Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

Impact of the cold surge event in January 2021 on the power system of China

During 6-10 January 2021,a recorded strong cold surge took place in China,with over 800 observational stations reaching their historical extremes.Unlike previous studies that focused on the response of either the power load or generation separately,this study quantitatively revealed the impacts on the balance between the demand and supply sides of the grid.On the demand side,the sensitivity of power load was found to increase substantially higher in southern China(0.533 GW°C^(−1))than in the northern region(0.139 GW°C^(−1))due to the limited municipal heating system.On the supply side,the hourly wind power generation dropped from the highest of 110 GW on 6 January to the lowest of 54 GW on 9 January due to the reduction in wind speed.In addition,a reduction in solar power generation was observed during 8-10 January.Thus,the balance of the power system was influenced by this cold event.As an effective adaptation measure,results further showed that early warning by three weeks ahead can be obtained by an operational climate model.The sensitivity of China's power system to such cold surge events may increase remarkably due to the expected increase in the proportion of wind and solar power generation in future new-type power systems.Thus,close cooperation between climate scientists and power engineers is needed to build the resilience of the power system to the cold extremes.

Revisiting BCC-SESM parameters sensitivity with BCC-CSM1.1 co_(2)-concentration-driven simulations

Based on the results of the complex climate model BCC-CSM,the Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model(BCC-SESM)was developed for climate system simulations in Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs).The first version of the BCC-SESM model was based on a high-emissions scenario(ESMRCP8.5)and tends to overestimate the temperatures in low and medium emissions scenarios.To address this problem,this study uses three CO_(2)-concentration-driven simulations under different RCP scenarios of complex climate models to evaluate parameters sensitivity and their impacts on projection efficacy.The results show that the new version of the BCC-SESM(denoted as BCC-SESM1.1)model based on a medium-emissions scenario experiment(RCP4.5)is more suitable for temperature projections for various climate scenarios.It can well reproduce the original value of complex climate model.At the same time,it also has high predictive efficacies for medium(RCP4.5)and low(RCP2.6)emissions scenarios,although it tends to underestimate for high emissions scenario(RCP8.5).The sensitivity tests for different RCP scenarios shows that the BCC-SESM1.1 has higher efficacy in projections of future climate change than those model versions based on the other scenarios.The projection deviations for the global average temperature by the BCC-SESM1.1(<2%)are better than the previous BCC-SESM(<5%).In light of recent progress in climate policy,the BCC-SESM1.1 is hence more suitable for coupling with IAMs for the purposes of assessing climate outcomes.