing multivariate survival data.Under the model assumption,failure times from an individual are assumed to marginally follow their respective proportional hazards regression relation,leaving the joint distribution completely unspecified.This paper presents a simple approach to efficiency improvement through segmentation of stochastic integrals in the marginal estimating equations and incorporation of the limiting covariance structure.It is shown that when partition of the time interval is done at a suitable rate,the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.Through the reproducing kernel Hilbert space arising from the covariance function of the limiting Gaussian process,it is also shown that the proposed estimator is asymptotically optimal within a reasonable class of estimators under marginal specification.Simulations are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 10971210)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 20110490824)
文摘When there is uncertainty in sibling relationship,the classical affected sib-pair(ASP) linkage tests may be severely biased.This can happen,for example,if some of the half sib-pairs are mixed with full sib-pairs.The genomic control method has been used in association analysis to adjust for population structures.We show that the same idea can be applied to ASP linkage analysis with uncertainty in sibling relationship.Assuming that,in addition to the candidate marker,null markers that are unlinked to the disease locus are also genotyped,we may use the information on these loci to estimate the proportion of half sib-pairs and to correct for the bias and variance distortion caused by the heterogeneity of sibling relationship.Unlike in association studies,the null loci are not required to be matched with the candidate marker in allele frequency for ASP linkage analysis.This makes our approach flexible in selecting null markers.In our simulations,using a number of 30 or more null loci can effectively remove the bias and variance distortion.It is also shown that,even the null loci are weakly linked to the disease locus,the proposed method can also provide satisfactory correction.
