Price Transmission in China's Swine Industry with an Application of MCM

The paper studies the relationship, adjustment ability, path, efficiency and intensity of price transmission in the swine industry chain in China, which consists of the prices of corn, compound feed for fattening pig, piglet, pig and pork. Monthly prices covering a period of 18 yr （1994-2011） are analyzed using a Market-Chain Cooperated Model （MCM）. The empirical results show that there exists a stable long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic relationship in the price system. First, the adjustment speed of each price series is very slow and the transmission path is top-down and one-way significantly. Second, the price from upstream to downstream lags about 2 mort, while there is no lag in price transmission from midstream to downstream. Third, in terms of price transmission intensity, the price of pig impacted greatly on pork price, not only in the current period but also through the whole period. Besides, the price of corn has the largest lagged effects on pork price. According to the above empirical results, we suggest that government should strengthen monitoring and early warning of the swine industry chain, especially the upstream and midstream, attach great importance to the timely adjustment of feed prices and perfect the measures of price subsidy.

美国营养项目对中国大豆消费的启示

目的:当前中国大豆产业支持主要集中在生产端,消费端缺乏项目支持,而当前国内大豆产业问题的解决,既要靠提升国内大豆产能,更重要的是优化大豆消费结构,提升国产大豆消费需求。方法:通过研究美国大豆产业支持政策,从政策目标、支出情况、执行情况、执行效果等不同角度揭示了作为美国农业支持支柱项目—营养项目在保障国民营养供应、饥饿改善和健康提升等方面的显著成效,同时对美国经济和工人就业也起到了积极的作用。结果:与美国营养项目支持相比,以豆制品消费为桥梁的国产大豆消费长效稳定机制还未建立,大豆消费支持项目可为低收入、儿童、学生等特殊人群营养健康提供保障,对于当前提升大豆优质农产品消费、促进大豆加工业发展、帮助农民增收、实现大豆消费和生产双赢具有积极作用。结论:建议通过尽快建立保障特殊人群豆制品需求的长短期机制,通过提升国产大豆消费,促进国内大豆产业链的健康发展。

中国大豆生产现状与前景展望

通过对1949年至今全国大豆(Glycine max L.)历史数据的整理,详细分析了各地区大豆产量、播种面积和单产变动规律、分布特征和波动周期,探讨了影响中国大豆生产的重要因素,建立了中国大豆单产预测模型(指数拟合曲线、线性拟合曲线和多项式拟合曲线),对未来(2020—2035年)中国大豆产量进行展望。研究发现,中华人民共和国成立以来中国大豆产量的增加主要来自单产增长;与其他粮食品种相比,中国大豆生产表现出生产地区相对集中、产量波动频率高、波动周期短和波动幅度大的特点;预计2030年中国大豆产量将达0.25亿t,到2035年将增加至0.27亿t,低于美国、巴西等国家的产量水平,但远高于加拿大、澳大利亚以及印度等国家。

上海水产业发展状况与供需预测研究

上海水产业在国内处于领先地位,不仅是我国水产品重要生产与集散地,也是全国水产品年消费量最大的城市。准确把握上海水产业发展态势,科学研判水产品供需趋势,对国际大都市上海水产业持续健康发展具有重要意义,可为全国水产品"稳供保价"相关政策措施实施提供决策支持。本研究对上海市水产品产业结构、居民水产品消费水平、水产品价格走向以及进出口贸易现状进行了深入分析,采用中国农产品监测预警系统(CAMES)中的上海农业展望模型,对上海水产品供需走势进行了预测,并以此为基础提出绿色发展、推进精深加工、促进产业化发展等相关对策建议,为大城市水产品合理平衡供需提供参考。

2020年前三季度我国禽蛋市场形势及后市展望

2020年上半年,我国在产蛋鸡存栏量处于历史新高位,蛋鸡产能过剩明显,鸡蛋市场供应较为充足,而鸡蛋消费受新冠肺炎疫情影响较大,学校团体性消费和社会餐饮业消费下降明显,由于市场供给大于需求,鸡蛋价格连续下跌,蛋鸡养殖效益下降,5月份开始出现亏损,至6月份创下2018年以来新低。进入三季度以来,蛋鸡产能过剩局面有所缓解,消费需求逐渐恢复,鸡蛋价格连续3个月回升,蛋鸡养殖效益有所好转。预计后期蛋鸡存栏相对稳定,鸡蛋价格将处于震荡走势。为促进蛋鸡产业高质量发展,建议多举措提升鸡蛋产品附加值,加强鸡蛋品牌建设,构建禽蛋全产业链监测预警体系。

China agricultural outlook for 2015–2024 based on China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System(CAMES)

The primary goal of Chinese agricultural development is to guarantee national food security and supply of major agricultural products. Hence, the scientiifc work on agricultural monitoring and early warning as wel as agricultural outlook must be strengthened. In this study, we develop the China Agricultural Monitoring and Early-warning System (CAMES) on the basis of a comparative study of domestic and international agricultural outlook models. The system is a dynamic and multi-market partial equilibrium model that integrates biological mechanisms with economic mechanisms. This system, which includes 11 categories of 953 kinds of agricultural products, could dynamical y project agricultural market supply and demand, assess food security, and conduct scenario analysis at different spatial levels, time scale levels, and macro-micro levels. Based on the CAMES, the production, consumption, and trade of the major agricultural products in China over the next decade are projected. The fol owing conclusions are drawn:i) The production of major agricultural products wil continue to grow steadily, mainly because of the increase in yield. i ) The growth of agricultural consumption wil be slightly higher than that of agricultural production. Meanwhile, a high self-sufifciency rate is expected for cereals such as rice, wheat, and maize, with the rate being stable at around 97%. i i) Agricultural trade wil continue to thrive. The growth of soybean and milk im-ports wil slow down, but the growth of traditional agricultural exports such as vegetables and fruits is expected to continue.

Using Quantile Regression Approach to Analyze Price Movements of Agricultural Products in China

This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.

Prediction Model of Weekly Retail Price for Eggs Based on Chaotic Neural Network

This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.

农业技术进步视角下的中国玉米生产增长路径选择——基于2004~2016年的省际面板数据

通过运用E-S模型与C-D生产函数,利用2004~2016年我国玉米三大优势区13个省份的面板数据,从年际变化、发展阶段和区域差异等3个层面,对我国玉米生产的主导技术进步模式进行分析与研判。结果表明,机械投入对劳动投入的替代作用日渐增强,生物化学投入对玉米生产的促进作用相对有限。现阶段我国玉米生产是以机械型技术进步为主。三大玉米优势区之间的技术进步模式存在显著差异,北方春玉米区和黄淮海夏玉米区的机械投入弹性系数要明显高于西南玉米区,北方春玉米区的生物化学投入弹性系数要相对低于黄淮海夏玉米区和西南玉米区。