In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitt...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.展开更多
Tourism is one of the major contributors to foreign exchange earnings to Zambia and world economy. Annual International tourist arrivals in Zambia from 1995 to 2014 are considered in this paper. In this study we evalu...Tourism is one of the major contributors to foreign exchange earnings to Zambia and world economy. Annual International tourist arrivals in Zambia from 1995 to 2014 are considered in this paper. In this study we evaluated the model performance of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters exponential smoothing (HWES). The error indicators: Mean percentage error (MPE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute scaled error (MASE), Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) showed that HWES is an appropriate model with reasonable forecast accuracy. The HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) showed smallest error than those of the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) models. Hence, the HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) can be used to model annual international tourist arrivals in Zambia. Further, forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual international tourist arrivals of about 42% by 2024. Accurate forecasts are key to new investors and Policymakers. The Zambian government should use such forecasts in formulating policies and making strategies that will promote the tourism industry.展开更多
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.
文摘Tourism is one of the major contributors to foreign exchange earnings to Zambia and world economy. Annual International tourist arrivals in Zambia from 1995 to 2014 are considered in this paper. In this study we evaluated the model performance of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters exponential smoothing (HWES). The error indicators: Mean percentage error (MPE), Mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute scaled error (MASE), Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) showed that HWES is an appropriate model with reasonable forecast accuracy. The HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) showed smallest error than those of the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) models. Hence, the HWES (α = 1, β = 0.1246865) can be used to model annual international tourist arrivals in Zambia. Further, forecasting results give a gradual increase in annual international tourist arrivals of about 42% by 2024. Accurate forecasts are key to new investors and Policymakers. The Zambian government should use such forecasts in formulating policies and making strategies that will promote the tourism industry.
