Evidence of ancient rock-ice avalanches along the China-Bhutan Chomolhari Range,and their implications for demise of the summit

Large-scale rock-ice avalanches resulting from the interaction of tectonics and climate are characterized with high mobility,huge volumes of sediment,and rapid denudation,being a major agent of landscape evolution in high altitude mountainous regions.Specifically,the extreme glaciated slope failures often transform into extraordinarily large and mobile debris flows,resulting in disastrous consequences such as sedimentation and desertification.Due to a dearth of on-site observation data and experimental data collection,our comprehension of the geomorphic and kinematic characteristics of rock-ice avalanches remains poor.Here we report a cluster of ancient rock-ice avalanches spreading along the Chomolhari range of the China-Bhutan Himalayas.By integrating remote sensing image interpretation with detailed field investigations,we demonstrate the geomorphic and sedimentary characteristics of four events among the avalanches.The estimated volumes of the four are 23.73 Mm³,39.69 Mm³,38.43 Mm³,and 38.25 Mm³,respectively.The presence of pre-existing moraines or alluvial fans constrained their movement,resulting in deposition features such as marginal digitated lobes at higher elevations and large depressed areas in the interior.Applying the Savage-Hutter theory,we calculate the basal friction angle and travel angle of these ancient rock-ice avalanches that are both less than 10°,affirming the similarity of these avalanches in the study area to those occurring in other regions.Our study significantly contributes to understanding the geomorphic and kinematic characteristics of rock-ice avalanches in high-altitude mountainous regions,providing valuable insights into their response to the disproportionate growth of Himalayan peaks.

Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China

Systematically determining the discriminatory power of various rainfall properties and their combinations in identifying debris flow occurrence is crucial for early warning systems.In this study,we evaluated the discriminatory power of different univariate and multivariate rainfall threshold models in identifying triggering conditions of debris flow in the Jiangjia Gully,Yunnan Province,China.The univariate models used single rainfall properties as indicators,including total rainfall(R_(tot)),rainfall duration(D),mean intensity(I_(mean)),absolute energy(Eabs),storm kinetic energy(E_(s)),antecedent rainfall(R_(a)),and maximum rainfall intensity over various durations(I_(max_dur)).The evaluation reveals that the I_(max_dur)and Eabs models have the best performance,followed by the E_(s),R_(tot),and I_(mean)models,while the D and R_(a)models have poor performances.Specifically,the I_(max_dur)model has the highest performance metrics at a 40-min duration.We used logistic regression to combine at least two rainfall properties to establish multivariate threshold models.The results show that adding D or R_(a)to the models dominated by Eabs,E_(s),R_(tot),or I_(mean)generally improve their performances,specifically when D is combined with I_(mean)or when R_(a)is combined with Eabs or E_(s).Including R_(a)in the I_(max_dur)model,it performs better than the univariate I_(max_dur)model.A power-law relationship between I_(max_dur)and R_(a)or between Eabs and R_(a)has better performance than the traditional I_(mean)–D model,while the performance of the E_(s)–R_(a)model is moderate.Our evaluation reemphasizes the important role of the maximum intensity over short durations in debris flow occurrence.It also highlights the importance of systematically investigating the role of R_(a)in establishing rainfall thresholds for triggering debris flow.Given the regional variations in rainfall patterns worldwide,it is necessary to evaluate the findings of this study across diverse watersheds.

Quantifying the impact of earthquakes and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow prone areas:A case study in the Hengduan Mountains

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas holds significant implications for regional risk management, particularly in seismically active regions with geological faults. Despite the significance of this knowledge, a comprehensive quantification of the influence of regional topographical and geological factors on the spatial heterogeneity of debris-flow-prone areas has been lacking. This study selected the Hengduan Mountains, an earthquake-prone region characterized by diverse surface conditions and complex landforms, as a representative study area. An improved units zoning and objective factors identification methodology was employed in earthquake and fault analysis to assess the impact of seismic activity and geological factors on spatial heterogeneity of debrisflow prone areas. Results showed that the application of GIS technology with hydrodynamic intensity and geographical units analysis can effectively analyze debris-flow prone areas. Meanwhile, earthquake and fault zones obviously increase the density of debrisflow prone catchments and make them unevenly distributed. The number of debris-flow prone areas shows a nonlinear variation with the gradual increase of geomorphic factor value. Specifically, the area with 1000 m-2500 m elevation difference, 25°-30° average slope, and 0.13-0.15 land use index is the most favorable conditions for debris-flow occurrence;The average annual rainfall from 600 to 1150 mm and landslides gradient from 16° to 35° are the main causal factors to trigger debris flow. Our study sheds light on the quantification of spatial heterogeneity in debris flow-prone areas in earthquake-prone regions, which can offer crucial support for post-debris flow risk management strategies.

Characteristics of Earthquake-Triggered Landslides and Post-Earthquake Debris Flows in Beichuan County

Field investigations and aerial photography after the earthquake of May 12, 2008 show a large number of geo-hazards in the zone of extreme earthquake effects. In particular, landslides and debris flows, the geo-hazards that most threaten post-disaster reconstruction, are widely distributed. We describe the characteristics of these geo-hazards in Beichuan County using high-resolution remote sensing of landslide distribution, and the relationships between the area and volume of landslides and the peak-discharges of debris flows both pre- and post-earthquake. The results show： 1） The concentration （defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area： Lc） of earthquake- triggered landslides is inversely correlated with distance from the earthquake （DF） fault. The relationship is described by the following equation： Lc = 3.2264exp（-0.0831DF） （R2 = 0.9246）; 2） 87 % of the earthquake-triggered landslides were less than 15× 10^4 m2 in area, and these accounted only for 5o% of the total area; 84% of the landslide volumes were less than 60×10^4 m3, and these accounted only for 50% of the total volume. The probability densities of the area and volume distributions are correlated： landslide abundance increases with landslide area and volume up to maximum values of 5 ×10^4m2 and 30 ×10^4 m3, respectively, and then decreases exponentially. 3） The area （AL） and volume （VL） of earthquake-triggered landslides are correlated as described with the following equation： VL=6.5138AL1.0227 （R2 = 0.9231）; 4）Characteristics of the debris flows changed after the earthquake because of the large amount of landslide material deposited in the gullies. Consequently, debris flow peak-discharge increased following the earthquake as described with the following equation： Vpost = 0.8421Vprel-0972 （R2 = 0.9821） （Vpre is the peak discharge ofpre-earthquake flows and the Vpost is the peak discharge of post-earthquake flows）. We obtained the distribution of the landslides based on the above analyses, as well as the magnitude of both the landslides and the post-earthquake debris flows. The results can be useful for guiding post-disaster reconstruction and recovery efforts, and for the future mitigation of these geo-hazards. However, the equations presented are not recommended for use in site-specific designs. Rather, we recommend their use for mapping regional seismic landslide hazards or for the preliminary, rapid screening of sites.

高钢级山地管道设计及安全性评估的再认识

永久性地面变形(permanent ground deformation,PGD)是造成山地管道屈曲断裂泄露并导致重大生命、财产损失的主要原因之一。现有PGD区山地管道“基于应变”的设计及安全性评估方法和技术标准对在役高钢级管道安全性评估偏于危险,亟待对其进行进一步的研究。针对山地复杂PDG工况下的“许用应变”及“计算应变”,从山地管道的主要失效模式着手,对山地管道管–土相互作用的应变计算方法(解析法、数值分析法及试验法)及安全性评估方法的技术现状及存在问题进行了分析,并结合我国山地管道未来的发展趋势及生产需要,提出了考虑在役管道的实际工况,进行基于管–土相互作用规律的设计及安全性评估方法的研究路径和内容。

地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估

泥石流易发性同时受静态和动态地质环境致灾因子的影响,呈现为动态变化过程。基于动态易发性与静态易发性为线性关系的假设,提出了考虑地震和降雨影响的灾害易发性动态评估模型。地震对易发性的影响系数为地震烈度的2次方函数,且与时间为负幂律关系。降雨的影响系数与归一化的大雨发生天数为正比关系。应用提出的方法和模型,用相对高差、坡度、岩性和断裂带密度计算了横断山区的静态易发性,分析了2000~2015年横断山区地震事件的影响和大雨事件的年际变化规律,计算了地震影响系数和降雨影响系数,得到了横断山区2000~2015年的逐年易发性分区图。

丹巴县梅龙沟“6.17”泥石流灾害链调查

2020年6月17日,四川省甘孜州丹巴县半扇门乡梅龙沟暴发大规模泥石流灾害,形成暴雨-泥石流-滑坡-堰塞湖-洪涝灾害链。在前期短历时强降雨激发下,梅龙沟沟道径流沿途铲刮沟道松散堆积物,泥石流冲出量约2.4×10^5m^3,进入主河约1.3×10^5m^3,形成堰塞坝;自然溃流后的泥石流坝残体挤压小金川河,迫使河水冲刷掏蚀对岸阿娘寨古滑坡坡脚,引发红梁木包包和烂水湾两处次级滑坡。古滑坡因之局部失稳复活,约6.6×10^6 m^3坡体变形剧烈,坡体整体下挫,表面拉裂缝发育,强变形区边缘裂隙已经贯通,整体处于不稳定状态。分析表明,丹巴县梅龙沟灾害具有典型的灾害链生效应,严重危及上下游。现场监测表明,阿娘寨古滑坡整体滑动可能性大,如失稳后可能形成大规模堰塞湖,危险性极高,应提前防护应对。

金沙江折向东流的地质背景、古堰塞湖沉积、第四纪河流演化

金沙江干流展布受控于青藏高原东南缘的地质构造。沿川滇菱形断块西侧金沙江大断裂南流的金沙江,受断块南部楚雄—元谋隆起的阻挡,在石鼓附近折向东流,形成“长江第一湾”。位于金沙江断裂以西的澜沧江和怒江,因未受川滇菱形断块的影响,一直南流经东南亚入海。金沙江奔子栏—巧家河段的堰塞湖,自下游到上游主要有巧家湖、龙街湖、昔格达湖、涛源湖、大具湖、石鼓湖和奔子栏湖等。这些堰塞湖沉积均为大型河流的过水湖快速沉积,沉积相的最大特点是:粒度均一的厚层—巨厚层河湖相沉积,除孢子花粉外,几无其他化石,至今未发现哺乳动物化石。由于是过水湖快速沉积,古地磁、热释光、光释光、电子自旋共振等测年技术不适用于金沙江干流堰塞湖沉积物。根据可信度较高的上覆风成沉积物和昔格达组底部砂层宇生核素10Be—26Al埋藏年龄,金沙江奔子栏—巧家河段堰塞湖沉积物年龄上限为晚更新世,下限为早更新世晚期。第四纪以来的构造运动,特别是0.8Ma以来的昆黄、共和运动,导致青藏高原东南缘的横断山脉快速隆升和冰冻圈形成,促进了堰塞湖的形成和溃决。考虑到冰冻圈出现的影响,金沙江奔子栏—巧家河段堰塞湖可能形成于0.8Ma(昆黄运动)以后,沉积物年龄为中—晚更新世。

我国与美国、日本山洪灾害现状及防治对比

为总结我国山洪灾害防治效果并找出我国山洪灾害防治与先进国家之间的差距,对我国、美国、日本在山洪灾害自然社会条件、灾害概况、山洪防治预算、监测预警、法律体系及科普教育方面进行了对比。结果表明,我国山洪灾害防治取得了较大成绩,2011年以来,山洪灾害年均死亡人数较前10 a下降63%,但与美、日相比还存在较大差距,我国山洪灾害防治投入比例较美国、日本低;山洪监测预警水平与美国山洪预警理论存在较大差距;美国、日本山洪防治的法律体系较为健全,我国在这方面仍为空白,在山洪灾害科普宣传的专业性、趣味性及针对性方面也存在较大的差距。

古老的长江,年轻的三峡

长江的形成演化长期以来一直是地貌学界关注的热点。论文在构造—气候—地貌耦合体系的框架下,通过长江上游不同类型河流阶地空间分布格局的分析,推演新生代以来长江上游的水系演化过程。古近纪长江上游地区为断陷湖盆内流水系,长江尚未形成。古老的长江形成于新近纪,川江是古长江的上游,在乌江汇口涪陵附近南流,沿乌江—沅江—洞庭湖汇入长江中游河段。这一时期,金沙江南流入海,未东流汇入川江。三峡贯通大致发生于新近纪—第四纪之交(年轻的三峡),原沿乌江南流的川江被袭夺东流,四川盆地内的川江及支流下切,形成连续稳定分布的基座阶地。西部高原的南北向古水系被袭夺东流,横断山区的金沙江、大渡河和岷江等河流急遽下切,深切河谷内滑坡阻河溃决形成的堰塞湖阶地发育。金沙江等河流溯源侵蚀过程仍在继续,但尚未影响到裂点以上的青藏高原面上河段,这些河段河谷内的阶地为堆积或埋藏阶地。分布于珠江流域的盲鱼(Sinocyclocheilus sanxiaensis,~0.55 Ma)出现在秭归附近的长江和云南高原与川中丘陵紫色土酸碱度的差异(前者酸性,后者中性偏碱性),这两个证据也是“年轻的三峡”的佐证。

滑坡灾害监测与预测预报研究现状及展望

我国滑坡灾害点多、面广,活动频繁,每年都会造成严重的经济损失和人员伤亡,是我国地质灾害主控灾型,监测与预测预报是滑坡灾害防灾减灾的重要途径.首先,系统讨论滑坡监测内容与技术的优势和局限性,归纳并对比分析各监测技术的利弊特征与适用条件.其次,从空间预测与时间预报两个方面,总结滑坡测预报模型的最新进展,并分析各类预测预报模型的优势与局限性.然后,讨论滑坡监测与预测预报研究现状中存在的问题.滑坡监测技术针对性强,但整体适用性、综合监测的集成性及仪器在恶劣环境下的存活率与稳定性等方面与实际需求相比还存在差距.滑坡综合预报模型多为综合方法分析单一内容,其多维性与准确性仍有优化空间.气象类预报模型弱化了对滑坡失稳破坏机理的认识.最后,针对存在的问题,根据国家减灾需求,建议基于各监测手段的独特优势,优化其工程适用性和可靠性,加强综合监测技术的集成性,提高综合监测信息的融合分析能力.深化滑坡预测预报模型对地质体失稳破坏机理的分析,优化综合预测预报模型方法与内容上的多维性,从而提高对滑坡运动预测的整体性和准确性.

横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价

以横断山区的崩滑流山地灾害为研究对象,选取坡度、坡向、曲率、相对高差、岩性、断裂带密度和河网密度作为该区域山地灾害静态危险性的评价因子,采用频率比法计算了横断山区山地灾害静态危险度。在此基础上,重点考虑降雨因子对山地灾害危险性动态变化的影响,并基于灰色关联度法确定静态危险度和降雨因子对山地灾害动态危险性影响的相对权重,最后采用因子叠加法实现了横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价。相关研究成果对于横断山区的发展规划和山地灾害的防灾减灾工作具有重要指导意义。

横断山区山地灾害的动态风险性评价

对横断山区山地灾害进行科学的动态风险评价,可为区域防灾减灾工作提供重要的科学依据,同时对该区域的社会和谐稳定、经济稳步发展具有重要的现实意义。本文以横断山区为研究区,以五年年际变化为动态变化时间尺度,构建了山地灾害风险动态评价模型。首先选取发育山地灾害的本底因子作为静态危险度评价因子,采用频率比法计算了静态危险度,采用因子叠加法实现了横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价;然后选取人口密度、GDP密度和土地利用类型作为动态易损性评价指标,通过简化模型完成了动态易损性评价;最后根据风险评价模型结合动态危险性和动态易损性评价结果,得到了横断山区山地灾害不同年份的风险区划图并完成了动态风险评价。主要结果分述如下:(1)横断山区北部、西北部危险性低,为低和中危险性集中区;南部、东南部危险性高,为高和极高危险性集中区;(2)位于横断山区南部及东北部的高和极高危险区的地区人口较为密集,经济活动性较强,其易损性等级比较高,相应的风险级别同样较高;(3)横断山区受强降雨次数、人口密度、GDP密度和土地利用的动态变化的影响,各年山地灾害的风险性的空间分布范围具有比较明显的差异,横断山区的风险性随时间动态变化。

金沙江堰塞湖细粒碎屑沉积物元素地球化学特征及其对河流演化的指示

堰塞湖沉积物是研究水系演化和区域构造活动的关键对象。本文对金沙江奔子栏-巧家河段新生代堰塞湖、下伏河流相及现代河滩沉积物细粒泥沙(<0.063 mm),进行元素地球化学特征分析,揭示各堰塞湖物源变化情况,并探讨对金沙江水系演化的指示意义。研究发现:1.萨赛登、奔子栏、石鼓、涛源和金塘等堰塞湖与现代河滩沉积物的元素地球化学特征相同,物源一致,泥沙均主要来源于金沙江;2.下伏于昔格达组的格里坪河流砾石层与下游拉鲊昔格达组剖面的元素地球化学特征与其它堰塞湖相同,泥沙来源于金沙江;而受支流雅砻江来沙影响,昔格达村和炳草岗等处昔格达组的微量元素特征不同于格里坪下伏河流相和拉鲊剖面及其它堰塞湖沉积;3.奔子栏-巧家河段各堰塞湖、下伏河流相及现代河滩物源的一致性表明,这些堰塞湖形成前,东流的金沙江已经形成,并且物源至今没有发生过重大变化。

震区泥石流物源与冲出量的关系--以四川汶川县簇头沟为例

汶川地震诱发的崩滑体不断地动态演变,为泥石流提供了丰富的松散固体物源,造成震后数年间暴发多次群发性泥石流灾害。分析震区崩滑体(物源)时空上的变化以及与泥石流规模(冲出量)大小的关系,可为震后灾害链的长期效应和防灾减灾提供科学依据。目前,冲出量多基于单次泥石流或多次泥石流后形成的堆积物进行估算,利用遥感技术结合现场踏勘来确定泥石流冲出物的相关研究不多。本文选取汶川震区簇头沟流域为研究对象,通过野外调查、遥感解译和冲出量计算模型构建相结合的方法,分析流域内物源动态演变特征,探究沟道内崩滑体物源量变化与簇头沟多次泥石流冲出量的关系。结果表明:(1)簇头沟下游支沟物源量在2013年泥石流后不断减少,而上游支沟内物源量自2019年泥石流后增加显著;(2)三次泥石流的物源量与冲出量呈现一定的线性关系,而总冲出量相对于流域内总物源量的占比不足5%,仍有大量物源堆积于沟道内;(3)主沟道拦沙坝的拦蓄能力逐年下降,需继续加强清淤力度,且上部沟道和支沟亦应增加相应的防治措施。本研究有助于认识震区崩滑体演变特征及其对震后泥石流的影响,并为优化泥石流灾害防治工程选址提供理论指导。

泥石流阵流的物质组成、流量过程与形态特征

阵性运动是黏性泥石流的主要运动形式,但对泥石流阵流过程中各参数变化规律的研究较少。以蒋家沟泥石流为研究对象,依据2001年7月8日泥石流监测数据,对黏性泥石流阵流的物质组成、流量过程与形态特征进行了分析。结果表明:泥石流阵流固体颗粒粒径范围较大、以粗颗粒为主,具有良好的分形特征,粒度分维值与泥石流的容重、颗粒含量、分选系数、峰值流量、峰值流速、最大输沙率等特征参数之间有明显的函数关系,说明分形特征可以较好地反映阵流流态变化过程;阵流流量呈先增大后减小的变化规律,流速具有双峰特征,流量、流速的变化虽然不同步但存在相关性,流速限制着流量的变化;流量是影响输沙率的因素之一,输沙率与流量线性正相关;可用泥石流深宽比反映阵流的横向形态特征,阵流流量随着深宽比的增大呈幂次减小。

Measuring the Internal Velocity of Debris Flows Using Impact Pressure Detecting in the Flume Experiment

Measuring the internal velocity of debris flows is very important for debris flow dynamics research and designing debris flow control works. However, there is no appropriate method for measuring the internal velocity because of the destructive power of debris flow process. In this paper, we address this problem by using the relationship between velocity and kinetic pressure, as described by surface velocity and surface kinetic pressure data. Kinetic pressure is the difference of impact pressure and static pressure. The former is detected by force sensors installed in the flow direction at the sampling section. Observations show that static pressure can be computed using the formula for static water pressure by simply substituting water density for debris flow density. We describe the relationship between surface velocity and surface kinetic pressure using data from seven laboratory flume experiments. It is consistent with the relationship for single phase flow, which is the measurement principle of the Pitot tube.

Characteristic Rainfall for Warning of Debris Flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow.The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase,and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows.Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin,Yunnan Province,in southwestern China,demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall.It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram.The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution.It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin,a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

A Probabilistic View of Debris Flow

Most debris flows occur in valleys of area smaller than 50 km2. While associated with a valley, debris flow is by no means a full-valley event but originates from parts of the valley, i.e., the tributary sources. We propose that debris flow develops by extending from tributaries to the mainstream. The debris flow observed in the mainstream is the confluence of the tributary flows and the process of the confluence can be considered as a combination of the tributary elements. The frequency distribution of tributaries is found subject to the Weibull form (or its generalizations). And the same distribution form applies to the discharge of debris flow. Then the process of debris flow is related to the geometric structure of the valley. Moreover, viewed from a large scale of water system, all valleys are tributaries, which have been found to assume the same distribution. With each valley corresponding to a debris flow, the distribution can be taken as the frequency distribution of debris flow and therefore provides a quantitative description of the fact that debris flow is inclined to occur at valley of small size. Furthermore, different parameters appear in different regions, suggesting the regional differentials of debris flow potential. We can use the failure rate, instead of the size per se, to describe the risk of a valley of a given area. Finally we claim that the valleys of debris flow in different regions are in the similar episode of evolution.

Model and Method of Debris Flow Risk Zoning Based on Momentum Analysis

A model of debris flow risk zoning is carried out with momentum analysis of debris flow. This model zones the debris flow inundation fan with density and velocity calculated by numerical simulation. The risk classification standard is determined according to the ultimate bearing capacities of different structures under impacting. And the ultimate bearing capacities are tested by impact failure experiment of destruction. Two structures typical in Chinese mountain towns, reinforced concrete frame construction and brickwork with concrete, are chosen in the experiment. The model makes debris flow risk zoning quantitative and the results comparable widely. The results differ much from that of other methods especially in the identification of medium and low risk zones.