Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

A bounding surface visco-plasticity model considering generalized spacing ratio of soils

The non-unique critical state of soils with time-dependent behaviors is a significant issue in geotechnical engineering problems.However,previous bounding surface plasticity models cannot predict accurately the non-unique critical state of soils,because the distance between the compression line and critical state line charged by strain-rate effect is basically neglected.To fill this gap,a generalized spacing ratio of soils is defined in the elasto-viscoplastic framework,and a bounding surface visco-plasticity model is formulated and verified,which can consider the generalized spacing ratio.Specifically,the generalized spacing ratio of soils reflects the distance between the compression line and the critical state line of soils with time-dependent behaviors.Then,the generalized spacing ratio is introduced into an improved anisotropic bounding surface.A new expression of the visco-plastic multiplier is derived by solving the consistency equation of an anisotropic bounding surface.In the expression,a strain rate index is proposed to account for the strain-rate effect on visco-plastic strain increment,and a visco-plastic hardening modulus is derived to predict the visco-plastic response of soils in overconsolidation conditions.The model is then verified through constant strain rate tests and creep tests.Notably,it can capture the non-unique critical states of soils with time-dependent behaviors due to the generalized spacing ratio and the creep rupture of soils due to the visco-plastic multiplier that considers the stress ratio and visco-plastic strain rate.

A stability evaluation method for deep-seated toppling in the upper Lancang river,Southwestern China

Deep-seated toppling in the upper reaches of the Lancang River,southwest China involves deformations exceeding 100 m in depth.The slope deformation is initiated by river downcutting and evolves distinctive characteristics with a depth of river incision.In this study,we propose a system for evaluating the stability of deep-seated toppled slopes in different evolutionary stages.This system contains identification criteria for each evolutionary stage and provides the corresponding stability evaluation methods.Based on the mechanical and kinematic analysis of slope blocks,the specific stage of slope movement can be identified in the field through outcrop mapping,in situ tests,surface displacement monitoring,and adit and borehole explorations.The stability evaluation methods are established based on the limiting equilibrium theory and the strain compatibility between the undisturbed zone and the toppled zone.Finally,several sample slopes in different evolution stages have been investigated to verify the applicability and accuracy of the proposed stability evaluation system.The results indicate that intense tectonic activity and rapid river incision lead to a maximum principal stress ratio exceeding 10 near the slope surface,thus triggering widespread toppling deformations along the river valley.When considering the losses of joint cohesion during the further rotation process,the safety factor of the slope drops by 7%e28%.The self-stabilization of toppling deformation can be recognized by the layer symmetry configuration after the free rotation of the deflected layers.Intensely toppled rock blocks mainly suffer sliding failures beyond the layer symmetry condition.The factor of safety of the K73 rockslide decreased from 1.17 to 0.87 by considering the development of the potential sliding surface and the toesaturated zone.

Landslide susceptibility modeling based on ANFIS with teaching-learning-based optimization and Satin bowerbird optimizer

As threats of landslide hazards have become gradually more severe in recent decades,studies on landslide prevention and mitigation have attracted widespread attention in relevant domains.A hot research topic has been the ability to predict landslide susceptibility,which can be used to design schemes of land exploitation and urban development in mountainous areas.In this study,the teaching-learning-based optimization(TLBO)and satin bowerbird optimizer(SBO)algorithms were applied to optimize the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system(ANFIS)model for landslide susceptibility mapping.In the study area,152 landslides were identified and randomly divided into two groups as training(70%)and validation(30%)dataset.Additionally,a total of fifteen landslide influencing factors were selected.The relative importance and weights of various influencing factors were determined using the step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis(SWARA)method.Finally,the comprehensive performance of the two models was validated and compared using various indexes,such as the root mean square error(RMSE),processing time,convergence,and area under receiver operating characteristic curves(AUROC).The results demonstrated that the AUROC values of the ANFIS,ANFIS-TLBO and ANFIS-SBO models with the training data were 0.808,0.785 and 0.755,respectively.In terms of the validation dataset,the ANFISSBO model exhibited a higher AUROC value of 0.781,while the AUROC value of the ANFIS-TLBO and ANFIS models were 0.749 and 0.681,respectively.Moreover,the ANFIS-SBO model showed lower RMSE values for the validation dataset,indicating that the SBO algorithm had a better optimization capability.Meanwhile,the processing time and convergence of the ANFIS-SBO model were far superior to those of the ANFIS-TLBO model.Therefore,both the ensemble models proposed in this paper can generate adequate results,and the ANFIS-SBO model is recommended as the more suitable model for landslide susceptibility assessment in the study area considered due to its excellent accuracy and efficiency.

Scientific challenges of research on natural hazards and disaster risk

As a discipline,the science of natural hazards and disaster risk aims to explain the spatial-temporal pattern,process and mechanism,emergency response and risk mitigation of natural hazards,which requires a multidisci-plinary and interdisciplinary approach.With the support of Natural Science Finance of China(NSFC)and Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),in-depth research and systematic analysis on natural hazards and disaster risk were conducted.In this paper,the state of the art in research on natural hazards is summarized from seven aspects:formation process,mechanism and dynamic of natural hazards,disaster risk assessment,forecast,monitoring and early warning,disaster mitigation,emergency treatment and rescue,risk management and post-disaster re-construction.The trends within the natural hazards and disaster risk as a discipline were identified,along with existing shortcomings and significant gaps that need to be addressed.This paper highlighted:1)the scientific challenges including the frontier scientific issues and technological gaps on natural hazards and disaster risk dis-cipline from 2025 to 2035 in China,and 2)the proposal to develop a systemic and holistic natural hazards and disaster risk discipline.

ArcGIS-based evaluation of geo-hazards at Yaozhou County,Shaanxi,China

In conventional susceptibility evaluation of geo-hazards,there are some limits,such as unreasonable division of evaluated region,difficulty in quantifying evaluation indicators,time-consuming calculation.To address these problems,we try to employ the software ArcGIS to evaluate geo-hazards susceptibility.The study area of Yaozhou County is automatically divided into 3562 units.Based on the spatial overlay analysis function of ArcGIS,quantitative evaluation of geo-hazards susceptibility is implemented in the study area,and the geo-hazards susceptibility zoning is mapped.It is observed that the evaluation results match well with field investigations.

Gully erosion and expansion mechanisms in loess tablelands and the scientific basis of gully consolidation and tableland protection

Gully erosion is serious in the tableland area of the Loess Plateau due to high-intensity human activities and extreme rainfall, which cause serious soil loss and an increasing tableland shrinkage rate. Severe gully erosion has exerted a notable negative impact on local agriculture, human life and socioeconomic development. In recent decades, progress has been made in soil and water conservation with the goal of reducing soil erosion and protecting loess tableland, but basic research on gully consolidation and tableland protection(GCTP) is lacking, especially regarding the mechanisms of gully erosion and expansion in loess tableland under the interactive impacts of hydrodynamics and human activities. In addition, there is a lack of a deep understanding of the underlying mechanisms of soil-water disasters and controlling factors of unreasonable GCTP projects.Currently, the problems of headcut erosion and tableland fragmentation remain serious. Based on this situation, the Dongzhi tableland, the largest tableland on the Loess Plateau, was adopted as an example, and we studied gully erosion and expansion mechanisms in the loess tableland and the scientific basis of GCTP projects. We obtained a series of novel findings, including the following:(1) vertical joints are widely developed in loess and impose a controlling effect on tableland edge erosion;(2) rapid urbanization and road network expansion intensify headcut erosion and are the main reasons for severe erosion and tableland shrinkage in the Dongzhi tableland;and(3) unreasonable drainage of surface runoff and a rise in the groundwater level are the key factors affecting GCTP project stability. Moreover, the mechanisms and modes of erosion disasters in the project driven by these two factors were explained. The systematic remediation idea of retention, storage, drainage and consolidation for the GCTP project was introduced, and the core is water control, which emphasizes the combination of soil and water conservation and geohazard prevention measures. As a systematic remediation project, GCTP in loess tableland requires multidisciplinary and multimethod approaches and multiple measures involving ecology, soil and water conservation, geology and engineering to ensure project feasibility and sustainability.

A Comprehensive Method for the Risk Assessment of Ground Fissures:Case Study of the Eastern Weihe Basin

Ground fissures are influenced by the coupling of geological factors and human activi-ties.They threaten the safety of infrastructure and restrict town planning in many areas in China.One of the area most severely affected by ground fissures is the Weihe Basin in North China,which has the most extensive distribution of ground fissures and all the elements that control their occurrence,pro-viding an ideal study area for the study of ground fissures.In this study,we took the eastern Weihe Ba-sin as the study area and determined the distribution and hazard characteristics of ground fissures via field investigation.Based on the analytic hierarchy process,we propose a multi-level,comprehensive method for evaluating the hazards of ground fissures.This method considers the geological back-ground,development status,and triggering factors of ground fissures,including all nine currently known assessment indices of ground fissures.We used judgment matrices to rank the constructed ground fissure assessment index system at the single and total levels and quantified the nine assessment indices of ground fissures according to the field survey data.Finally,we plotted the ground fissure risk zoning map and evaluated the ground fissure risk at the study area.Our findings indicated that the proposed method could facilitate ground fissure hazard assessment and prediction and provide support for hazard prevention and urban/rural planning.

Development of a New in-situ Interface Shear Box Test Apparatus and Its Applications

INTRODUCTION Interfaces are often seen in various geotechnical materials,such as soil-bedrock interfaces(Yang et al.,2020;Gabet et al.,2006),soil-structure interfaces(Ilori et al.,2017;di Donna et al.,2016),and interfaces between soils with different properties(Zhu et al.,2022).

地质学科未来5~10年发展战略:趋势与对策

当代地球科学的内涵和外延已经拓展到涵盖整个固体地球内部及外部层圈形成演化及与资源能源富集、生态环境变迁、地球宜居性和社会可持续发展相关的地球系统科学问题.随着人类社会经济高速发展,与地球相关的资源能源、气候环境、地质灾害等问题日益突出.为了适应新时代地球科学发展形势,在地球系统科学理论框架下,准确分析我国地球科学未来5~10年的发展趋势、明确战略目标和优先发展领域,不仅能够大力促进和强化我国地球科学的发展、赶超世界领先水平、早日实现从地质大国到地质强国的转变,而且对于保障国家矿产能源安全、助推国家经济建设和人类社会可持续发展具有重大意义.

Geological and surfacial processes and major disaster effects in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB) is characterized by active geological and tectonic processes, rapid geomorphological evolution, and distinct climatic diversity. Correspondingly, major disasters in the YRB are characterized by varied types,extensive distributions, and sudden occurrences. In addition, major disasters in the YRB usually evolve into disaster chains that cause severe consequences. Therefore, major disasters in the YRB destroy ecologies and environments and influence geological and ecological safety in the basin. This paper systematically reviews research on geological and surface processes, major disaster effects, and risk mitigation in the YRB, discusses the trends and challenges of relevant research, analyzes the key scientific problems that need to be solved, and suggests prospects for future research based on the earth system science concept. Themes of research that should be focused on include geological, surface and climatic processes in the YRB and their interlinking disaster gestation mechanisms;formation mechanisms and disaster chain evolutions of giant landslides in the upper reach of the YRB;mechanisms and disaster chain effects of loess water-soil disasters in the middle reach of the YRB;occurrence patterns and amplifying effects of giant flood chains in the lower reach of the YRB;and risk mitigations of major disasters in the YRB. Key scientific problems that need to be solved are as follows: how to reveal the geological, surface and climatic processes that are coupled and interlinked with gestation mechanisms of major disasters;how to clarify the mutual feedback effects between major disasters and ecology;and how to develop a human-environmental harmony-based integrated risk mitigation system for major disasters. Prospects for future studies that follow the earth system science concept include the following: highlighting interdisciplinary research to reveal the interlinked disaster gestation mechanisms of the geology, surface and climate in the YRB in the past, present, and future;forming theories to clarify the regional patterns, dynamic mechanisms, and mutual-feedback effects between disaster chains and ecology in the YRB on land and in rivers in the region;solving technological bottlenecks to develop assessment models and mitigation theories for integrated risks in the YRB by following the human-environment harmony concept;and finally, establishing a demonstratable application pattern characterized by "whole-basin coverage" and "zonal controls", thereby guaranteeing ecological and geological safety in the basin and providing scientific support for ecological conservation and high-quality development of the YRB.

Geological Factors for the Formation of Xi＇an Ground Fractures

Xi＇an ground fractures are the most typical ground fractures in China. Fourteen fractures have nearly divided the historical city into several distinct sections. These fractures are parallel and dis- tributed in NEE direction at the same interval, with all features exhibiting a down dropping southerly block which extends to connect with the underlying fault. The activities of fractures are primarily ex- pressed as normal faults. The faulted strata are well defined and dislocation displacement increases with depth. Thus, fractures have the characteristics of syn-sedimentary faults, which constitute the hanging wall of the Lintong-Chang＇an fault branch system. Crustal thinning caused by the uplifting of upper man- tle provides a power source for extension and stretching along the fracture surface of the upper crust, which results in a series of extensional faults and the suitable conditions for forming massive ground frac- tures. The movement of tectonic blocks influences the normal dip-slipping tension of Lintong-Chang＇an fault branches, and produces a series of secondary tectonic fractures adjacent to surface, which constitute the prototype of ground fractures. The recent regional tensile stress produced by modern mainland de- formation, also profoundly influences the current activity of Xi＇an ground fractures.

Initiation Mechanism of Loess Mudflows by Flume Experiments

The structure of loess is loose,and the shear strength of loess drops sharply after contact with water.Therefore,loess mudflows have become a common geological disaster on the Chinese Loess Plateau.In order to study the initiation mode and mechanism of loess mudflows,in this study,seven sets of flume experiments were designed by controlling the slope angle and rainfall intensity.The results show that(1)when the slope angle is between 10°and 20°,there are two initiation mechanisms of loess mudflows:mudflow(large scale)and retrogressive toe sliding,and mudflow(small-scale)and retrogressive toe sliding.(2)The main method by which water infiltrates into the soil accumulation is mainly vertical infiltration,which is not affected by the slope angle and the seepage direction of the accumulation soil.(3)The liquefaction of loess is the root cause of loess mudflows.Water infiltrates into the area with an uneven density and a large amount of water accumulates in this area.Thus,the water content of the loess increases and the pore water pressure increases quickly and cannot dissipate in time,so the loess liquefies and the liquefacted area continues to spread and become larger.Thus,loess mudflows(large scale)occur.The increase in pore water pressure was captured in the seven sets of experiments.However,the order of the rising positions in the accumulation were different.This requires us to carry out tracking of the particle displacement inside the soil and the spatial changes in the internal structure of the soil in future research.

Identification of landslide spatial distribution and susceptibility assessment in relation to topography in the Xi＇an Region, Shaanxi Province, China

Landslides are among the most serious of geohazards in the Xi＇an Region, Shaanxi, China, and are responsible for extensive human and property loss. In order to understand the distribution of landslides and assess their associated hazards in this region, we used a combination of frequency analysis, logistic analysis, and Geographic Information System （GIS） analysis, with consideration of the spatial distribution of landslides. Using the GIS approach, the five key factors of surface topography, including slope gradient, topographic wetness index （TWI）, height difference, profile curvature and slope aspect, were considered. First, the distribution and frequency of landslides were considered in relation to all of the five factors in each of three sub-regions susceptible to landslides （Qin Mountain, Li Mountain, and Loess Tableland）. Secondly, each factor＇s influence was deter- mined by a logistic regression method, and the relative importance of each of these independent variables was evaluated. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map was generated using GIS tools. Locations that had recorded landslides were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map and the accuracy obtained was above 84%. The validation proved that there is sufficient agreement between the susceptibility map and existing records of landslide occurrences. The logistic regression model produced acceptable results （the areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristics （ROC） curve were 0.865, 0.841, and 0.924 in the Qin Mountain, Li Mountain and Loess Tableland）. We are confident that the results of this study can be useful in preliminary planning for land use, particularly for construction work in high-risk areas.

Formation Mechanism of Ground Fissures Originated from the Hanging Wall of Normal Fault:A Case in Fen-Wei Basin,China

This paper takes Fen-Wei Basin(FWB)as a case to study the ground fissures controlled by normal fault.Based on the field investigation,geophysical exploration,drilling,GNSS data and numerical calculation,the characteristics and mechanism of ground fissures originated from the hanging wall of normal faults are revealed.The results show that the distribution of ground fissures in the hanging wall and heading wall of the active faults is not uniform.Ground fissures are mostly distributed in the hanging wall of active faults and show a linear distribution on the surface,their strike is consistent with the fault,mainly characterized by vertical offset and horizontal tension.Ground fissures destroy the farmland and building foundation through which they pass and cause the rupture or displacement.In profile section,the ground fissure shows the characteristics of normal faults and dislocates the strata,and is connected with the underlying faults.Numerical analysis shows that the vertical displacement of normal fault activity in hanging wall is much larger than that in heading wall,which is the reason that tectonic ground fissures mainly originate from hanging wall.The range of dangerous area of ground fissures is controlled by the depth of fault,the strength of the ground fissures disaster is mainly controlled by the activity of fault.The formation of the ground fissures originated from the hanging wall of the fault experienced three stages:the main fault activity stage,the secondary fault activity stage and the fissure formation stage.

Experimental study of two saturated natural soils and their saturated remoulded soils under three consolidated undrained stress paths

In this paper,an experimental investigation is conducted to study the mechanical behavior of saturated natural loess,saturated natural filling in ground fissure and their corresponding saturated remoulded soils under three consolidated undrained triaxial stress tests,namely,conventional triaxial compression test(CTC),triaxial compression test(TC)and reduced triaxial compression test(RTC).The test results show that stress-strain relation,i.e.strain-softening or strain-hardening,is remarkably influenced by the structure,void ratio,stress path and confining pressure.Natural structure,high void ratio,TC stress path,RTC stress path and low confining pressures are favorable factors leading to strain-softening.Excess pore pressure during shearing is significantly affected by stress path.The tested soils are different from loose sand on character of strain-softening and are different from common clay on excess pore water pressure behavior.The critical states in p′-q space in CTC,TC and RTC tests almost lie on one line,which indicates that the critical state is independent of the above stress paths.As for remoulded loess or remoulded filling,the critical state line(CSL)and isotropic consolidation line(ICL)in e-log p′space are almost straight,while for natural loess or natural filling,in e-log p′space there is a turning point on the CSL,which is similar to the ICL.