The Effect of Blood Lipid Profiles on Chronic Kidney Disease in a Prospective Cohort:Based on a Regression Discontinuity Design

Objective Previous studies on the association between lipid profiles and chronic kidney disease(CKD)have yielded inconsistent results and no defined thresholds for blood lipids.Methods A prospective cohort study including 32,351 subjects who completed baseline and follow-up surveys over 5 years was conducted.Restricted cubic splines and Cox models were used to examine the association between the lipid profiles and CKD.A regression discontinuity design was used to determine the cutoff value of lipid profiles that was significantly associated with increased the risk of CKD.Results Over a median follow-up time of 2.2(0.5,4.2)years,648(2.00%)subjects developed CKD.The lipid profiles that were significantly and linearly related to CKD included total cholesterol(TC),triglycerides(TG),high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C),TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C,whereas lowdensity lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C)and LDL-C/HDL-C were nonlinearly correlated with CKD.TC,TG,TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C showed an upward jump at the cutoff value,increasing the risk of CKD by 0.90%,1.50%,2.30%,and 1.60%,respectively,whereas HDL-C showed a downward jump at the cutoff value,reducing this risk by 1.0%.Female and participants with dyslipidemia had a higher risk of CKD,while the cutoff values for the different characteristics of the population were different.Conclusion There was a significant association between lipid profiles and CKD in a prospective cohort from Northwest China,while TG,TC/HDL-C,and TG/HDL-C showed a stronger risk association.The specific cutoff values of lipid profiles may provide a clinical reference for screening or diagnosing CKD risk.

Predictive value of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio for chronic kidney disease among adult male and female in Northwest China

Background: Studies have found that the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) was associated with the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relationship in different genders was rarely discussed. The aim of this study was to explore this relationship and assess its predictive power for both males and females.Methods: Based on a prospective cohort platform in northwest China, 32,351 participants without CKD were collected in the baseline and followed up for approximately 5 years. Cox proportional hazard model and restricted cubic spline regression analysis were performed to investigate the association between TC, HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and CKD in adult female and male. The clinical application value of the indicators in predicting CKD was evaluated by the receiver operator characteristic curve.Results: During a mean follow-up of 2.2 years, 484 males and 164 females developed CKD. After adjusted for relevant confounders, for every one standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C and TC/HDL-C, the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for CKD were 1.17 (1.05-1.31), 0.84 (0.71-0.99), and 1.15 (1.06-1.25) for males, 0.94 (0.78-1.13), 0.58 (0.35-0.95), and 1.19 (1.01-1.40) for females, respectively. The results also showed that TC, HDL-C, and TC/HDL-C were associated with CKD in a linear dose-response relationship. The TC/HDL-C had the largest area under the curve (AUC) compared to TC and HDL-C, and the AUC among the females was larger than that among males.Conclusions: The TC/HDL-C was significantly associated with CKD in adult males and females and has better clinical value in predicting CKD than TC and HDL-C, especially in females.