The Possibilities of Using the Minimax Method to Diagnose the State of the Atmosphere

The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of making erroneous diagnoses of the instability of the planetary boundary layer of air.Within the framework of this study,the task of probabilistic forecasting of diagnostic parameters and their combinations,leading in their totality to the formation of an unstable state of the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere,was carried out.It is this state that,as shown by previous studies,a priori contribution to the development of a number of weather phenomena dangerous for society(squalls,hail,heavy rains,etc.).The results of applying the minimax method made it possible to identify a number of parameters,such as the intensity of circulation,the activity of the Earth’s magnetosphere,and the components of the geostrophic wind velocity,the combination of which led to the development of instability.In the future,it is possible to further expand the number of diagnosed parameters to identify more sensitive elements.In this sense,the minimax method,the usefulness of which is shown in this study,can be considered as one of the preparatory steps for the subsequent more detailed method for forecasting individual hazardous weather phenomena.

Problems and Opportunities for Biometeorological Assessment of Conditions in Cold Season

The article is devoted to a discussion of the possibilities of biometeorological assessment of the severity of weather conditions during the cold season.The relevance of the study is ensured not only by the fact that residents of a number of states,whose total number is more than 27 million people,live in these extreme climatic conditions,but also by the need to improve biometeorological approaches to assessing the impact of these conditions on the body and health of the population.This study examined biometeorological characteristics that illustrate a measure of cold stress.These include the Siple wind-chill index;Bodman winter severity index;Arnoldi weather hardness coefficient;Mountain wind chill index;weather hardness coefficient according to I.M.Osokin.The results of a comparison of winter severity assessments based on the values of the calculated Siple and Bodman indices made it possible to establish that the Bodman index is more acceptable when assessing mildly severe winters.The most adequate for assessing the“severity”of the cold period against the background of a decrease in air temperature and an increase in wind speed is the Siple index.The need to provide the countries of the world with high-quality hydrometeorological and biometeorological forecast information is justified and relevant.In this regard,these studies are very promising.

To the Question of the Assessment of Ecological Comfort of the Climate

The article is devoted to the discussion of the advantages of assessing the environmental comfort of the climate,based on the natural features of the climate and the bioclimatic conditions of the territory.The study assessed the ecological comfort of the climate in the city of Taganrog on the basis of the developed original sequence of performing three stages of assessing the totality of bioclimatic indicators with the final calculation of the values of the integral indicator of the bioclimatic comfort of the climate.The results of the assessment showed,according to the average long-term climatic data,the presence of sub-comfortable climates with a tendency to transition to comfortable climate conditions in the warm period of the year.The cold season was distinguished by uncomfortable conditions according to long-term average climatic data.Modeling calculations of the possible risk to the health of city residents in the presence of concentrations of suspended solids in the surface air layer,together with carbon monoxide,exceeding the maximum one-time values by more than 7 times,showed that the development of possible resorptive or carcinogenic effects in these circumstances will occur in 1/3 the population of the city.The prospects for the assessment of the ecological comfort of the climate,which allow in the future to adequately calculate the magnitude of environmental risks to public health caused by pollution of the surface air layer,are shown.