Week Ahead Electricity Power and Price Forecasting Using Improved DenseNet-121 Method

In the Smart Grid(SG)residential environment,consumers change their power consumption routine according to the price and incentives announced by the utility,which causes the prices to deviate from the initial pattern.Thereby,electricity demand and price forecasting play a significant role and can help in terms of reliability and sustainability.Due to the massive amount of data,big data analytics for forecasting becomes a hot topic in the SG domain.In this paper,the changing and non-linearity of consumer consumption pattern complex data is taken as input.To minimize the computational cost and complexity of the data,the average of the feature engineering approaches includes:Recursive Feature Eliminator(RFE),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGboost),Random Forest(RF),and are upgraded to extract the most relevant and significant features.To this end,we have proposed the DensetNet-121 network and Support Vector Machine(SVM)ensemble with Aquila Optimizer(AO)to ensure adaptability and handle the complexity of data in the classification.Further,the AO method helps to tune the parameters of DensNet(121 layers)and SVM,which achieves less training loss,computational time,minimized overfitting problems and more training/test accuracy.Performance evaluation metrics and statistical analysis validate the proposed model results are better than the benchmark schemes.Our proposed method has achieved a minimal value of the Mean Average Percentage Error(MAPE)rate i.e.,8%by DenseNet-AO and 6%by SVM-AO and the maximum accurateness rate of 92%and 95%,respectively.

Energy Theft Identification Using Adaboost Ensembler in the Smart Grids

One of the major concerns for the utilities in the Smart Grid(SG)is electricity theft.With the implementation of smart meters,the frequency of energy usage and data collection from smart homes has increased,which makes it possible for advanced data analysis that was not previously possible.For this purpose,we have taken historical data of energy thieves and normal users.To avoid imbalance observation,biased estimates,we applied the interpolation method.Furthermore,the data unbalancing issue is resolved in this paper by Nearmiss undersampling technique and makes the data suitable for further processing.By proposing an improved version of Zeiler and Fergus Net(ZFNet)as a feature extraction approach,we had able to reduce the model’s time complexity.To minimize the overfitting issues,increase the training accuracy and reduce the training loss,we have proposed an enhanced method by merging Adaptive Boosting(AdaBoost)classifier with Coronavirus Herd Immunity Optimizer(CHIO)and Forensic based Investigation Optimizer(FBIO).In terms of low computational complexity,minimized over-fitting problems on a large quantity of data,reduced training time and training loss and increased training accuracy,our model outperforms the benchmark scheme.Our proposed algorithms Ada-CHIO andAda-FBIO,have the low MeanAverage Percentage Error(MAPE)value of error,i.e.,6.8%and 9.5%,respectively.Furthermore,due to the stability of our model our proposed algorithms Ada-CHIO and Ada-FBIO have achieved the accuracy of 93%and 90%.Statistical analysis shows that the hypothesis we proved using statistics is authentic for the proposed technique against benchmark algorithms,which also depicts the superiority of our proposed techniques.