Nearly one year into the so-called ＂decade of transformation＂, Afghanistan is plagued by challenging circumstances. The government of national unity continues to be weak, the economy has failed to deliver on its pro...Nearly one year into the so-called ＂decade of transformation＂, Afghanistan is plagued by challenging circumstances. The government of national unity continues to be weak, the economy has failed to deliver on its promise and an increasingly fractured insurgency is making inroads in parts of the country previously believed to be stable. Addressing these pressing concerns requires a concerted effort by Afghanistan＇s international partners in support of the Afghan government. NATO, Western and, most significantly, US engagement in Afghanistan will continue. The American announcement to extend military engagement beyond December 2016 is a reflection of growing concern in Washington about the deteriorating security situation on the ground. But the economy is still failing to deliver much promise, with a continuing exodus of currency as well as brain drain further weakening the economy. Major mining prospects, perceived to be the economic bulwark upon which a sustainable Afghan economy could be built, have to date failed to deliver on their initial promise.展开更多
As NATO and Western powers begin to take a backseat in Afghanistan＇s future,one of the most pressing questions is what role the region can play in helping Afghanistan to become a prosperous and stable nation.Numerous...As NATO and Western powers begin to take a backseat in Afghanistan＇s future,one of the most pressing questions is what role the region can play in helping Afghanistan to become a prosperous and stable nation.Numerous efforts are already underway through multilateral and bilateral forums,yet the key to regional cooperation for Afghanistan＇ s future lies through closer interaction between Beijing and New Delhi.Drawing on a research project spanning a number of workshops in Beijing,New Delhi and Qatar and involving influential thinkers and experts from China,India,the UK and Afghanistan,this paper will try to map out specific ideas that policymakers in Beijing and New Delhi can explore as avenues of cooperation.Post-2014 Afghanistan will remain a major regional concern for at least the short to medium term.The earlier China and India can develop workable collaborative undertakings,the sooner they can forge a stable and prosperous neighbourhood.展开更多
The regional hotspots of South Asia in 2015 may be looked at from two angles.In the first place,the reconstruction process in Afghanistan has run into serious difficulties,with several major transitions'uncomplete...The regional hotspots of South Asia in 2015 may be looked at from two angles.In the first place,the reconstruction process in Afghanistan has run into serious difficulties,with several major transitions'uncompleted,'casting ambiguity on the future of the Kabul regime.In 2014,Afghanistan,together with the international community,tried hard to advance its political,economic and security reconstructions.Although some achievements have been made,the three transitions have not been completed,leaving'unfinished projects'for 2015.First,in security,despite the fact that the Afghanistan War,led by the U.S.and NATO,was over,the chaos that has ensued from this war is展开更多
Since 2020,the Modi government has sought to implement the policy of industrial substitution for China as an important approach to economic autonomy and industrial rejuvenation.Based on the Modi government’s industri...Since 2020,the Modi government has sought to implement the policy of industrial substitution for China as an important approach to economic autonomy and industrial rejuvenation.Based on the Modi government’s industrial policy practices,its substitution policy for Chinese industries comprises three parts.A favorable domestic political ecology,an encouraging geostrategic environment,and a relatively solid industrial foundation provide the Modi government with the conditions and confidence to implement this policy.Nevertheless,owing to the conservatism of India’s domestic political culture,expediency in helping and appeasing India by the US,reversal of economic globalization,and sustainability of China’s industrial policy to break new ground,Modi’s substitution policy for Chinese industries has found limited success.However,considering India’s substantial economic size and the strategic support of the US and other developed nations in the West,the Modi government’s substitution policy for Chinese industries can still disrupt China’s efforts to build and maintain a healthier production chain.展开更多
Conflict between India and China at the Galwan Valley has brought their bilateral relations to the lowest point since the border war in 1962.Although this conflict appeared incidental,it in fact was the inevitable res...Conflict between India and China at the Galwan Valley has brought their bilateral relations to the lowest point since the border war in 1962.Although this conflict appeared incidental,it in fact was the inevitable result of India's tough foreign policy featuring"high risk,high yield"pursued by the Modi administration toward China.The subsequent measures of India's tough diplomacy toward China have become more frequent,reflecting both a desire to seek revenge and a deep level of India's logic.Such logic considers not only the policy inertia of India's long-term pursuit of absolute security and dominance in the regional order.but also the intention of Modi's government to overtake China by taking advantages of India's favorable external strategic environment.The existing structural contradictions in China-India relations and the right-leaning tendencies in India's domestic political ecology have laid the groundwork for this conflict to occur and for the Modi administration to pursue a tough foreign policy toward China.This conflict has once again shown the rapid decay of the existing operational mechanism and architecture of thei bilateral relations,which can no longer smooth over the complex interactions between the two major emerging neighbors.As a result,the moment has arrived for China and India to restructure their relations,otherwise their relationship can hardly be continued.展开更多
The current international order,especially regionally speaking,is chaotic,with the following four main features:First,the great game between the U.S.and China is the key driver behind contemporary changes to the inter...The current international order,especially regionally speaking,is chaotic,with the following four main features:First,the great game between the U.S.and China is the key driver behind contemporary changes to the international order.Both China and the U.S.are big powers with global influence:One is the biggest展开更多
The reconstruction of Afghanistan has been gathering momentum since March 2009 when the U.S. President Barack Obama＇s administration first announced its Afghanistan-Pakistan especially true since July 1st, 2011, （AF...The reconstruction of Afghanistan has been gathering momentum since March 2009 when the U.S. President Barack Obama＇s administration first announced its Afghanistan-Pakistan especially true since July 1st, 2011, （AFPAC） Strategy.lThis has been when U.S. troops began first withdrawing from Afghanistan.展开更多
Currently, since regional arrangements or multilateral arrangements between China and South Asia as a whole are still at an early stage, bilateral relations between China and South Asia are mainly country specific. In...Currently, since regional arrangements or multilateral arrangements between China and South Asia as a whole are still at an early stage, bilateral relations between China and South Asia are mainly country specific. In 2006, there展开更多
India has upheld extremely rich practices of national security since its founding as a republic because of its unique geo-environmental features, historical legacies, and traditional cultures, which reflect a type of ...India has upheld extremely rich practices of national security since its founding as a republic because of its unique geo-environmental features, historical legacies, and traditional cultures, which reflect a type of national security strategy that has distinct Indian characteristics. Generally, successive governments in India have followed the basic principles articulated in Kautilya’s Arthasastra and various security practices adopted during the British Raj. India’s national security strategies are based on an internal logic of geopolitical rivalry and changes in international scenarios, and they are strongly influenced by Hindu traditions and the “Sad-Dharma” purported by King Ashoka. The objective is to create an India-dominated security order in the South Asian subcontinent, which persistently builds its capacity and system as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean Rim. Moreover, India is vigorously expanding its network of influence in the Pacific region in an effort to become a world leading power that enjoys a high level of strategic autonomy.展开更多
Doklam Standoff, a crisis of Sino-Indian bilateral relations, was a large-scale military deployment between China and India. The crisis reflects the newly forming distrust between the two countries that led to an outb...Doklam Standoff, a crisis of Sino-Indian bilateral relations, was a large-scale military deployment between China and India. The crisis reflects the newly forming distrust between the two countries that led to an outburst as a result of a series of conflicts over the past two years, which signifies that Sino-Indian relations are entering a new stage characterized by increasingly obvious structural conflict. On the surface, the Modi Administration designed the crisis to stop China from building border infrastructure, to pursue its own absolute security, to maintain South Asian order dominated by India, and to consolidate the basis of strategic cooperation among India, the United States and Japan. Ultimately, however, the British buffer zone theory, the Mandala theory, the Brahmin supremacy theory in traditional Indian culture and the US Monroe Doctrine have also shaped the mindset and behavioral patterns of the Modi Administration. Under the influence of seeking absolute security and its strategic culture, as well as the strong desire to be a great power, the assertive Modi Administration has obviously strengthened its precautionary measures and hostilities toward China. The relations between the two countries are becoming tense. In order to achieve the goal of ＂dragon and elephant dancing together＂, and to avoid the recurrence of crises like the Doklam Standoff, the two sides have to adhere to the two basic principles of viewing each other as opporttmities for development instead of threats to each other. The mindset of a zero-sum game should be abandoned, and efforts should be made to co-found mutual respect and win-win cooperation in areas of common interest.展开更多
In terms of the Indian troops＇ crossing into the Chinese territory of Donglang and their faceoff with Chinese border guards, the Indian Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made three ma- jor mistakes：
I.The Main Features of the Current Asian Security Situation The strategic game between China and the United States becomes the most powerful driving force to change the Asian traditional security situation.The United ...I.The Main Features of the Current Asian Security Situation The strategic game between China and the United States becomes the most powerful driving force to change the Asian traditional security situation.The United States has tried its best to delay China’s rising pace or"to standardize"China’s rising path by using its huge military advantage and forward military deployment and strengthening its security network of alliance and friends,so as to maintain its dominant position展开更多
文摘Nearly one year into the so-called ＂decade of transformation＂, Afghanistan is plagued by challenging circumstances. The government of national unity continues to be weak, the economy has failed to deliver on its promise and an increasingly fractured insurgency is making inroads in parts of the country previously believed to be stable. Addressing these pressing concerns requires a concerted effort by Afghanistan＇s international partners in support of the Afghan government. NATO, Western and, most significantly, US engagement in Afghanistan will continue. The American announcement to extend military engagement beyond December 2016 is a reflection of growing concern in Washington about the deteriorating security situation on the ground. But the economy is still failing to deliver much promise, with a continuing exodus of currency as well as brain drain further weakening the economy. Major mining prospects, perceived to be the economic bulwark upon which a sustainable Afghan economy could be built, have to date failed to deliver on their initial promise.
文摘As NATO and Western powers begin to take a backseat in Afghanistan＇s future,one of the most pressing questions is what role the region can play in helping Afghanistan to become a prosperous and stable nation.Numerous efforts are already underway through multilateral and bilateral forums,yet the key to regional cooperation for Afghanistan＇ s future lies through closer interaction between Beijing and New Delhi.Drawing on a research project spanning a number of workshops in Beijing,New Delhi and Qatar and involving influential thinkers and experts from China,India,the UK and Afghanistan,this paper will try to map out specific ideas that policymakers in Beijing and New Delhi can explore as avenues of cooperation.Post-2014 Afghanistan will remain a major regional concern for at least the short to medium term.The earlier China and India can develop workable collaborative undertakings,the sooner they can forge a stable and prosperous neighbourhood.
文摘The regional hotspots of South Asia in 2015 may be looked at from two angles.In the first place,the reconstruction process in Afghanistan has run into serious difficulties,with several major transitions'uncompleted,'casting ambiguity on the future of the Kabul regime.In 2014,Afghanistan,together with the international community,tried hard to advance its political,economic and security reconstructions.Although some achievements have been made,the three transitions have not been completed,leaving'unfinished projects'for 2015.First,in security,despite the fact that the Afghanistan War,led by the U.S.and NATO,was over,the chaos that has ensued from this war is
文摘Since 2020,the Modi government has sought to implement the policy of industrial substitution for China as an important approach to economic autonomy and industrial rejuvenation.Based on the Modi government’s industrial policy practices,its substitution policy for Chinese industries comprises three parts.A favorable domestic political ecology,an encouraging geostrategic environment,and a relatively solid industrial foundation provide the Modi government with the conditions and confidence to implement this policy.Nevertheless,owing to the conservatism of India’s domestic political culture,expediency in helping and appeasing India by the US,reversal of economic globalization,and sustainability of China’s industrial policy to break new ground,Modi’s substitution policy for Chinese industries has found limited success.However,considering India’s substantial economic size and the strategic support of the US and other developed nations in the West,the Modi government’s substitution policy for Chinese industries can still disrupt China’s efforts to build and maintain a healthier production chain.
文摘Conflict between India and China at the Galwan Valley has brought their bilateral relations to the lowest point since the border war in 1962.Although this conflict appeared incidental,it in fact was the inevitable result of India's tough foreign policy featuring"high risk,high yield"pursued by the Modi administration toward China.The subsequent measures of India's tough diplomacy toward China have become more frequent,reflecting both a desire to seek revenge and a deep level of India's logic.Such logic considers not only the policy inertia of India's long-term pursuit of absolute security and dominance in the regional order.but also the intention of Modi's government to overtake China by taking advantages of India's favorable external strategic environment.The existing structural contradictions in China-India relations and the right-leaning tendencies in India's domestic political ecology have laid the groundwork for this conflict to occur and for the Modi administration to pursue a tough foreign policy toward China.This conflict has once again shown the rapid decay of the existing operational mechanism and architecture of thei bilateral relations,which can no longer smooth over the complex interactions between the two major emerging neighbors.As a result,the moment has arrived for China and India to restructure their relations,otherwise their relationship can hardly be continued.
文摘The current international order,especially regionally speaking,is chaotic,with the following four main features:First,the great game between the U.S.and China is the key driver behind contemporary changes to the international order.Both China and the U.S.are big powers with global influence:One is the biggest
文摘The reconstruction of Afghanistan has been gathering momentum since March 2009 when the U.S. President Barack Obama＇s administration first announced its Afghanistan-Pakistan especially true since July 1st, 2011, （AFPAC） Strategy.lThis has been when U.S. troops began first withdrawing from Afghanistan.
文摘Currently, since regional arrangements or multilateral arrangements between China and South Asia as a whole are still at an early stage, bilateral relations between China and South Asia are mainly country specific. In 2006, there
文摘India has upheld extremely rich practices of national security since its founding as a republic because of its unique geo-environmental features, historical legacies, and traditional cultures, which reflect a type of national security strategy that has distinct Indian characteristics. Generally, successive governments in India have followed the basic principles articulated in Kautilya’s Arthasastra and various security practices adopted during the British Raj. India’s national security strategies are based on an internal logic of geopolitical rivalry and changes in international scenarios, and they are strongly influenced by Hindu traditions and the “Sad-Dharma” purported by King Ashoka. The objective is to create an India-dominated security order in the South Asian subcontinent, which persistently builds its capacity and system as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean Rim. Moreover, India is vigorously expanding its network of influence in the Pacific region in an effort to become a world leading power that enjoys a high level of strategic autonomy.
文摘Doklam Standoff, a crisis of Sino-Indian bilateral relations, was a large-scale military deployment between China and India. The crisis reflects the newly forming distrust between the two countries that led to an outburst as a result of a series of conflicts over the past two years, which signifies that Sino-Indian relations are entering a new stage characterized by increasingly obvious structural conflict. On the surface, the Modi Administration designed the crisis to stop China from building border infrastructure, to pursue its own absolute security, to maintain South Asian order dominated by India, and to consolidate the basis of strategic cooperation among India, the United States and Japan. Ultimately, however, the British buffer zone theory, the Mandala theory, the Brahmin supremacy theory in traditional Indian culture and the US Monroe Doctrine have also shaped the mindset and behavioral patterns of the Modi Administration. Under the influence of seeking absolute security and its strategic culture, as well as the strong desire to be a great power, the assertive Modi Administration has obviously strengthened its precautionary measures and hostilities toward China. The relations between the two countries are becoming tense. In order to achieve the goal of ＂dragon and elephant dancing together＂, and to avoid the recurrence of crises like the Doklam Standoff, the two sides have to adhere to the two basic principles of viewing each other as opporttmities for development instead of threats to each other. The mindset of a zero-sum game should be abandoned, and efforts should be made to co-found mutual respect and win-win cooperation in areas of common interest.
文摘In terms of the Indian troops＇ crossing into the Chinese territory of Donglang and their faceoff with Chinese border guards, the Indian Government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made three ma- jor mistakes：
文摘I.The Main Features of the Current Asian Security Situation The strategic game between China and the United States becomes the most powerful driving force to change the Asian traditional security situation.The United States has tried its best to delay China’s rising pace or"to standardize"China’s rising path by using its huge military advantage and forward military deployment and strengthening its security network of alliance and friends,so as to maintain its dominant position
