我国农产品国际贸易效率评价及影响因素研究——基于超效率SBM-Tobit模型

为了研究我国农产品国际贸易效率和影响农产品国际贸易效率的因素,基于2000—2020年农产品国际贸易投入产出数据,利用非径向角度Super-SBM模型对我国农产品国际贸易效率进行测算,并进一步运用Tobit一般模型分析影响效率的主要因素。研究发现:我国农产品国际贸易效率总体良好,效率走势逐渐上涨且平稳,提升空间较大;农产品国际贸易综合效率受规模效率的影响大;人民币对美元汇率(美元=100)、主要农作物产品产量、劳动力均与我国农产品国际贸易效率呈现显著负相关,而农产品出口金额与我国农产品国际贸易效率呈现显著正相关。

2000—2014年喀喇昆仑山音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化

喀喇昆仑山区冰川由于存在正物质平衡或跃动、前进现象,被称之为“喀喇昆仑异常”,不过该地区冰川变化差异显著,尤其是大型表碛覆盖冰川,呈现与其他类型冰川明显的差异性响应,为理解喀喇昆仑冰川异常的机理,冰川尺度的详细变化研究十分必要。音苏盖提冰川位于喀喇昆仑山乔戈里峰北坡,是中国面积最大的冰川,是典型的大型表碛覆盖冰川。通过应用TanDEM-X/TerraSAR-X(2014年2月)与SRTM-X DEM(2000年2月)的差分干涉测量方法计算音苏盖提冰川表面高程变化,并结合冰川表面流速对冰川表面高程变化和跃动进行分析和讨论。结果表明:2000—2014年音苏盖提冰川表面高程平均下降了1.68±0.94 m,即冰川整体厚度在减薄,年变化率为 -0.12±0.07 m·a-1。冰川表面高程变化分布不均,其中南分支(S)冰流冰川整体减薄较为显著,冰川南分支冰流运动速度较快,前进/跃动的末端占据了冰川的主干,阻滞原主干冰川物质的向下运移(跃动),导致原主干冰舌表面高程上升;冰川厚度减薄随着海拔升高先下降后保持稳定,同时呈现一定的波动性;低海拔表碛区域消融大于裸冰区,可能存在较薄表碛,因热传导高、覆盖大量冰面湖塘和冰崖存在,加速了冰川消融;在坡度小于30°的区域,冰川厚度减薄随着坡度的减小而加剧;坡向朝南冰川厚度略微增加(0.01 m),西南坡向冰川厚度略微减薄(-0.03 m),其他坡向冰川厚度减薄明显。近14 a来,表碛覆盖的音苏盖提冰川表面高程整体下降表明物质处于亏损状态,冰川跃动导致局部冰川表面高程的增加。

冰川冰储量计算方法及发展趋势

冰川冰储量不仅是冰川的重要属性,而且是核算冰川水资源及预测冰川变化的基础数据,因此准确计算冰川冰储量及其变化具有重要的理论与现实意义。目前冰川储量估算的主要方法有经验公式法、冰厚模型估算法、探地雷达法;冰川储量相对变化计算方法有实地测量法和遥感监测法。通过系统分析和讨论各计算方法的原理、现状及存在的问题,以期为冰川储量估算提供方法参考。研究表明:对于冰川冰储量计算而言,经验公式法适用于区域性或全球性的冰川储量估算;模型估算法适用于个体或小范围冰川储量估算;探地雷达法适用于人类易到达区域冰川储量的估算。对于冰川冰储量相对变化计算,实地测量法适用于对精度要求高且满足实地测量条件的单条或中小型冰川,遥感监测法适用于全球性冰储量变化估算,但需改进算法和提高数据空间分辨率。目前,随着无人机技术的逐步应用,以及冰川流速等理论模型的提出,为冰川冰储量估算方法的发展提供了新契机。

虚拟现实技术在“药学服务”人才培养实训中的应用研究

该文介绍了虚拟仿真技术及其在"药学服务"方向人才培养中的应用,从场景的搭建到模型的建立及学习模式的设计详细介绍了仿真系统的研制过程,对现代信息技术在教学中的作用进行了深入探讨。

一株分离自红树林沙雷氏菌的鉴定及杀虫活性测定

【目的】为开发用于害虫生物防治的细菌杀虫剂,对分离自红树林的一株沙雷氏菌进行鉴定并初步测试其杀虫活性。【方法】采用形态特征比较、细菌理化特性测定和基于16S rDNA序列构建系统发育树对从湛江红树林根际分离的菌株ZJ9进行综合鉴定,采用喂毒法和注射法进行杀虫活性测定。【结果】该菌为黏质沙雷氏菌Serratia marcescens,对草地贪夜蛾3龄幼虫7d校正死亡率为80.21%,且与苏云金芽孢杆菌和隐地杆菌无显著差异,菌体及菌液对大蜡螟老熟幼虫血腔注射24 h死亡率均达100%。【结论】菌株ZJ9为黏质沙雷氏菌,对草地贪夜蛾具有很好杀虫活性,可用作害虫的生物防治资源。

神术散治疗新型冠状病毒肺炎的分子机制研究

目的:运用网络药理学研究方法探讨神术散治疗新型冠状病毒肺炎的作用机制。方法:通过中药系统药理学数据库(TCMSP)对神术散所包含的中药进行可能的活性成分和靶点预测,通过Cytoscape 3.7.2建立药物-成分-靶点作用网络,并使用STRING网站进行靶点蛋白互作分析、运用Cytoscape 3.7.2进行可视化;利用DAVID数据库进行基因本体(GO)分析和京都基因与基因组百科全书(KEGG)通路富集分析。结果:筛选出36个神术散的有效成分和125个预测靶点。富集分析共得到生物学进程23个,细胞学组分8个,分子功能9个,11条KEGG通路。结果显示神术散作用于新型冠状病毒肺炎的机制中,其主要为癌症相关通路、PI3K-Akt信号通路、钙离子信号通路、TNF信号通路和HIF-1信号通路。结论:神术散治疗新型冠状病毒肺炎可能存在多通路、多靶点,这为进一步深入揭示其作用机制提供了参考,也为新型冠状病毒肺炎的治疗提供了生物信息学基础。

Glacier change in the Tanggula Mountains, Tibetan Plateau,in 1969-2015

To improve our knowledge of glacier change in the Tanggula Mountains located in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau,we delineated outlines of the glaciers in 1991 and 2015 using Landsat TM/OLI images and compared them with the reported glacier data in the First Chinese Glacier Inventory in 1969 and the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory in 2007.These comparisons showed that the glacier area and ice volume decreased by 524.8 km2 and 37 km3,respectively.The majority of the glacier area loss was concentrated in the area class of 1-5 km2,between 5300 m and 5500 m in elevation,on north and east facing slopes and in the Dam Qu River basin.These glacier changes exhibited spatial and temporal differences.The glacier retreat rate gradually increased from 1969 to 2015,and the rate in the east was higher than that in the west.From 1969 to 2015,the warming rate in the Tanggula Mountains was 0.38°C/10a,while the annual precipitation only increased by 0.4%.The slight increase in the amount of precipitation made a limited contribution to glacier change,while the change in temperature led to noticeable shrinkage of the glaciers.Contrary to the retreat or stagnation of most glaciers in the study area,there were 10 glaciers that experienced clear advance in 1986-2015 with noticeable increases in both area and length.Whether or not these 10 glaciers are surge glaciers requires further study.

Glacier changes since the early 1960s, eastern Pamir, China

Glaciers in the eastern Pamir are important for water resources and the social and economic development of the region.In the last 50 years,these glaciers have shrunk and lost ice mass due to climate change.In order to understand recent glacier dynamics in the region,a new inventory was compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in2009,free of clouds and with minimal snow cover on the glacierized mountains.The first glacier inventory of the area was also updated by digitizing glacier outlines from topographical maps that had been modified and verified using aerial photographs.Total glacier area decreased by 10.8%±1.1%,mainly attributed to an increase in air temperature,although precipitation,glacier size and topographic features also combined to affect the general shrinkage of the glaciers.The 19.3–21.4 km^3 estimated glacier mass loss has contributed to an increase in river runoff and water resources.

Mass Loss from Glaciers in the Chinese Altai Mountains between 1959 and 2008 Revealed Based on Historical Maps, SRTM, and ASTER Images

Mass loss of glaciers in the Chinese Altai was detected using geodetic methods based on topographical maps(1959), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM) Digital Elevation Model(DEM)(2000), and the Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer(ASTER) stereo images(2008). The results indicate that a continued and accelerating shrinkage has occurred in the Chinese Altai Mountains during the last 50 years, with mass deficits of 0.43 ± 0.02 and0.54 ± 0.13 m a-1 water equivalent(w.e.) during the periods 1959-1999 and 1999-2008, respectively.Overall, the Chinese Altai Mountains have lost 7.06 ±0.44 km3 in ice volume(equivalent to-0.43 ± 0.03 m a-1 w.e.) from 1959-2008. The spatial heterogeneity in mass loss was potentially affected by comprehensive changes in temperature and precipitation, and had a substantial correlation withglacier size and topographic settings. Comparison shows that in the Chinese Altai Mountains glaciers have experienced a more rapid mass loss than those in the Tianshan and northwestern Tibetan Plateau(TP), and the mass balance of glaciers was slightly less negative relative to those in the Russian Altai, Himalaya, and southern TP.

Glacier Changes during the Past 40 Years in the West Kunlun Shan

Recent studies on glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan, northwest Tibetan Plateau, have shown that they may be stable or retreating slightly. Here, we assess changes in the mass of the glaciers in the West Kunlun Shan(WKS) in an attempt to understand the processes that control their behavior. Glaciers over the recent 40 years(1970-2010) have shrunk 3.4±3.1%in area, based on a comparison between two Chinese glacier inventories. Variations of surface elevations, derived from ICESat-GLAS(Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) elevation products(GLA14 data) using the robust linear-fit method, indicate that the glaciers have been gaining mass at a rate of 0.23±0.24 m w.e./a since 2003. The annual mass budget for the whole WKS range from 2003 to 2009 is estimated to be 0.71±0.62 Gt/a. This gain trend is confirmed by MOD10A1 albedo for the WKS region which shows a descent of the mean snowline altitude from 2003 to 2009.

Glacier change in the western Nyainqentanglha Range,Tibetan Plateau using historical maps and Landsat imagery:1970-2014

Glaciers in the western Nyainqentanglha Range are an important source of water for social and economic development. Changes in their area were derived from two Chinese glacier inventories; one from the 197o 1：5o,ooo scale Chinese Topographic Maps series and the other from Landsat TM/ETM＋ images acquired in 2009. Analyses also included boundaries from 2000 and 2014 Landsat TM/ETM＋ images. A continuing and accelerating shrinkage of glaciers occurred here from 1970 to 2014, with glacier area decreasing by 244.38±29.48 km^2 （27.4%±3.3%） or 0.62%±0.08% a^-1. While this is consistent with a changing climate, local topographic parameters, such as altitude, slope, aspect and debris cover, are also important influences. Recession is manifested by a rise in the elevation of the glacier terminus. The shrinkage of glaciers with NE, N and NW orientations exceeded that of other aspects, and glaciers with SE and S orientations experienced less shrinkage. Changes in the average positive difference of glaciation （PDG） show that the western Nyainqentanglha Range has unfavorable conditions for glacier maintenance which is being exacerbated by a warming climate since 1970.

Vulnerability of mountain glaciers in China to climate change

Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to improve our understanding of glacial vulnerability to climate change to establish adaptation strategies. A glacial numerical model is developed using spatial principle component analysis （SPCA） supported by remote sensing （RS） and geographical information system （GIS） technologies. The model contains nine factors--slope, aspect, hillshade, elevation a.s.l., air temperature, precipitation, glacial area change percentage, glacial type and glacial area, describing topography, climate, and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale, and in the 2030s and 2050s based on projections of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario and of glacier change in the 21st century. Glacial vulnerability is graded into five levels： potential, light, medial, heavy, and very heavy, using natural breaks classification （NBC）. The spatial distribution of glacial vulnerability and its temporal changes in the 21st century for the RCP6.0 scenario are analyzed, and the factors influencing vulnerability are discussed. Results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and 41.2% of glacial areas fall into the levels of heavy and very heavy vulnerability in the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and the high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability are projected to decline in the 2030s and 2050s, but a declining trend is still high in some regions. In addition to topographical factors, variation in precipitation in the 2030s and 2050s is found to be crucial.

梅里雪山地区气温和降水的时空分异及海拔效应

梅里雪山地区是中国地形起伏最大的地区之一,其气候环境复杂多变、空间分异特征显著,对区域气温和降水的系统分析有助于揭示区域内冰川变化的原因和水文循环过程。站点观测的缺乏和再分析资料的低空间分辨率是精细刻画该地区气象条件的主要制约因素。研究中首先基于有限站点观测,采用尺度因子法和月尺度的回归校正对ERA5-Land产品进行校准;然后,考虑气温和降水的海拔效应,采用Anusplin插值的方式对校准后的结果进行统计降尺度。最终获得了梅里雪山地区近30年(1990—2020年)1 km空间分辨率的气温、降水数据,并以此分析了这一地区降水、气温的时空异质性及其在不同海拔梯度上的表现特征。结果表明,区域气温以0.15℃/(10 a)的速率呈显著上升趋势,且各季节升温的幅度及分布范围各异;降水则以-41.19 mm/(10 a)的速率呈显著下降趋势,整个区域呈“变暖变干”的倾向。区域增温具有明显的海拔依赖性,海拔低于4000 m和>5000 m时,增温不随海拔变化而变化,当海拔处于4000~5000 m时,增温幅度随海拔升高而增加。区域降水也具有显著的海拔梯度效应,当海拔<5000 m时,西坡降水随海拔的升高而减少,当超过该海拔后降水随海拔升高而增加;东坡降水始终随海拔升高而增加。梅里雪山气候变化的时空分异特征是大气环流背景和复杂地理环境共同作用的结果。区域持续的变暖及降水的减少可能会进一步加重该区冰川水资源的流失。

Regimes of Runoff Components on the Debris-covered Koxkar Glacier in Western China

By using a degree-day based distributed hydrological model, regimes of glacial runoff from the Koxkar glacier during 2007-2011 are simulated, and variations and characteristics of major hydrological components are discussed. The results show that the meltwater runoff contributes 67.4%, of the proglacial discharge, out of which snowmelt, clean ice melting, buried-ice ablation and ice-cliff backwasting account for 22.4%, 21.9%, 17.9% and 5.3% of the total melt runoff, respectively. Rainfall runoff is significant in mid-latitude glacierized mountain areas like Tianshan and Karakorum. In the Koxkar glacier catchment, about 11.5% of stream water is initiated from liquid precipitation. Spatial distributions for each glacial runoff component reveal the importance of climatic gradients, local topography and morphology on glacial runoff generation, and temporal variations of these components is closely related to the annual cycle of catchment meteorology and glacier storage. Four stages are recognized in the seasonal variations of glacier storage, reflecting changes in meltwater yields, meteorological conditions and drainage systems in the annual hydrological cycle.

Lake inventory and potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Nyang Qu Basin of China between 1970 and 2016

There are a large number of glaciers and lakes developed in the Nyang Qu Basin of China. Recent climate change has significant impacted on the high-mountain glacial environment. Rapid melting of glaciers contributes to the formation and expansion of moraine-dammed lakes which increase the probability of glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs). We calculated a multi-temporal lake inventory based on(1) topographic maps in the 1970 s,(2) satellite imageries from 1990 to 2016,(3) First Chinese Glacier Inventory(FCGI),(4) Glacier Inventory of Southeastern Tibet(GIST) and(5) meteorological data. A total of 880 lakes(>0.01 km^2) have been mapped in 2016, with 318 being glacial lakes(GLs) and 462 non-glacier lakes(NGLs). Most of the lakes were mainly located at 4500 m a.s.l. and the lakes dominated by small lakes(<0.1 km^2) where the change of their actual sizes are more significant compared to the larger ones. Meanwhile, we found that there were 178 newly formed GLs and 51 of them had disappeared between 1970 and 2016. During the same period, there can be identified 157 newly formed GLs and 226 had disappeared. We additionally performed a hazard and risk assessment for GL in 2016 and exposed 14 potentially dangerous morainedammed lakes(PDMDLs), covering a total area of 5.88 km2 in the Nyang Qu Basin. There can be found 4 GLs with very high risk, 3 GLs with high risk, 4 GLs with medium risk and 4 GLs with low risk of GLOFs susceptibility. The findings of this study can be used for the future policy of risk management and also be adapted for promoting water resources management.

Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018

Glaciers in the northern Pakistan are a distinctive source of freshwater for the irrigation,drinking and industrial water supplies of the people living in those regions and downstream. These glaciers are under a direct global warming impact as indicated in many previous studies. In this study, we estimated the glacier dynamics in terms of Equilibrium Line Altitude(ELA), mass balance and the snout position variation using remote sensing data between 2001 and 2018. Six glaciers, having area≥ 20 km2 each, situated in the Chitral region(Hindukush Mountains) were investigated in this study. Digital Elevation Model(DEM) and available cloud-free continuous series of Landsat and Sentinel satellite images from minimum snow cover season were used to monitor the variability in the studied glaciers by keeping the status of glaciers in year 2001 as a reference. The annual climatic trends of mean temperature and total precipitation from Chitral weather station were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall’s test. Results revealed a general increase in the ELA, decrease in the glacier mass balance and the retreat of snout position.Average upward shift in the ELA for the entire study area and data period was ~345 ± 93 m at a rate of^13 m.a-1 from the reference year’s position i.e.~4803 m asl. Estimated mean mass balance for the entire study area indicated a decline of-0.106 ± 0.295 m w.e. a-1. Periods of snout retreat and advance in different glaciers were found but the mean value over the entire study area was a retreat of-231 ± 140 m.No obvious relationship was found between the glacier variation trends and the available gauged climatic data possibly due to the presence of debris cover in ablation zones of all the studied glaciers which provides insulation and reduces the immediate climatic effects.

Farmers' perceptions of and adaptations to drought in Herat Province, Afghanistan

Drought is a significant natural hazard in Herat Province, Afghanistan. The objective of this study was to explore farmers' perceptions of the drought's prevalence and characteristics, its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, their strategies for coping with and mitigating it, and types of conflicts and resolution mechanisms. A questionnaire was completed by 147 farming households. The results indicate that farmers' perceptions regarding drought are in line with the results obtained using the precipitation data. Even though the respondents have religious belief in interpreting the weather related issues, they also perceived drought as the climatic and environmental factors such as increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and other factors like war, financial weakness, deforestation, over-exploitation of groundwater, lack of electricity supply etc. The results show that drought has had serious economic impacts, including loss of employment and reduction in crop yield and livestock production, which have reduced farmers' livelihood options and weakened their financial situation. Social impacts have included migration, a sense of hopelessness and loss, conflicts over water, health problems, impacts on the schooling of children, malnutrition, and limits to food options. Significant environmental impacts such as an increase in temperature, pasture and forest degradation, deterioration of water quality, damage to fish and wildlife habitats, and groundwater depletion were also reported. Farmers used local techniques to adapt to drought and lessen its effects. Farmers perceived irrigation water to be a major source of conflict. Local elders, water-user associations, and formal courts were reported to be the most successful conflict resolution methods. It is expected that the results of this study will support policy makers within government and development agencies in Afghanistan to develop future drought adaptation policies.

Erratum to:Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018

The article Spatio-temporal changes in the six major glaciers of the Chitral River basin(Hindukush Region of Pakistan)between 2001 and 2018,written by Jawaria GUL,Sher MUHAMMAD,LIU Shi-yin,Siddique ULLAH,Shakeel AHMAD,Huma HAYAT and Adnan Ahmad TAHIR,was originally published Online First without Open Access.After publication in volume 17,issue 3,page 572-587,the author decided to opt for Open Choice and to make the article an Open Access publication.Therefore,the copyright of the article has been changed to C The Author(s)2020 and the article is forthwith distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),which permits use,duplication,adaptation,distribution and reproduction in any medium or format,as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s)and the source,provide a link to the Creative Commons license,and indicate if changes were made.The original version of this article has been revised due to a retrospective Open Access order.

亚洲水塔失衡与冰雪变化

青藏高原被称为亚洲水塔,是全球最重要和最脆弱的水塔,其最突出的特点是冰雪为核心组成部分。近几十年来,气候变化导致亚洲水塔冰川、积雪等固态水体快速减少,湖泊、河流等液态水体显著增加,因此呈现亚洲水塔的固液失衡特征。与此同时,亚洲水塔北部内流区的冰雪融水储存到内陆盆地,导致水资源增加,南部外流区的冰雪融水汇集在外流大江大河下游或进入印度洋,导致水资源减少,因此呈现水资源分布的空间失衡。冰川整体加速融化,具有显著的东南-西北空间差异特征,表现为东南部和天山地区冰川物质亏损严重,青藏高原西北部亏损相对较小,帕米尔-西昆仑地区冰川相对稳定甚至前进;冰川变化导致冰崩、冰湖溃决等灾害风险增加。积雪覆盖度和年积雪日数总体减少,积雪融化时间有提前趋势,年融雪量和最大雪水当量都呈现下降趋势。未来要高度关注极高海拔地区的冰雪变化过程,加强观测的系统性和技术、手段、方法创新,提高冰雪变化过程模型模拟的时空分辨率,加强不同情景下未来水资源变化预估,研究并提出不同冰雪变化情境下的水安全应对策略。

近50年丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化

冰川是丝绸之路经济带中国境内重要的水资源,对该区农业建设和经济发展至关重要。基于修订后的中国第一次冰川编目数据和最新发布的第二次冰川编目数据,对丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)丝绸之路经济带中国境内现有冰川22523条,面积25516.80 km^2,冰储量约2592.85 km^3,分别占我国冰川相应总量的46.37%、49.22%和57.39%,其中新疆维吾尔自治区冰川储量最为丰富,共计2366.25 km^3。(2)丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川以面积<0.5 km^2的冰川数量最多,共计15519条,占冰川总数量的68.90%;面积则以介于1~5 km^2冰川为主,共计6833.71 km^2,占冰川总面积的26.78%;各山系的冰川退缩海拔高度不同,面积减少速度在各个高度带均有差异。(3)近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川面积共减少4527.43 km^2,变化百分比为-20.88%,有3114条冰川消失,冰川冰储量损失约419.35 km^3。(4)丝绸之路经济带中国境内冰川变化整体呈现自西向东加快趋势,减少速率整体上有自西南向东北加快趋势;冰川朝北消失数量大于朝南消失数量,东北方向面积减少最多,东南方向面积减少最快。(5)近50年间丝绸之路经济带中国境内有暖湿化趋势,冬季气温升高速率大于夏季且降水增加幅度小于夏季的气候组合模式,不利于冰川的积累从而导致冰川退缩;冰川发育规模对冰川退缩也有一定影响,但各山系冰川变化驱动力具有空间差异。